Insider's Lottery Mock Draft by Chad Ford Send an Email to Chad Ford Also Below: Draft rumors: Trade talk starts heating up . . . | NBA Draft workout report Inside the NBA Draft: What will the Rockets, Bulls & Warriors do? NBA playoffs: Four more questions you were afraid to ask The dust has settled on the NBA lottery and it looks like the winner is none other than the Chicago Bulls. Sure, the Rockets won the lottery Sunday, but by the Bulls nailing down second place, all of the pressure is now off Jerry Krause. If Jay Williams falls to No. 2, the Bulls get the best player in the draft. If Yao Ming falls to No. 2, it isn't like Krause passed on a sure thing to draft Yao. Either way, the Bulls are sending signals anyway they can that they're willing to trade the pick for a more established star. While visions of the Hornets' Baron Davis, the Cavs' Andre Miller, the T-Wolves' Wally Szczerbiak and the requisite large Giordanos stuffed pizza swirl in Krause's head, the Bulls suddenly seem determined to end their losing ways and start winning. The Warriors . . . well, it ain't going to be pretty. Here's Insider's first crack at the first-round mock draft. Today we cover the lottery. Wednesday we'll finish up the rest of the first round. 1. Houston Rockets Insider's Pick: Yao Ming, C, China Number Two: Mike Dunleavy, F, Duke Sleeper Pick: Caron Butler, F, UConn The Skinny: The Rockets sent out strong signals Monday that they are leaning toward keeping their pick and drafting Yao. They'll spend the next few weeks researching the legal issues involved and working with Yao's U.S. representative, Erik Zhang. If they can get comfortable with Yao's availability, it seems like the team has already reached a preliminary consensus that it can't pass on the big man. Still, a trade isn't out of the question. Expect the Rockets to field some interesting offers for the pick. But, in the end, no team will be able to offer what the Rockets desperately need -- a skilled big man to plug the gaping hole in the middle left by Kelvin Cato. If, for some reason, Yao balks at playing in Houston, the Rockets may try to make a deal to move down a few slots and grab either Dunleavy or Butler. 2. Chicago Bulls Insider's Pick: Jay Williams, G, Duke Number Two: Yao Ming, C, China Sleeper Pick: Mike Dunleavy, F, Duke The Skinny: Take a deep sigh of relief Bulls fans. It looks like Krause will be powerless to select Yao Ming. After the last few years of drafting raw teenagers like Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jamal Crawford, the Bulls will finally get their hands on a player who can step in right away and add a few extra W's. But before you get too excited, remember that Krause has hung a huge for sale sign around Williams's neck. He'd prefer to grab a more proven player like Andre Miller or Baron Davis. If he can swing a trade, he'll probably do it. 3. Golden State Warriors Insider's Pick: Drew Gooden, F, Kansas Number Two: Mike Dunleavy, F, Duke Sleeper Pick: Chris Wilcox, F, Maryland The Skinny: There's no subtle way to put this -- the Warriors got screwed. No team wanted Jay Williams more. Even Yao had a upside that the Warriors can't ignore. Now they are drafting in a pretty murky gray area. They'd probably be looking at Dunleavy here, but there's a good chance that the combo of Jerry West and Mike Dunleavy Sr. will find a way to convince the Warriors that Dunleavy will go back to school if he thinks he'll be stuck on the Warriors. Wilcox might be the second most intriguing prospect, but Antawn Jamison is doing his best to push for the starting power forward slot this year. If he gets it, the Warriors need help at the three. Gooden is one of the most versatile players in the draft and makes a lot of sense here. If Jamison struggles at the four, Gooden can play there. If Jamison thrives at the four, Gooden can develop into a solid three. 4. Memphis Grizzlies Insider's Pick: Mike Dunleavy, F, Duke Number Two: Caron Butler, F, UConn Sleeper Pick: Nikoloz Tskitishvili, F, Georgia The Skinny: Everyone seems pretty convinced that Jerry West and Mike Dunleavy Sr. are in cahoots. Whether that is a classic West smoke screen or not remains to be seen. If the Grizzlies draft Dunleavy, Shane Battier will be the sixth man and Stromile Swift may be the odd man out. Another strong possibility is Butler. The team needs his athleticism and toughness as much or more than it needs Dunleavy's shooting touch. And don't count out Tskitishvili here. Memphis has scouted him extensively and can envision Pau Gasol and Skita playing side by side. 5. Denver Nuggets Insider's Pick: Dajuan Wagner, G, Memphis Number Two: Caron Butler, F, UConn Sleeper Pick: Nikoloz Tskitishvili, F, Georgia The Skinny: The Nuggets wanted Williams but with him off the board, Wagner may be the next best thing. He's not a true point guard, but the Nuggets need help at both backcourt positions. They want to make a run at Jason Kidd next year anyway, and a Wagner-Kidd backcourt would be lethal. The team also is very high on Butler, but it'll probably address its small forward need with French player Boris Diaw with the 25th pick. The wildcard is definitely Tskitishvili. Nuggets assistant GM Dave Fredman has a track record of going international and Tskitishvili's skills for a 7-footer are so intriguing, he may be worth the risk. 6. Cleveland Cavaliers Insider's Pick: Caron Butler, F, UConn Number Two: Chris Wilcox, F, Maryland Sleeper Pick: Maybyner "Nene" Hilario, F, Brazil The Skinny: The Cavs will be delighted if Butler falls to them. They have him rated as their top small forward and feel he'll add more athleticism to a team that sorely lacks it. Drafting Butler would also allow them to shop disgruntled small forward Lamond Murray. If Butler is gone, Wilcox will also get a look here. The team only has Tyrone Hill for one more year and Chris Mihm, maybe the Cavs' next Trajan Langdon. An Andre Miller-Wilcox tandem would be a nightmare on the break, but Wilcox may be a little raw for the Cavs' purposes. The Cavs have also been keeping close tabs on Nene, but you wonder, with DeSagana Diop already in the fold, whether they really need another raw international big man. 7. New York Knicks Insider's Pick: Chris Wilcox, F, Maryland Number Two: Curtis Borchardt, C, Stanford Sleeper Pick: Dajuan Wagner, G, Memphis The Skinny: Knicks president Scott Layden wants Yao, but does he have enough assets to work out a trade? The team would have to jettison Latrell Sprewell and the Rockets would have to be willing to take him. Wilcox, if he's available here, would give the Knicks a young, strong and explosive power forward they've been looking for. Lots of folk have Borchardt projected here just because he's a big man. The problem is that the Knicks still believe in Marcus Camby as a center. There are a lot of rumors about Wagner and the Knicks floating around New York, but they're mostly hype. Unless Layden can find a way to move Charlie Ward or Mark Jackson, he just can't afford to put another guard on the roster. 8. Los Angeles Clippers (from Atlanta) Insider's Pick: Curtis Borchardt, C, Stanford Number Two: Nikoloz Tskitishvili, F, Georgia Sleeper Pick: Maybyner "Nene" Hilario, F, Brazil The Skinny: Look for the Clipps to draft some insurance just in case his negotiations with Michael Olowokandi go south this summer. Borchardt is a fine shot blocker and good perimeter shooter, something the Clipps don't really have in their big men. If Borchardt is gone, the team thinks Tskitishvili might be a decent long-term replacement for Lamar Odom. Hilario is a bigger project, but some teams think he could be a Ben Wallace-type player right away with his strength, leaping ability and shot-blocking skills. 9. Phoenix Suns Insider's Pick: Nikoloz Tskitishvili, F, Georgia Number Two: Maybyner "Nene" Hilario, F, Brazil Sleeper Pick: Amare Stoudemire, F, HS Senior The Skinny: The Suns love Wilcox and may be willing to trade up to get him. If they can't they'll have a tough decision among three raw fours. Tskitishvili is the most fundamentally sound and the most versatile. But, he'll have to add another 30 pounds to his frame to be effective in the low post. Hilario already has the NBA body, but doesn't have much of an offensive game. Still, the Suns could use his shot blocking a rebounding. No one is sure exactly what you'll get with Stoudemire. He too has an NBA body and plays with a lot of determination. But he is very raw on both ends of the court -- no one is sure exactly what he can do besides dunk. 10. Miami Heat Insider's Pick: Jared Jeffries, F, Indiana Number Two: Nikoloz Tskitishvili, F, Georgia Sleeper Pick: Qyntel Woods, F, Northeast Mississippi CC The Skinny: Pat Riley has pined for a tall small forward in the mold of Lamar Odom for the last few years. There really isn't a player in this draft who fits the description exactly. Jeffries may be the closest, but doesn't have the athleticism that Odom does. Considering he was recruited by Bob Knight, however, means he must have the discipline that Riley covets. Tskitishvili has the versatility of Odom, but doesn't play defense -- a big, big no-no for Riley. It's doubtful he'll be around here anyway. Woods is the athlete Riley has searched for, but his off-the-court issues will likely scare Riley away. 11. Washington Wizards Insider's Pick: Qyntel Woods, F, Northeast Mississippi CC Number Two: Chris Marcus, C, Western Kentucky Sleeper Pick: Dan Dickau, G, Gonzaga The Skinny: If Woods falls this far, the Wizards will snatch him up. Some scouts still insist that on talent alone, he's the best player in the draft. Michael Jordan is looking for a dynamic small forward to replace him when he retires at the end of next season and if Woods is anywhere near the talent scouts say he is, he's worth the risk. A year playing under the watchful eye of Jordan should be enough to teach this kid what he needs to do to succeed in the NBA. If Woods is gone, Marcus may be the best player left on the board. Dickau is a real sleeper here. This may seem high, but Jordan would really like to upgrade the point guard position. The early word is that he like him. 12. Los Angeles Clippers Insider's Pick: Kareem Rush, G, Missouri Number Two: Chris Marcus, C, Western Kentucky Sleeper Pick: Maybyner "Nene" Hilario, F, Brazil The Skinny: If the team can add Borchardt with the No. 8 pick, it'll try to replace the loss of Eric Piatkowski's long-range shooting this summer. Point guard Keyon Dooling is close with Rush and the early word around the league is that the team is very high on Kareem. If the Clippers can't get Borchardt, Marcus seems like a no-brainer here. 13. Milwaukee Bucks Insider's Pick: Maybyner "Nene" Hilario, F, Brazil Number Two: Marcus Haislip, F, Tennessee Sleeper Pick: Frank Williams, G, Illinois The Skinny: Some inside the Bucks still believe that had Sam Cassell, Ray Allen and Glenn Robinson been healthy, this team would be headed for the NBA Finals. George Karl isn't so sure. Either way, drafting where the Bucks will likely be drafting, there won't be anyone available who can come in and make a major impact. No one is blaming Anthony Mason, but the team will lose Darvin Ham this summer and it could use a workman-like banger. Both Hilario and Haislip are incredibly strong (Haislip can bench 400 pounds) and can jump out of the gym. On potential, either player might be a steal at this point in the draft. However, the edge goes to Nene because of his defense and shot blocking. It's quite a reach to project Frank Williams here -- but he's got the defensive tenacity that reminds some of Karl's favorite player, Gary Payton.
more from Insider...from what I can tell...it looks like the Knicks are trying to move up and get the #3 and perhaps try to tempt us with that pick once they get it...its gonna be fun!!! Draft rumors: Trade talk starts heating up . . . There was lots of vague trade talk running around the NBA Monday. Ironically, most of it did not involve the Rockets or Bulls. League sources told Insider that the Rockets told several teams to give them a few weeks to do their homework on Yao. GM Carroll Dawson told the New York Post that it's "unlikely" he'd trade the No. 1 pick. "We'll listen to everybody but we're real happy with the pick, we're moving into a new building next year and it's a real kick in the pants," he said. Bulls GM Jerry Krause told the Chicago Sun Times he said he didn't take any calls Monday from team executives offering to trade for his No. 2 spot in the draft. Still, there was a lot of talk, starting with the Warriors. "There are a lot of opportunities for us," Robert Rowell, chief operating officer of the Warriors, told the Memphis Commercial Appeal. "We've got players on our roster that we want to build around and there are also players out there who might fit in nicely. Maybe we do something in terms of moving up. Our basketball people have narrowed it down to three players that stand out. I'm glad we're not sitting here talking about the fourth or fifth hole." The Warriors have already narrowed it down? That's good to know. Knicks GM Scott Layden was also planning his next move. Dawson told the Post that he's already received a call from the Knicks. "I've heard from Scott but we haven't spoken about anything hard yet," said Dawson.
I completely agree with the idea that the Rocks will draft Yoa or trade him for an established big man (like Brand or Duncan). The alternative of drafting a 3 with the first pick is not appealing since there is no 3 out there that deserves that high of pick. Trading down for a 3 better mean that a big man comes along with the package or why do it?
