report due tomorrow. what do you wanna bet the Times buries it on page A13? http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_us&refer=home&sid=avn64.gOLNdI -- Employment Growth Accelerated in October: U.S. Economy Preview Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers probably added 175,000 workers to payrolls in October, the most in five months, while the unemployment rate held at a three-year low of 5.4 percent, the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists shows. The Labor Department's report will be released three days after the Nov. 2 presidential election, which polls show is a toss- up. President George W. Bush says his tax cuts have helped the economy, while Democratic challenger John Kerry says they haven't boosted jobs. "The focus this week will be jobs related -- will President Bush keep his job and by how much will payrolls rebound in October,'' said Joseph Abate, senior U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York. The projected employment gain would follow September's rise of 96,000, less than forecast in part because of hurricanes in the Southeast. Faster job growth is needed to help boost incomes, spending and the economy. A Commerce Department report tomorrow is forecast to show Americans spent more than they earned last month. Employment growth cooled from earlier this year, when a quarter million jobs a month were added through May. Less job growth in September probably helped hold incomes to a 0.3 percent gain during the month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Personal spending probably rose twice as much as incomes last month, the survey showed. Fed Policy The jobs statistics will be the last Federal Reserve policy makers will see before their Nov. 10 meeting. All 46 economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast central bankers to raise their benchmark overnight lending rate a quarter point to 2 percent. Fed officials have signaled as much in recent comments. "No doubt, the recent run-up in energy prices poses some challenges, but the evidence indicates that, without some further material shock, aggregate demand is on track, consistent with sustained economic growth,'' Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said in a speech two days ago. Manufacturing, responding to increased third-quarter consumer demand and business spending on equipment, probably expanded in October, a report tomorrow is forecast to show. The Institute of Supply Management's gauge of factory activity is forecast to hold at 58.5 in October. Readings above 50 signal expansion and the index has shown growth since May 2003. A survey last week showed that record crude oil prices have so far led to little change in corporate spending plans. More said they plan to boost spending instead of reduce it. Eighty-six percent of manufacturers said their ``spending plans are little changed'' this year, according to the National Association for Business Economics. Ten percent expect to buy more business equipment, while 5 percent said they plan to reduce spending. Energy Costs People are drawing down savings to spend at a time when energy costs have increased. Energy prices may increase consumers' fuel bills by $60 billion and may subtract as much as 0.9 percentage point from fourth-quarter growth, according to an Oct. 22 research report by economists at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. "We are seeing retail as OK,'' said Joseph Galli, chief executive of Newell Rubbermaid Inc., the maker of Rubbermaid plastic containers, in an interview last week. ``For our products it certainly hasn't been gangbusters, but its held up OK.'' The economy grew 3.7 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter after a 3.3 percent pace in the second, the government said two days ago. Consumer spending rose at a 4.6 percent annual rate, almost three times the pace of the prior quarter. Since 2001, the economy has grown an average 3.5 percent, faster than the 3.2 percent average since 1970. `Rapid Expansion' "This rapid expansion has been concentrated in the five quarter following the 2003 Bush tax cuts,'' according to a report from Tim Kane and Rea Hederman, analysts at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based research institute. "Since the third quarter of 2003, growth has averaged 4.6 percent.'' President Bush said he wants to keep taxes low and is counting on increased revenue from a faster economy to help shrink the budget deficit. If elected, Kerry said he promises to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to reduce the budget deficit. The shortfall in the just-ended fiscal year widened to a record $413 billion, partly a reflection of increased spending to fight the war in Iraq. While a record in dollar terms, the gap is 3.7 percent of gross domestic product, well below the all-time high of 5.9 percent of growth reached in 1983. A daily Washington Post and ABC News poll conducted Oct. 27- 30 showed Bush and Kerry each got the support of 48 percent of likely voters nationwide. The poll questioned 2,617 adults identified as likely to vote and the margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. A survey by Zogby International for Reuters Group Plc over the same period found the same result. In the Post poll, the economy and jobs ranked as the single most important issue for 24 percent of respondents, followed by the war in Iraq with 21 percent and terrorism at 20 percent.
It grew at 3.7%. The predicted growth was 4.5%. It grew slower than expected. The 175,000 jobs created is a good thing, and it even creates a few thousand more than those needed to match the new amount of applicants out there. So that is good news indeed.
I hope the good numbers keep going up. I'd like to see basso chime in on the "To few soldiers" thread he created.
You say the report due tomorrow but the article says the report is due Friday...which is it? Well I will be happy to tell you that the OFFICIAL (government) numbers are due out on Friday. The 175,000 is an estimate. If the Friday morning numbers come in below estimate than the market will react negatively if above than positively. I wouldn't get too excited because lately the estimates have been above the actual numbers... And unless the number is about 5 million than President Bush's tax cuts will have NOT lived up to its promise.
This is great news, but there are some liberal ostrich types that won't adhere cognitive recognition if it helps President Bush in any way... If this had taken place under Kerry, would it have been better cited, and delivered?
Job cut plans top 100,000 -- again Challenger survey finds worst two months of job cut announcements since early 2003. November 2, 2004: 10:32 AM EST NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Employers announced plans to cut more than 100,000 jobs again in October, capping the worst two months for layoffs since early 2003, an executive search and job placement firm said Tuesday. October job cut plans actually slipped a bit to 101,840 jobs from 107,863 in September, according to a survey by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The last time announced job cuts topped 100,000 for two straight months was January and February 2003. "The job market appears to be stuck in the mud. Every time it looks as if things are going to rebound for the nation's workers, a series of reports deflates the optimism," said CEO John Challenger in a statement. The survey found telecommunications with the most job cut announcements, with 16,664 jobs in the sector. It's the third straight month the sector has seen rising layoff announcements. Other sectors with the biggest cuts included health care, industrial goods and financial services. The survey puts the total announced job cuts at 826,160 for the first 10 months of the year. That puts it within reach of the 1 million job cut threshold for the fourth straight year. Before 2001 the largest number of job cuts ever announced was 677,795 in 1998. It would take job cuts of 86,920 the last two months of the year to reach the 1 million mark, slightly above the pace of the first 10 months of the year but well below the pace of the last couple of months. Challenger said so far evidence suggests the outlook does not look good heading into the end of the year. "Two consecutive months of 100,000-plus job cuts does not convey a sense of confidence about future business conditions," he said. "The fact that the number of help wanted ads across the country continues to fall further suggests a grim outlook on business conditions." Jobs has been a hotly-debated issue in this year's presidential election, which appears to be a close to a dead heat heading into Tuesday's vote. Democratic candidate John Kerry has repeatedly pointed out that President Bush is the first president since the Great Depression to see a drop in overall employment during his term, while the president argues that the economy is now back on track, adding 1.7 million jobs the last 12 months. Employers posted stronger-than-expected job gains for three months this spring, starting in March. But since then employment numbers have come in weaker than expected. The October employment report is due out Nov. 5. Still the 2004 job cut announcements are far below what was seen in October 2003, as well as the first ten months of 2003. There were 171,874 job cut announcements in October 2003, bringing the 10-month total last year to 1,043,954. http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/02/news/economy/jobless_challenger/?cnn=yes I didn't think I should start a another thread, since this is relevant.
The article (Bloomberg) referers to an estimate - of a BLS estimate. Estimates such as the one noted have been less than reliable over the past year - in fact when they are off - they are always on the high side. Would be great to see anything over 150000, but we'll have to wait an see. Because productivity continues to grow at very high rates (maybe because of the growth of transaction processing and call centers off shore so the labor is now paid by invoice instead of a paycheck??) the economy is able absorb growth without necessarily adding jobs. So using old models to translate gdp growth to job growth might not work. I haven't heard the Fed address the issue of offshoring and how it effects productivity growth.
