If Obama wins Florida, there's no conceivable scenario where McCain could win. If McCain flipped Pennsylvania and won N. Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada but Obama won Florida, then Obama still wins 270-268. I guess if McCain did all of the above and stole a vote from New Hampshire then they'd tie in which case Obama still wins because the Senate will vote him in. Or if he somehow flipped New Mexico he could win. Still, the chances of McCain losing Florida and winning the election is virtually nil.
early voting stats from Josh -- So with all that prologue I want to tell you about a site run by Prof. Michael McDonald of George Mason University that is compiling on-going statistics for early voting in states across the country. You can visit the site here. But here are a few nuggets. If we take the 2004 vote total as the baseline, 31.8% of voters in Georgia have already cast their ballots; in Colorado, 37.9% have already voted; in Florida, 27% have already voted; in Nevada, 39.8% have already voted. Now, remember, most people assume turnout will be higher in 2008 than 2004. So these percentages will probably be at least a bit lower when run against the 2008 totals. But these numbers still make clear that a week in advance of election day, in several of the key states we're all watching, probably a solid third of the voting has already taken place. --Josh Marshall
Counting on VA is also a bad idea. I have a family member involved in Obama's operation there and it's absolutely incredible. I would be very shocked if McCain wins Virginia.
I found this very surprising... from Raising Kaine My family and I have given this election a lot of thought. Our country is in a rough spot, and we're going to need some serious change. There's only one candidate ready to deliver it -- and that's Barack Obama... Every day I talk to someone else who's never voted for a Democrat, but now they're voting for Barack Obama. They realize that Barack understands what we're going through here in North Carolina. And they're ready for change. So I've made up my mind, and I'm ready to get involved. I know that I could never have won a race without my pit crew, and I know Barack can't win this one without us. -- Junior Johnson Who is Junior Johnson, you ask? From Wikipedia: Robert Glen Johnson, Jr. (born June 28, 1931 in Wilkes County, North Carolina), known as Junior Johnson, was a moonshiner in the rural South who became one of the early superstars of NASCAR in the 1950s and 1960s. He won 50 NASCAR races in his career before retiring in 1966. In the 1970s and 1980s he became a NASCAR racing team owner; he sponsored such NASCAR champions as Cale Yarborough and Darrell Waltrip. He now produces a line of fried pork skins and country ham. He is credited with discovering drafting. Wikipedia adds that Johnson is "a legend in the rural South, where his driving expertise and 'outlaw' image was much admired." He also apparently invented the "bootleg turn" and "is credited with discovering drafting."
"James Dean in that Mercury `49 Junior Johnson runnin through the woods of Caroline Even Burt Reynolds in that black Trans Am All gonna meet down at the Cadillac Ranch" - Bruce Springsteen, "Cadillac Ranch," The River CD
I think it's time for the GOP to seriously shift their funding and focus from the presidential race to the Senate races. It now appears that Franken has passed Norm Coleman in Minnesota, and Ted Stevens is done in Alaska. That would give the Dems 60 seats, giving them a filibuster proof majority.
Unless I'm mistaken, that would only give them 59. They'd still need one out of Kentucky, Georgia or Mississippi -- all very tight -- to get to 60. With that said, I think the importance of 60 is a little overstated. Dems have rarely voted in unison (usually due to conservative Dems) the way the GOP usually does. It'd be more symbolic for voters than it would actually mean in reality.
THE HOME STRETCH! Obama: 364, McCain 157 (17 ties) BTW, this is what the 2004 election looked like at this time: Kerry: 260, Bush 254 (24 ties)
From tpm. More tightening on their cumulative poll of polls. • Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 53%-43% Obama lead from yesterday. • Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday. • Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 50%-42% Obama lead yesterday. • Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday. Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.6%-44.4%, a lead of 6.2 points, compared to the 51.2%-44.0% Obama lead from yesterday.
I don't understand why these national polls matter at all, even if you believe them as gospel. All that matters are the state polls, and which states go to which candidate.
Polls in general are pretty bull****. As a collective whole they have some relevance but day to day shifts are so meaningless. Polls are lagging indicators for elections as is, but relying on them as a mirror into day-to-day changes in voter attitudes is a joke. But yeah state polls are more important and frankly more precise. A kid who took statistics in high school could point out so many problems with the way national polls are done.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Crist_extends_voting_hours.html?showall And remember, even if he flips Pennsylvania and wins all the other battleground states, he can't win the electoral vote without Florida.
