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Election Day 2013

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by mc mark, Nov 5, 2013.

  1. Major

    Major Member

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    Agreed - they won't be able to do it in a lot of states because of GOP legislatures, but they should take the offensive in true blue states in the same way the GOP has taken the offensive on Voter ID in true red states and then was able to implement it in purplish states whenever the opportunity arose.
     
  2. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Member

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    I live in a state that's 100% run by Democrats right now yet we have no early voting or no fault vote by mail. God only knows why they dont just pass those two things. I really doubt they would attract any controversy.
     
  3. Major

    Major Member

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  4. Rocketman95

    Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

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  5. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    You seriously can't figure out why he said that? It's a comment on the low turnout Texas elections typically have. Come on, tallanvor. You make very good posts in the GARM, so I know you aren't dense.
     
  6. Major

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    I would imagine so. That's going to be one ugly recount because every single individual vote really will matter.
     
  7. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    on the other hand, it sends the probably false message to the GOP that it can keep sending up unapolgetic candidates like Cucinelli -> other than in an off-year, right in the thick of a bad week for the Administration due to healthcare.gov - I can' t imagine guys like that doing well in swing states in national elections.
     
    #27 SamFisher, Nov 6, 2013
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2013
  8. rimrocker

    rimrocker Member

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    We'll see. On the other hand, you can make the point that Terry McAuliffe just became governor. I'm not sure I could vote for that guy unless the guy i was voting against was just horrible. You know, like Cooch.
     
  9. Major

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    Agreed - I'm just comparing it to the predicted results in the polls. So even if a Dem has a 5 pt lead in a race leading up to election day 2014, there might be some questions whether the turnout models hold.

    That said, it seems that the polls got the Lt Gov race correct, so this might be more of something unique to the Gov race as opposed to a larger turnout issue.
     
  10. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Member

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    I still cant get over the fact that the Democrats nominated an awful candidate and the Republicans countered by nominating an even more terrible candidate.
     
  11. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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    Why are republicans such sore losers?

    Report: Cuccinelli Has No Plans To Call McAuliffe

    Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli had not called Democrat Terry McAuliffe after losing the Virginia gubernatorial race and had no plans to do so as of late Wednesday morning,
     
  12. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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  13. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Member

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    Public polls are largely silly in off year elections like this. Most public pollsters are clueless on how to properly map the electorate. McAulliffe's own internal polling had him at around 52% at the end. In fact, they employed the same data driven strategy that all major Democratic campaigns are doing now. Plus he's running in Virginia where Obama's campaign created an amazing dataset of the entire state. The goal of micro-targeting is 50%+1 voter.

    But as long as public pollsters fail at mapping electorates (which is hard now because the American electorate is actually changing relatively rapidly every year) you'll get weird and inconsistent results like the Virginia election.
     
  14. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
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    Big wins for the Dems with Obama confidant Christie winning in NJ by a wide margin and of course McAuliffe in Virginia.
     
  15. Major

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    If I had to place odds today between Christie and Hillary, I think I'd make Christie a slight favorite for 2016. His personal brand is incredible, and like Obama connected with young people with a hope theme in 2008, Christie's non-partisan theme of "get stuff done" is going to connect with a lot of disaffected moderates in 2016. I'm not convinced he can make it out of a primary, but I think he's the one Republican that can win a general. He'll need the Romney route through the primary - winning the 30% of moderate voters while letting 5 other candidates split the 70% of far-right voters.
     
  16. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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  17. Major

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    Makes sense - will be interesting to see how much OFA makes their data and technology available to House campaigns in 2014. Seems like that would be more efficient than campaigns trying to duplicate it on their own.
     
  18. Major

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    Certainly - I don't think he'd win in New Jersey because it's such a blue state. But I think he could take independents by a wide margin and thus win a majority of the swing states. I know plenty of Democrats who just love Christie - nothing to do with policy and everything to do with leadership style. We'll have been through about 14 years of acrimonious partisanship starting with the Iraq War and Christie will have the same "there are no red states or blue states but the united states" appeal that Obama had in 2008.
     
  19. mc mark

    mc mark Member

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    I see that too.
     
  20. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    Yeah. Christie's policies usually aren't too popular, but he does a good job of avoiding looking like a career politician. He's if Jimmy Carter were from New Jersey.
     

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