With two games left, what is the best scenario to get the fifth and 14th drafts "seeds?" I think it needs to go this way: the Cavs must beat the Pacers Tuesday while the Bucks must beat Toronto. Then, Wednesday Toronto must beat the Cavs, the Bucks must beat the Pistons, and Philly must beat the Pacers. Oh, of course Houston has to lose to Denver and Portland or, if the Cavs do win another game, we can afford to BEAT Portland and end the year on a winning note.
If Cleveland wins today we are in great shape. Unless we win both road games we would have the 5th spot with an outside shot at the 4th spot (if Denver win's their other one and we lose to Portland). If Cleveland wins today I think we are also assured of getting Toronto's pick (either 14 or 15). If Indiana beats Cleveland, I probably have to route for Toronto--I would rather be assured of the 15th pick than risk funky stuff happening where we might not get the pick this year.
If we lost at least one game and/or NY or Cleveland wins a game, 5th place is locked. i don't know about Denver ... odds are not good. It seems our odds at getting the 3rd pick are just as good at getting the 7th pick.
I don't think this is the way to look at it. If we end up in the 5th spot the odds are much better that we get any of the top 3 (around 30% I think) than we fall down to 7 (2 lucky teams jumping us, around 14% I think). More than likely we move down 1 spot and get 6th pick or move up 2-4 spots--I'll take that situation.
