Ironic that this could blow through Florida, isn't it? But, more importantly, I hope everyone in Florida and the Bahamas are paying REALLY close attention to this one. This is a beast of a hurricane. The visible satellite image of it is like something you'd see in a weather textbook. The National Hurricane Center has been right on the money all along with the forecast track, so somewhere along the middle Florida coast seems pretty likely at this point. Not to mention a potential direct hit on the Bahamas. Be careful! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
I wanted this thing just to become a threat so I could make all kinds of stupid jokes. But fortunately I've heard it really isn't much of a threat at all.
I'm at that URL every six hours trying to be the first to read the full updates. Since last night, I started catching the intermediate updates as well, and as it gets closer to land, I'll probably wake up at night just to catch that 1:00 a.m. update. I must be a sick person to be this interested in something this destructive. If I ever win the lottery, I'm going back to school to become a meteorologist.
When they hit somewhere else, I find hurricanes fascinating. When they hit Houston, I find them terrifying.
We actually got a category 1 last year. We didn't get the worst of it because we were on the dryer side of it, but it did come through the bay. Plus, in 2001, we got the most destructive tropical disturbance ever to hit the Texas coast in Tropical Storm Allison. Pole, I feel your pain.
All that schooling didn't do squat for our local weather knuckleheads. Seems the same in every city/state. Half the time they are right and the other half they are wrong. rolleyes: Put a dart board up. Half of it "Rain," the other half "Sunny" and let me throw a dart to get the weather forecast. Guaranteed to be just as accurate as these clowns.
Mike Pass at Fox 26 used to work at my office. He used to get very very excited during hurricane season. I swear he was begging for a hurricane to come this way.
I just relo'd from the Virgin Islands and my friends there are busy today putting up hurricane shutters! Timing is everything!
you're right, Jeff. the only hurricane i can REMEMBER looking this impressive was Hurricane Freaking Gilbert. unbelievable storm...dodged a huge bullet with that one. both frances and gilbert developed way out in the atlantic, closer to Africa than America. all that time moving over warm, open waters. yikes.
Interesting how widely divergent the forecast models have become on this one. There are so many different things at work - two other tropical storms off the northeast coast of the US, a big ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic, a cool front over the western US...crazy. Still looks like the central coast of Florida is most likely, but not telling at this point. This is the visible satellite meaning you won't be able to see anything after dark. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html
Yes, but right now, percentages only go out to Friday, so the percentages would be quite low. The heaviest percentage for Friday is still in the Bahamas. Still, there's a three percent chance it will be in Key West on Friday. That means not only would it's direction vary from the consensus, but so would the speed. Obviously, if it hits Key West, it will end up in the Gulf.
Given that two of the more reliable models have it actually turning northward in about 48 hours while another has it staying west and hitting the lower Florida coast, I'd say it is pretty unlikely it remains westward enough to get it into the gulf. If it did, it would most likely be after it passes over the Florida peninsula and heads into the northeaster corner of the gulf. Pole, besides the NHC and Weather channel, what other sites do you visit for tracking?
I like wunderground and intellicast, but I'm really trying to train myself not to go to weather.com (I hate pop-ups!). Mostly I go to nhc.noaa.gov, but I'm certainly interested to hear about other sites I might be missing.
