[HardBallTimes] Dorkapalooza '09

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/dorkapalooza-2009-the-sports-analytics-conference-at-mit/

A small recap of some of what happened at Morey's Sports Analytics Conference over the weekend.

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"I code a lot in R"
—Mike Zarren, assistant executive director of basketball operations, Boston Celtics

That might scare a lot of would-be employees of basketball teams, but it got a very warm reception at MIT. The growth of basketball analysis has been completely unlike baseball analysis. In baseball, it took decades for front offices to realize the value of analytics. In basketball, teams are snapping up analysts before any of the good stuff gets out to the public. That's great for teams, but bad for statheads.

Zarren, Morey, and Denver Nuggets director of quantitative analysis Dean Oliver were all extremely circumspect in discussing their teams' use of analytics. ESPN columnist John Hollinger was surprised that teams didn't pool their resources, but none of the team employees seemed very receptive to that idea. Morey wouldn't even reveal how many analysts he had on his staff.

The most talkative of the panelists was Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban. That may not surprise ... well, anybody, but Cuban didn't open his mouth just to talk. Even when debating Hollinger on the merits of the now-infamous Devin Harris for Jason Kidd trade, Cuban was reasoned, analytical, and quantitative; he used terms like "assigning weighted probabilities" and "portfolio management." He might be North America's first stathead franchise owner.

I really hope that the fraternity of MLB owners lets this guy buy a team one day. It's clear that he loves to win and that he'll look at novel ways to help his team do that. Among his (many) comments:

* The least valuable data in basketball is the boxscore data. The Mavericks have to track and capture their own data. I'll note that this is in contrast to baseball, where boxscore data from a century ago can be translated to a variety of advanced metrics.
* The Wages of Wins has the dumbest data he's ever heard.
* The NBA needs video experts who can automatically read, interpret, and capture elements.
* The Mavericks use a +/- system that is extremely similar to Tom Tango's WOWY analysis.
* Basketball teams are most profitable when they're rebuilding, and the marginal value of a win in basketball is about half a million dollars.
* There are thirteen guys on the court at any time, and three of them have 80 percent of the influence. The audience, familiar with his frequent criticism of officiating, roared.


The highlight of the discussion was when Cuban mentioned that they don't share any of their information with other clubs. Without missing a beat, Morey said that Cuban was always willing to share his referee ratings. The crowd loved it.

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Another recap:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=584

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By my unofficial count, 12 different NBA franchises were represented at MIT's Stata Center to go along with nearly all the prominent statistical analysts who are not associated with teams. Included amongst that group were a pair of general managers (co-chair Daryl Morey and Portland's Kevin Pritchard), an owner (Dallas' Mark Cuban) and no fewer than eight people in the employ of Morey's Houston Rockets (quoting ESPN.com's John Hollinger: "Fortunately for Daryl, there's no luxury tax for analysts.")

From that perspective, the day's highlight was the Basketball Analytics panel moderated by ESPN.com's Marc Stein and made up of a reluctant Morey, Cuban, Hollinger, Dean Oliver of the Denver Nuggets and Mike Zarren of the Boston Celtics. Because the teams who make extensive use of statistical analysis believe it to be a competitive advantage, none of the employees wanted to be especially forthcoming. Morey was particularly circumspect.

Fortunately, Cuban was there to liven things up. While he did not share the specifics of how the Mavericks use numbers, Cuban did offer additional insight into the Jason Kidd/Devin Harris deal in the midst of an impromptu debate on the trade. Cuban was willing to essentially admit that Harris has the brighter future while arguing that Kidd better fit Dallas' timeline and implying the value of the trade lay in having Kidd for two years and then taking advantage of his expiring contract.

Cuban also sparred with Zarren over which of the teams had the better offer for Kevin Garnett and offered his usual critique of the NBA's refereeing, arguing that three of the 13 people on the court had 80 percent of the impact. When Cuban, discussing teams' reluctance to share any of their analytical work with competitors, said he definitely doesn't give anything to his division rivals in Houston, Morey shot back, "Except referee ratings."
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Besides the hot-hand study, the other key observation I took from the conference was that an interesting frontier for future exploration for analysts in all sports is taking their work to the player level. That is, will players eventually be able to use numbers for the benefit of their own games? We already saw some evidence of this phenomenon in Michael Lewis' Shane Battier profile, but it was made clear that Battier is the only Rockets player who uses the analysis generated by the team.

During the Baseball Analytics panel, former Houston Astros GM Tim Purpura mentioned that he would use information about pitchers' success on various counts to convince them of the importance of getting ahead. Meanwhile, Cuban used the example of players' shooting percentage from different spots on the floor, saying he'd almost always see the player slide over to where they were at their best not long after a conversation.

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I think that was referring to defense.