Preseason polls are totally worthless offseason fodder. Last year's preseason polls had USC #2, Arkansas, #10, and WVU #11. Auburn was in the top-25 as well I believe.
Agree that preseason rankings are useless in college football. Regardless, one team that could make a big jump by week 3 is Miami. I think Florida is a bit overrated in the current polls, and that likely won't change by week 2 when they face Miami. If Miami handles them they should make a leap accordingly.
Preseason polls are useless as predictors of actual standings at the end of the year. They are, however, important. They give the top schools on the polls the "inside track" on the starting block at the beginning of the year.
This is what I hate about the preseason polls. Some teams are giving the inside track while others have to fight their way up the rankings. And then some people believe, well team x is won last week, can't place them below another team who is clearly better, but weren't place higher in the rankings in August.
I can't wait for UGA-Clemson under the bright lights on the 31st. It should be a barnburner. I think Clemson will have the most high-powered offense in all of college football this season, and their defense will be much improved in Venables' second year at the helm. UGA won't be able to keep up. They have huge holes to fill on a D that has been hit with injuries and a crushing suspension to starting safety Josh Harvey-Clemons.
This is a common thing to say, but it's not really backed up by the evidence over the course of the season. Teams "jump" higher ranked teams all the time when they look more impressive. I think it used to be a bigger problem, but voters seem to have gotten past the idea that you can't be jumped unless you lose. I don't think the polls in week 8 would look any different if there were no preseason polls.
Not that they mean anything...ESPN Power Rankings 1. Alabama Spoiler 2. Ohio State Spoiler 3. Oregon Spoiler Stanford Spoiler 5. Texas A&M Spoiler 6. Georgia Spoiler 6. South Carolina Spoiler 8. Louisville Spoiler 9. Clemson Spoiler 10. Florida Spoiler 11. Florida State Spoiler 12. LSU Spoiler 13. Notre Dame Spoiler 14. Michigan Spoiler 14. Texas Spoiler 16. Oklahoma State Spoiler 17. Oklahoma Spoiler 18. TCU Spoiler 19. UCLA Spoiler 20. Nebraska Spoiler 21. Boise State Spoiler 22. Northwestern Spoiler 23. Oregon State Spoiler 24. USC Spoiler 25. Baylor Spoiler
The analysis they gave for the A&M-Alabama game was hilarious. They said the Tide will roll big if they can limit Manziel. I'm pretty sure Saban thought about that last year. By the time the Ags played Bama last year, Johnny wasn't a secret anymore.
Anyone up for some waaaay-too-early bowl projections? Spoiler My bowl projections do not always coincide with my projected conference standings, as bowl selection committees sometimes base their selections on ticket sales and TV ratings from more high-profile programs. They also try to avoid rematches from the regular season and teams making consecutive trips. Taking those factors into account, here are my projected participants for every bowl game for the 2013 season. (Note: I'll start with the BCS bowls before getting to the non-BCS bowls.) BCS bowls Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio (Big Ten champ vs. Pac-12 champ) Jan. 1, 2014 -- Pasadena, Calif. Projection: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Oregon Ducks The Cornhuskers have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, led by quarterback Taylor Martinez and seven other returning starters. The defense, despite its inexperience, will improve this season and the Huskers will win 10 regular-season games. While Nebraska will lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game, the Rose will keep its preferred Big Ten versus Pac-12 match-up and select the Huskers to make just their third-ever appearance here. Despite breaking in a new head coach in Mark Helfrich, the Ducks will win the Pac-12 North and beat USC in the league championship game on the strength of 15 returning starters, including quarterback Marcus Mariota. It will be their third Rose Bowl appearance since 2009. Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 champ vs. BCS at-large) Jan. 1, 2014 -- Glendale, Ariz. Projection: Texas Longhorns vs. USC Trojans The Longhorns are the most experienced team in the country, with 19 returning starters, and will have one of the most improved defenses with end Jackson Jeffcoat and linebacker Jordan Hicks now healthy. The Longhorns will finish 11-1 and win the Big 12 tiebreaker over Oklahoma State thanks to a win over the Cowboys in Austin, Texas. After being the biggest disappointment in the country last season, the Trojans are flying under the radar as they return 15 starters and are deeper at almost every position. They'll win at least 11 games in the regular season before dropping the Pac-12 title game to Oregon, and the Fiesta committee will then decide to pair them against Texas to set up a rematch of the classic 2005 BCS championship game. Allstate Sugar Bowl (SEC champ vs. BCS at-large) Jan. 2, 2014 -- New Orleans Projection: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish The Bulldogs have one of the best offenses in the country with nine returning starters, led by four-year starting quarterback Aaron Murray. The inexperienced defense will get better as the season progresses, and the Bulldogs will win the SEC East for the third straight season thanks to a key win over South Carolina in Week 2. With Alabama playing in the national championship game, the Sugar will take the SEC's second-best team. The Fighting Irish are a deeper and stronger team than last season's edition despite the loss of quarterback Everett Golson and linebacker Manti Te'o. The schedule is brutal as always, as they play six potentially ranked teams, but they do get key games against Michigan State, Oklahoma and USC at home. The Irish will get to 10 wins and grab an at-large bid. Discover Orange Bowl (ACC champ vs. BCS at-large) Jan. 3, 2014 -- Miami Projection: Florida State Seminoles vs. Louisville Cardinals After last season's 12-win season concluded with an ACC championship and a win over Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl, the Seminoles, led by breakout star quarterback Jameis Winston, will repeat as ACC champs thanks to an upset win at Clemson. Louisville, also off a BCS bowl win last season, returns 16 starters, including quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The Cardinals will win the American Athletic Conference in its inaugural season and finish the regular season 12-0, but, due to a soft schedule, won't receive much sympathy from pollsters or computers and instead will get placed here. BCS National Championship presented by Vizio (BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2) Jan. 6, 2014 -- Pasadena, Calif. Projection: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ohio State Buckeyes The two-time defending champion Crimson Tide are a near-consensus favorite to make their third straight national title game and are trying to become the first school in history to win four titles in five seasons. They return 13 starters, including elite playmakers at nearly every position and are even stronger than last season's championship team. They have two weeks to prepare for each of their two biggest games (Texas A&M and LSU) and will finish the regular season unbeaten for the first time since 2009 after again defeating Georgia in the SEC championship game. The Buckeyes also have 13 returning starters, led by Heisman favorite Braxton Miller at quarterback, and also have a two-time national champion head coach in Urban Meyer. They are currently favored in all 12 of their games, and I'm predicting that, for the second consecutive season, they will run the table in the regular season. But this season, they'll get to play in the Big Ten championship game and defeat Nebraska, setting up the third-ever No. 1 versus No. 2 matchup between Nick Saban and Urban Meyer. Non-BCS bowls Gildan New Mexico Bowl (Mountain West vs. Pac-12) Dec. 21, 2013 -- Albuquerque, N.M. Projection: Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats The Aggies fail to match last season's 11-win total due to a coaching change and step up in competition but still make their third straight bowl for the first time in school history. Arizona, playing a softer schedule and returning 17 starters, makes its second straight bowl under Rich Rodriguez but again finishes fourth in the Pac-12 South. Las Vegas Bowl (Mountain West vs. Pac-12) Dec. 21, 2013 -- Las Vegas Projection: Fresno State Bulldogs vs. UCLA Bruins The Bulldogs return 15 starters this year, including quarterback Derek Carr, and get a key game against Boise State at home in the regular season. A win there allows them to host the inaugural Mountain West championship game, and they again beat the Broncos. UCLA, despite being more talented than last season, fails to top 2012's nine-win total thanks to a tough schedule. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (MAC vs. Mountain West) Dec. 21, 2013 -- Boise, Idaho Projection: Ohio Bobcats vs. San Jose State Spartans Ohio finishes second in the MAC East and qualifies for its school-record fifth consecutive bowl, making its second appearance here in three years. The Spartans will fail to match last season's success but will still make back-to-back bowls for the first time since 1986-87. R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (C-USA vs. Sun Belt) Dec. 21, 2013 -- New Orleans Projection: Tulane Green Wave vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns With 16 returning starters and an advantageous schedule, the Green Wave get to six wins for the first time since 2002. The Ragin' Cajuns win the Sun Belt with coach Mark Hudspeth's best team, yet make their third straight appearance here. The past two New Orleans Bowls have set attendance records, and look for this matchup of in-state teams to do the same. Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl (American Athletic vs. C-USA) Dec. 23, 2013 -- St. Petersburg, Fla. Projection: Air Force Falcons vs. East Carolina Pirates The American Athletic Conference fails to fill all its bowl slots, and the Falcons are an attractive at-large option, making their seventh consecutive bowl under coach Troy Calhoun. East Carolina, with 18 returning starters, finishes second in the C-USA East and qualifies for its seventh bowl in the past eight years. Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (C-USA vs. Mountain West) Dec. 24, 2013 -- Honolulu Projection: Rice Owls vs. San Diego State Aztecs With 19 returning starters, the Owls top last season's seven-win total and get to their second straight bowl game for the first time since 1960-61, while finishing second in the C-USA West. The Aztecs qualify for a fourth straight bowl but fail to match last season's nine wins thanks to a tough schedule. Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Big Ten vs. MAC) Dec. 26, 2013 -- Detroit Projection: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Bowling Green Falcons With 16 returning starters, the Golden Gophers are even stronger than last season's team and get to six wins despite losing six of their last eight games. The Falcons win nine games for the first time since 2004 but fall to Northern Illinois in the MAC championship game. S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (Army vs. Mountain West) Dec. 26, 2013 -- San Diego Projection: Missouri Tigers vs. Boise State Broncos Army fails to qualify for a bowl, and Missouri is an attractive at-large option after getting to six wins in the SEC, qualifying for its eighth bowl in nine years after missing out last season. Following three straight Las Vegas Bowl appearances, the Broncos make their first appearance here since 2008, having dropped a couple of tough road games. Military Bowl (ACC vs. C-USA) Dec. 27, 2013 -- Annapolis, Md. Projection: Maryland Terrapins vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles The Terrapins figure to have much better luck at the quarterback spot with regards to injuries and, as a result, improve their win total by at least two victories for the second consecutive year. After having their streak of 18 consecutive winning seasons end last year in a dismal 0-12 campaign, the Golden Eagles shock many and get back to a bowl with six wins. Texas Bowl (Big Ten vs. Big 12) Dec. 27, 2013 -- Houston Projection: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Kansas State Wildcats With 19 returning starters and an advantageous schedule, the Hoosiers qualify for just their second bowl in the past 19 years. After back-to-back double-digit win seasons, the Wildcats take a step back with just 10 returning starters but still qualify for their fourth consecutive bowl under the always-underrated Bill Snyder. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (BYU vs. Pac-12) Dec. 27, 2013 -- San Francisco Projection: Brigham Young Cougars vs. Washington Huskies The Cougars have an agreement to be placed here if they reach bowl eligibility, and they easily do despite a killer schedule that could see them face 10 potential bowl teams. The Huskies also face a tough schedule but finally break through and top seven wins, setting up a matchup between Washington coach Steve Sarkisian and his alma mater. New Era Pinstripe Bowl (American Athletic vs. Big 12) Dec. 28, 2013 -- New York Projection: Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders The Scarlet Knights overcome a school-record seven players being selected in the NFL draft and land their eighth bowl bid in the past nine years while staying close to home. The Red Raiders fail to live up to high expectations under first-year coach Kliff Kingsbury but still reach their 13th bowl game in 14 years. Belk Bowl (ACC vs. American Athletic) Dec. 28, 2013 -- Charlotte, N.C. Projection: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Cincinnati Bearcats After a one-year bowl ban, the Tar Heels are now eligible and match last season's eight wins thanks to the return of quarterback Bryn Renner and a manageable schedule. The Bearcats start off the season at least 8-1 but fall just short of the American Athletic championship and play here for the second year in a row against a team playing close to home. Russell Athletic Bowl (ACC vs. American Athletic) Dec. 28, 2013 -- Orlando, Fla. Projection: Clemson Tigers vs. UCF Knights Despite a 10-2 record, the Tigers get passed over for the last two at-large BCS spots in favor of Notre Dame and USC, and Virginia Tech gets the nod over them in the Chick-fil-A Bowl to avoid a rematch against South Carolina. The Knights have a solid first season in the AAC by winning nine games and get to play in their home city. Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (Big Ten vs. Big 12) Dec. 28, 2013 -- Tempe, Ariz. Projection: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears The Wildcats fail to match last season's 10-win total due to a much tougher conference schedule but still qualify for their sixth straight bowl under coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Bears open the season at least 6-1 but falter down the stretch with three more losses. However, they qualify for their fourth straight bowl for the first time in school history. Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (Mountain West vs. Navy) Dec. 30, 2013 -- Fort Worth, Texas Projection: Colorado State Rams vs. Navy Midshipmen The Rams return 17 starters and will get improved quarterback and running back play this season. On defense, they have a top-notch linebacker corps. They get to their first bowl since 2008 with seven wins. Navy has an agreement to be placed here with bowl eligibility and barely does so, getting to six wins for its 10th bowl in 11 years. Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (ACC vs. SEC) Dec. 30, 2013 -- Nashville, Tenn. Projection: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Tennessee Volunteers Last season, the Yellow Jackets ended a streak of seven straight bowl losses. This season, with coach Paul Johnson's best team since 2009, they qualify for their 17th straight bowl (the fourth-longest streak in the country). Tennessee, after back-to-back losing seasons, wins its final three games to qualify for a bowl under new coach Butch Jones. Valero Alamo Bowl (Big 12 vs. Pac-12) Dec. 30, 2013 -- San Antonio Projection: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Stanford Cardinal The inexperienced Sooners succumb to a tough schedule that sees them play five ranked teams away from home, but they still qualify for their 15th consecutive bowl under Bob Stoops. After a 7-0 start, the Cardinal lose two of their final five games and get passed over for a BCS at-large spot despite achieving double-digit wins for the fourth straight season. Holiday Bowl (Big 12 vs. Pac-12) Dec. 30, 2013 -- San Diego Projection: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Arizona State Sun Devils A much more veteran Horned Frogs team this season wins eight games despite a tough schedule and qualifies for its ninth consecutive bowl under coach Gary Patterson. The Sun Devils win nine games for the first time since 2007 but just miss out on the Pac-12 South title thanks to an early-season loss to USC. AdvoCare V100 Bowl (ACC vs. SEC) Dec. 31, 2013 -- Shreveport, La. Projection: North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Auburn Tigers The Wolfpack return only 10 starters and have a new coach in Dave Doeren but still qualify for their fourth straight bowl thanks to a soft first-half schedule. Auburn takes advantage of a weak nonconference schedule by going 4-0 as the Tigers double their win total from last season in coach Gus Malzahn's first year. Hyundai Sun Bowl (ACC vs. Pac-12) Dec. 31, 2013 -- El Paso, Texas Projection: Miami Hurricanes vs. Oregon State Beavers With 18 returning starters, the Hurricanes win nine games for only the second time since 2005 but finish second in the ACC Coastal Division to Virginia Tech. The Beavers start off 7-0 but lose three of their final five games. However, they still achieve eight or more wins for the seventh time since 2003. AutoZone Liberty Bowl (C-USA vs. SEC) Dec. 31, 2013 -- Memphis, Tenn. Projection: Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Arkansas Razorbacks The Thundering Herd are my No. 1 most improved team in the country and go from five to 10 wins after upsetting Tulsa in the C-USA championship game. Arkansas wins all four of its nonconference games and then beats Auburn and Mississippi State at home in SEC play while getting to at least six wins under new coach Bret Bielema. Chick-fil-A Bowl (ACC vs. SEC) Dec. 31, 2013 -- Atlanta Projection: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. South Carolina Gamecocks After being a huge disappointment last season, the Hokies get back to their winning ways with 15 returning starters and win the ACC Coastal for the fifth time in seven years. The Gamecocks win 10 regular-season games for the third consecutive year but miss out on the SEC championship game again thanks to an early-season loss to Georgia. TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC) Jan. 1, 2014 -- Jacksonville, Fla. Projection: Michigan Wolverines vs. Ole Miss Rebels After starting off the season at least 6-1, the Wolverines drop two of their final five games and just miss out on appearing in the Big Ten championship game. Ole Miss, with 19 returning starters, overcomes a brutal first seven games by winning five straight to close out the season and makes its second straight bowl under coach Hugh Freeze. Heart of Dallas Bowl (Big Ten vs. C-USA) Jan. 1, 2014 -- Dallas Projection: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz usually surprises when expectations are low, and after a 4-8 season in 2012, the Hawkeyes win six games for the 12th time in 13 years. Tulsa gets upset in the C-USA championship game but does not mind the exposure of playing in a New Year's Day bowl after winning at least eight games for the eighth time in the past nine years. Capital One Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC) Jan. 1, 2014 -- Orlando, Fla. Projection: Wisconsin Badgers vs. LSU Tigers The Badgers, despite having a new coach, take advantage of avoiding Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State in conference play and top last season's eight-win total. Despite a brutal schedule, the Tigers win at least 10 games for the seventh time under Les Miles and make their first appearance here since 2009. Outback Bowl (Big Ten vs. SEC) Jan. 1, 2014 -- Tampa, Fla. Projection: Michigan State Spartans vs. Florida Gators After a disappointing 2012, the Spartans have the Big Ten's best defense and get improved quarterback play en route to at least a nine-win season. The Gators, despite having top-10 talent, play the nation's toughest schedule this season and lose at least three games for the third time in the past four years. AT&T Cotton Bowl (Big 12 vs. SEC) Jan. 3, 2014 -- Arlington, Texas Projection: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas A&M Aggies All nine sets of my power ratings call for the Cowboys to win at least 11 games this season. However, they get passed over for a BCS at-large spot and settle for their first Cotton Bowl appearance since 2009. As long as Johnny Manziel is eligible, look for the Aggies to win 10 regular-season games again, and they play here for the second year in a row. BBVA Compass Bowl (American vs. SEC) Jan. 4, 2014 -- Birmingham, Ala. Projection: Houston Cougars vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Thanks to an explosive offense that returns eight starters, the Cougars start off 5-1 and make their sixth bowl appearance in eight years. Expectations are high for the Commodores, and while they won't match last season's nine-win total, look for them to make their third straight bowl appearance for the first time in school history. GoDaddy.com Bowl (MAC vs. Sun Belt) Jan. 5, 2014 -- Mobile, Ala. Projection: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks The Huskies, thanks to the return of quarterback Jordan Lynch, win their third straight MAC championship and reach double-digit wins for the fourth straight season. ULM made its first bowl in school history last season and returns 17 starters. The Warhawks finish tied for second in the Sun Belt and make it back-to-back bowl appearances. Link
TAMU's oline was amazing last year but they still return some great players on that side of the ball including another top 10 pick tackle.
AP Top 25 1. Alabama(58) 2. Ohio State(1) 3. Oregon 4. Stanford 5. Georgia(1) 6. South Carolina 7. Texas A&M 8. Clemson 9. Louisville 10. Florida 11. Florida State 12. LSU 13. Oklahoma State 14. Notre Dame 15. Texas 16. Oklahoma 17. Michigan 18. Nebraska 19. Boise State 20. TCU 21. UCLA 22. Northwestern 23. Wisconsin 24. USC 25. Oregon State
Ohio State's schedule is crap with 3 ranked teams, none higher than #17 - they have a nice easy path to getting blown out in a national title game again.
Yep, ESPN will be slurping off Urban and pumping Braxton as the Heisman frontrunner after each of their "hard-fought 17-13 victories" over the likes of Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern, etc. Also, UGA receiving a single vote for #1 is beyond laughable. Their defense is very suspect. I think they'll fall to both Clemson and SCar in the first 2 weeks.
