I never meant to imply that it would. I think that hurricane still stands as the worst natural disaster to ever occur in this country. As Max pointed out, and I have no doubt you know as well, Houston wouldn't be what it is today had that not happened. History is a facinating study of "what if's." If anyone wants to read some really good "what if" fiction, check out Harry Turtledove and S. M. Sterling, two excellent writers. Turtledove is especially prolific, and has a Ph.D. in history from UCLA, where he also taught. Guns of the South, his first success, is excellent, as is How Few Remain, both alternate histories of the Civil War. Hey, some of you are discussing college football!
For those of you not checking, Frances is now a SOLID category 4 with winds of 120mph and pressure of 938mb, which is LOW. Forecast models are still fluctuating a bit, but the consensus seems to still be somewhere between just south of the central coast of Florida to near the Florida/Georgia border. The track has moved slightly south from the last forecast but all are pretty much in agreement on a northward turn once it gets inland. Even though the intensity could change a little, most still believe this will make landfall as a MAJOR hurricane - at the very least, a strong cat 3, but more likely a cat 4 or even 5 depending on conditions. I hope everyone in FL and GA are paying close attention to this one.
That is right. UCLA was undefeated and them losing to Miami along with Kansas State losing in the Big 12 Championship Game helped Tennessee (ugh) win the NC.
might be too early to really say....this is from the latest NHC discussion: "THE SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS..............WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF FRANCES...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO THE 00Z MODEL TRACKS SHIFT A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD." http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/020225.shtml?
Even with that potential more westerly track, it's still supposed to turn n/nw about the time it makes landfall (but the more westerly track could cause it to hit Miami before turning north ) Conditions look favorable for it to intensify.
I don't think any jog to the left will be significant enough to move it into the Gulf. The ridge of high pressure holding it back will eventually let up and allow it to move north. Thing is, looking at the individual computer models, the most reliable have it going more northward and the least reliable model has it heading more westward, but none have it moving westward enough to hit Miami at this point. It is a safe bet that it will intensify. Everything in front of it - high altitude wind, air pressure, humidity, water temperature - is all favorable. I don't know if it will get to cat 5 status, but it could come close.
Yah....it doesn't look like it will hit Miami, but the UKMET has it going accross the middle of Florida, into the Gulf, and then over to skirt the coast of Louisiana. Granted, the UKMET is less reliable for Atlantic storms, but its still interesting nonetheless.
WOO HOO!!!! 5 DAY WEEKEND!!!! Well, it's not like I have classes on Thursdays anyway. Man Thursday is college night too, and the outer bands won't hit until late Friday at the earliest, so I guess I'll be 'enjoying' the Labor Day weekend. Oh, and also for anyone's knowledge, straight from the University:
Yeah, this ridge of high pressure is giving them fits. The GFS and GFDL are still the most reliable and have been all season long. I think the next 12 hours will tell a lot.
Yup and they are in much better agreement with the others. Still, none of them has shifted as far south as Miami or the Keys. They are still right about center on the eastern coast of Florida. Obviously, they differ as to where it will go after, but only the UKMET really has it heading out into the Gulf for any extended period. I hope everyone in Florida is evacuating or doing whatever they need to do. This is a scary hurricane. 145mph winds with gusts to 180mph at the surface. Anything over 100 feet (i.e. buildings, etc) can expect those to jump to 160mph and 190mph respectively. Yikes.
They are calling it a "once in a generation" storm. I don't like that type of language at all. Add to the mix this storm's size and you have a recipe for an awful couple of days for Florida. I'd urge everyone to remember the folks in the path of this monster in your prayers tonight.
I'm in Orlando now and the city is almost in panic. There is still debris from the last hurricane all over the place and the Orlando airport is going to close at 12 tomorrow. I don't think that the shows are going to cancel, so it looks like I'm gonna have to ride this one out.
