Find the Fraud!!!

http://www.fanball.com/web/ph/content/feature.cfc?ID=25507

Vickers: Find the Fraud
By Ben Vickers
Associate Editor
Wed, Dec. 05, 05:00 CST


It's time to play everyone's favorite NBA party game:

Find the Fraud!

That's right, we are looking at the top-10 in points, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals; then asking you, the faithful Fanball reader to:

Find the Fraud!

Yep, you need to find the player who simply doesn't belong in the top 10 of that particular category.

Okay, here we go:

Which of these players does not belong in the top 10 for points per game:

1. Allen Iverson (27.8 points per game entering Tuesday night’s action)
2. Paul Pierce (27.1)
3. Kobe Bryant (26.2)
4. Nick Van Exel (26.2)
5. Vince Carter (25.3)
6. Michael Jordan (24.8)
7. Shaquille O'Neal (24.6)
8. Tracy McGrady (24.6)
9. Tim Duncan (24.5)
10. Antoine Walker (24.4)

If you guessed Nick Van Exel, you’re correct!

While we think Van Exel will score more points this season with Antonio McDyess on the sidelines, we don’t believe for a second that he will continue to average almost 11 points more than his career average of 15.8. Look for Van Exel’s average to settle in somewhere around 20 points per game.

Now, let’s find the fraud at assists. Which one of the following players does not belong in the top 10?

1. Andre Miller (10.6)
2. Jason Kidd (10.2)
3. Gary Payton (9.2)
4. John Stockton (9.0)
5. Jamal Tinsley (8.7)
6. Jason Williams (8.5)
7. Stephon Marbury (8.5)
8. Terrell Brandon (8.4)
9. Anthony Carter (7.6)
10. Steve Nash (7.4)

Hmm. This one is a bit tougher. While your natural instincts may lead you to guess Marbury—after all, we can’t remember ever seeing him pass—the correct answer is: Jason Williams.

Although J-Will has more freedom in Memphis, we aren’t convinced that he will be able to average 3.1 more assists this season than he posted last year. With all apologies to Pau Gasol, Williams had better scorers around him in Sacto and while he should score more points himself as a Grizzly, he won’t produce this many dimes all season long.





Moving on to rebounds, which fraud doesn’t belong among the top-10 (actually, it’s 11 with ties) glass cleaners in the Association?

1. Tim Duncan (13.1)
2. Danny Fortson (13.1)
3. Dikembe Mutombo (12.5)
4. Kevin Garnett (12.5)
5. Lorenzen Wright (11.5)
6. Antoine Walker (11.2)
7. Ben Wallace (10.8)
8. Elton Brand (10.8)
9. Shaquille O’Neal (10.8)
10. Shareef Abdur Rahim (10.2)
11. Vlade Divac (10.2)

Divac is the obvious choice, but we will exclude him because of his gutty play with Chris Webber on the bench. Wright is another good choice, but as the only true rebounder in Memphis, we think his numbers will remain obscenely high. Instead, our fraud is Antoine Walker. Does the versatile forward have the talent to pull down 11.2 rebounds per game? Yes. Will he do it all season? No.

Walker has never averaged much than 10.2 rebounds per game and that happened all the way back in the 1997-98 season. Last year, Walker averaged 8.9 boards per game. As the season wears on, look for Walker’s love affair with the three-pointer to grow worse, preventing him hitting the offensive glass.

Which of the following hoopsters is the fraud in blocks?

1. Ben Wallace (3.38)
2. Dikembe Mutombo (3.31)
3. Tim Duncan (2.73)
4. Shaquille O’Neal (2.69)
5. Raef LaFrentz (2.62)
6. Jermaine O’Neal (2.53)
7. Pau Gasol (2.29)
8. Erick Dampier (2.22)
9. Alonzo Mourning (2.20)
10. Michael Olowokandi (2.18)

Gasol’s numbers are a bit of surprise and they could decrease if he loses playing time when Michael Dickerson gets back in the rotation. That said, we’re not selecting the high-flying foreigner as our fraud. Instead, we’ll go with Dampier.

The big man is a solid shot blocker, but he only averages 1.3 swats per game for his career. Even when he averaged a career-high 32.4 minutes per game in 1997-98, Dampier managed to block just 1.7 shots per game. This season, Dampier is playing only 26.4 minutes per contest. Look for his block numbers to fall slightly as the season progresses.

The final category in “Find the Fraud” is steals. Here is the current top 10:

1. Allen Iverson (2.73)
2. Baron Davis (2.19)
3. Jason Williams (2.18)
4. Kobe Bryant (2.12)
5. Shane Battier (2.12)
6. Jamal Tinsley (2.00)
7. Shawn Marion (1.95)
8. Darrell Armstrong (1.89)
9. Karl Malone (1.88)
10. Anfernee Hardaway (1.84)

Notice how all of these players are quick to the ball, except one: Karl Malone. While we admire the Mailman for playing some serious defense this season, we find it hard to believe that the 38-year-old power forward will set a career-high in steals this season. Look for his average to fall back to 1.0 steals per game.

That’s it for this edition of Find the Fraud. If you have other fraud candidates, let us know. We may use your selections in a future article.

 

Yes Finn, but the fact that they said what they said about Marbury's assist numbers is strange. Even though he takes his share of shots, he has had pretty solid assist numbers, even in Jersey.