I remember when the weather guys had no idea where a hurricane was heading. It seems like the last couple of years these guys are getting better and better at predicting their tracks.
last I heard it was heading for houston. but that was from one of those local news blurb adverts that is always trying to SCARE THE CRAP OUT OF YOU INTO WATCHING THEIR PROGRAM AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!
I've been watching the National Hurricance Center online tracking area for the past few years. Like my dad, I'm a bit of a weather junkie. They are getting really amazing at pedictions. They had this one's path very close to where it landed for the past 2 days which is remarkable. Even 3 or 4 days ago, they had a pretty good idea saying they thought it would go between the Yucatan Peninsula and Florida and then turn north and eventually northeast.
and at the time of that discussion, they were getting better with the predictions, but they weren't seemingly just "nailing 'em" every time like they seem to be this year and last.
Jeff, I am also a junkie. They are much better, but this one was easy to predict as a cold front came down and it just followed along the leading edge of it. When there is no front at all to pull the storm, that is when the predictions are way wacked out. I remember Hurricane Allen, that 200+ MPH storm that parked off of Kingsville and weakened into a category 1 storm before making land fall. The storm was supposed to hammer Corpus as a Cat 5, but thank god they got that wrong. DD
Yeah, that is true. This cold front was quite an abberration especially judging from the 85 degree weather outside on freaking August 13!!! But, even so, their forecast models are really amazing. They have had a few models for quite a while, but they have also added a couple in the past year. Usually, the first few are tougher to predict because they need to see which computer model seems to be the most accurate that year. But, with some of the new technology, that is becoming less of an issue. They still haven't gotten things down to precise landfall and that is huge because with storms like this, you have such a small area that will receive the worst of the damage and storm surge with the size of the eye. But, the fact that they can pretty much tell you the general region 2 or 3 days ahead of time is stunning.
i agree...credit where credit is due. they called this one and bonnie...despite the fact bonnie, in particular, was already in the Gulf and still heading west. pretty amazing.
I live in Savannah GA. Looks like the storm wont go through us, it's track is to go out in the atlantic after passing through FL. Glad to see that. Good luck to the Floridians though!
We've got some relatives in Ft Myers, FL and Cape Coral, FL that the wife just got off the phone with. Trees are going down everywhere right now and it hasn't even hit. Some weren't worried earlier, but all are worried now. They are scared and they have no where to go - too late to leave. I've been through the eye of Alicia which was only a 3 so I know a little of what they are experiencing. We also went through Homestead, FL about 2 weeks before Andrew came through. The relatives there said that it was completely wiped out.
My parents went through Carla which was a strong 4. They said they listened while the shingled peeled off the roof of the house. I went through Alicia and it sucked, but there was nothing worse, IMO, than Allison and it was just a tropical storm.
My parents went through Carla, they got power back the next day. Last year we had Claudette and we lost power for four days, that was my first Hurricane, and I don't want another one.
My parents live in Naples, and they had to abandon the house and get a room at a hotel. I went through Andrew and it was horrible.
I remember filling my tub with water for Alicia and after the storm was over, I emptied the tub to take a shower. The next day the water was off for almost a week. I melted the ice cube trays to get water to wash my hair after 2 days. yuk.
During Alicia, my family's house and the houses on either side of us (just three of us) lost power for 10 days. Everyone else in the neighborhood got it back within a day or two. And, the guy that worked for HL&P around the corner had a crew in his friggin' yard that AFTERNOON setting his power back up.
