People are freaking out at the electoral votes, but Obama is doing better than Kerry. Much better. http://www.electoral-vote.com/ "The graph below shows the electoral votes again but omits the "barely" states. The electoral votes of a state only count in this graph if the candidate has a margin of 5% or more over his opponent." VS. Kerry
The main thing that jumps out at me is how much less noisy the 2008 data are versus the 2004 data. Not sure what can explain that, other than different polling sample sizes. Otherwise, it's something fundamental about the choice this time: perhaps peoples' impressions of the candidates are not as whimsical this time.
I think a better way to look at things is how they're faring in the battleground states. Because the way the graph is set up right now, you can see a huge swing with a large state that moves 2-3%, from one side to another.
Well, since the graph only shows states where a candidate has a 5% lead. Polls in those states would have to shift a minimum of 10% to see a state swing from one candidate to the other. But a shift of 2-3% could move a large state into the undecided column.
There's some very interesting electoral data to be mined today at Electoral-vote.com and I think it supports my contention that the election will see a pretty close win for Barack in the vote total come election day, but a landslide in the Electoral College. Strong Dem (134) Weak Dem (126) Barely Dem (9) Exactly tied (13) Barely GOP (80) Weak GOP (45) Strong GOP (131) As the above shows, the Democrats have a huge lead in the " Weak, Barely Whatever" columns. Many of those "Barely" states (I keep thinking of hot naked chicks running to the voting booths!) and weak states have McCain with a razor thin margin. Pluses for Obama include being behind in Florida by 2 points, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Colorado by 3%, Montana by 1%, and Virginia tied! Surprises for McCain include Ohio by 4% (Clinton won in '92 and '96, Gore "lost" by only 2%), Missouri by 7% (same results by Clinton and Gore), and several states listed as "strong Republican" were won by Bill Clinton in '92, '96 and appear pretty solid for McCain, were the election held today. Run your pointer over the states and you can quickly see what's going on. I've done this several times (as I'm sure you have), but not for a while. My point? Obama needs to only get a bump of 5% or less in several states to have an overwhelming electoral victory. John McCain has a far more difficult task. I'm hoping Biden will help in several states that are very close and have large "working class" populations and in close states that have a lot of "undecideds." Fence sitters who want to vote against the 8 years of George W. Bush, are uncertain about Obama, and have been waiting to see who he'd pick as a running mate. Another plus? Unlike '04, the conventions are close together, thank god, and you won't have several weeks to lose that "convention bump" because of the rough attacks you know are going to come from the GOP. I'm very optimistic. Impeach Bush.
