Clipperland dominos

I don't think they can get much better from the 1-3 through trade or fagency. If Brand isn't satisfied with the cast around him then he should just take the one year tender and run.

 

Clippers can't get anybody because they won't get anybody. Their biggest trade acquisition over the past few years was a salary dump of talent by the Magic in 2000: Dooling, Maggette, and Derek Strong. Other than that? Draft picks, draft picks, and more draft picks. Cherokee Parks and Vinnie Del Negro (immediately released) don't count.

The question isn't one over "who can they get," but instead, it's one of "what will they do?" And my belief is that they match Maggette, Odom and Brand take 1yr deals, Miller leaves, and they do nothing else.

 

would you risk 6yrs max money on injury just to avoid the Clippers from matching.

Surely, San Antonio has to offer him the max, as long as Duncan wants him. I can't see a man turning down some max'd out ~$80m guaranteed salary vs a $5m tender offer.

 

hp - if San Antonio got Brand, it'd mean Duncan would be the de facto center, something he hasn't shown a want to necessarily do over time. It's one of the reasons he turned down the Magic in summer 2000, along with David Robinson's presence in San Antonio.

I'm not sure it's changed. Yes, Duncan effectively is the center, playing on the low block all of the time. But, Brand has a similar style of game, and it may cause some conflict. I think that's why you've heard the Spurs in tandem with true centers as opposed to power forwards - a player like Brad Miller or Rasho Nesterovic can step out and shoot at 15ft, guard the opposing team's center from time to time, as well as allow Duncan the freedom to do what he wants.

Don't get me wrong, I think it'd be the best move for the Spurs to sign Brand, as he's obviously the best (and most underrated) talent out there. I'm just not sure if that's the type of player they are looking to pair alongside Duncan, though.

 

mfclark

first, Duncan said he wants a big man.

second, i don't believe that makes Duncan the center at all. Against Shaq, well, yes, but against no one else. I mean, if they signed Kidd...who are they kidding...Duncan is in the same position. What? Is Malik Rose the center.

Well, actually Rose has played some center...and Brand with that wingspan would guard every center except the best....if even not then.

Here's what would happen, Duncan would always be guarded by a PF. The centers just can't hang. Duncan would then have his choice of when he would guard a center.

I don't see what the big deal is. Saying landing Brand would force Duncan to play center is like saying landing Malone would force Nowitzki to play center. No...Nowitzki will never guard Shaq...he'll exploit something else.

 

Hell no I wouldn't turn down that $$$. That's why I don't think Brand has any leverage to demand a trade and why I think he'll stick with the clipps. But if he's serious about being concerned about the "team's direction", he'll take the tender and all bets are off.

San Antonio should offer him a max contract, but I think the Clipps would just match it anyway. They're pretty damn close a max offer as it stands now.

 

*they* knowing the clips will match....is not what CK and I are saying. SA has to offer the max, regardless of the threat that Clips will match....of course, it doesn't mean Brand will sign the offer sheet, for fear of Clips matching...if that indeed is his fear.

SA cannot just dismiss Brand to "chase" Brad Miller out of paranoia. They have to extend the offer and let Brand decide.

Brad Miller before allowing both Brand and the Clips to reject.

pffft

you are one step ahead of yourself, pasox2.

 

The one problem with offering money to a restricted FA is that it "ties you up" to that player until the team decides if they will counter it or not.

Example situation. Let's say the Spurs want to either get Brand (restricted FA) or Brad Miller (unrestricted FA). If the Spurs sign Brand to an offer sheet the Clippers have 15 days to decide what they want to do. Chances are they will take their sweet time. But in the interim the Spurs CAN'T sign anyone else since they have an offer sheet on the table. And during those 15 days let's say Brad Miller is tired of "sitting around" and decides to go back with the Pacers. THEN let's say the Clippers decide to match the Spurs offer. Let's also say some team decides to sign Kandi and Minnesota during that time decides to reup with Rasho.

What do you have? The Clippers have Brand back and the Pacers have Miller, Kandi is signed somewhere else, Rasho has resigned etc. Perhaps the Spurs COULD have had Miller, Kandi, Rasho but perhaps Miller, Kandi, Rasho did not want to wait around to see what happens with Brand and SA.

What I am getting at is that messing around with restricted FAs takes your team OFF the market for 15 days (at most) while OTHER TEAMs gobble up other players. And if you don't score with your offer sheet then when the music stops there won't be a chair left to sit in.

I think it is only wise to offer money to a restricted FA if either
1) That is the ONLY player you are looking at. If you get him, great. If not then oh well.
2) You honestly feet a team won't match the offer (i.e Andre Miller likely gone to Denver for 9 million a season, no way Clippers match that offer).

I don't see the Spurs in that situation. They NEED to get someone in there. And The Clippers are more likely to match any offer for Brand than they are any of their other restricted FAs.

 

Basically SA is left with 3 options: Brad Miller, Nesterovic, or Olowokandi. I don't see any of these guys as being huge difference makers, but would allow Duncan to remain at the 4 spot. It wouldn't hurt to give Miller a 5 year, $35 million contract, or something like that.

Elton Brand will probably sign a 1-yr. deal with the Clips, then test the waters next year as an unrestricted FA. Ditto Lamar Odom.

 

imo, you are thinking too much.

there's nothing in the rule books that says the full 15 days has to expire.

imo, worrying about losing out on Miller is no reason to not extend the full max to Brand. Besides, SA can still pay Miller more money than any other team, right? so, it is in Miller's best interest to wait out the Clipper's decision to match Brand, thus upping his value even more should SA still end up with nothing.

now maybe Miller's agent will think he has the leverage to say, "if you sign an offer sheet with Brand, you can forget about Brad," but I don't see them having that type of leverage.

note that San Antonio can have major involvement in any SnTs all the way through the trade deadline in February. If they don't use their cap now, they can grease any trade in the league, and try to snatch a PF/C out of those as a 3rd wheel.

bottomline, Miller is no consolation prize to Brand, since there are a couple options to Miller...but there are no other Brand quality players out there.

 

hp -

Yes, Duncan wants a big man. All indications, though, are that it's going to be a center. It's been well-publicized before that Duncan prefers not to be known as a center.

Even if they had signed Kidd, I believe they would've had enough cap room to add another player via trade or free agency. They had the most cap room available, behind the Nuggets (and now, the Jazz).

Rose has played some center, yes, and Brand can play some center...but neither have the height for it. Neither are taller than 6'8", 6'9" at best and despite the wingspan, I don't believe either have the size to do it continually. Rose is better served as a backup, and in that case I believe it can work, as backup centers as a whole are pathetic.

Centers only can't hang with Duncan in terms of athleticism. If he's down by the basket, I'd imagine centers would still guard him. My point is that signing a true center instead of a power forward maintains the status quo, allowing Duncan to pick and choose his spots. Having the bigger player gives the Spurs more flexibility on both the offensive and defensive end, even if said center isn't as good as Brand.

I don't think they'd struggle with Brand and Duncan, but I feel they are more adverse to changing the current system (which has won two titles in five years) than anything.

 

The Spurs should probably add a center (Rasho, Kandi), re-sign Speedy to a small but decent contract, and keep their money for when Manu (next year) and Parker (in a year or two) are due for extensions.

Granted, it isn't a home run. They could add Rasho or B. Miller and, say, Maggette. They really only need to bolster the supporting cast.

 

There's nothing that would give the Clippers any incentive to make a decision before then. Golden State sure waited the full 15 days on Marc Jackson, no?

SA can't pay any more money for Miller than Indiana. If Indiana were to put a good offer on the table for him (which they should), I doubt Miller would wait around 2 weeks to see if the Spurs may or may not make an offer in the same ball park.

Same reason Jermaine chose to stop screwing around with Dallas and San Antonio- players would rather make the decision than wait around to see if a team will turn it's attention to them after missing out on Kidd.

 

teams always wait for the 15 days to wind down. It definitely hurts a team like San Antonio if they have to wait 15 days to do something but they could always hang on to their money 1 more year when Elton Brand is an unrestricted free agent. With the people who are left out there i don't see anyone that could actually help the spurs beat the lakers. I think Gary Payton definitely was the best signing of the two.

 

NIKE, it is the other way around, imo. There is no incentive to wait on signing the offer sheet if you want to. You are not allowed to discuss it or look for current or future trades or anything. It is sign or not. Remember, GS pissed off Jackson and he never played for them. Has any other team waited the full 15 days before?

That aside: What you are saying is SA will not offer Brand the max because they are worried it would piss off Miller?????

So, if Brand's agent came to you and said he wanted an offer sheet, you wouln't sign it? Is that what you are saying?

btw: why are you comparing Miller to two max players? O'Neal and Brand. it is not the same. What I meant by SA can pay more for Miller than anyone is that Miller is not a max player so he has a ceiling for Indiana (you'd assume) that other teams could exceed (just like Kandi and the Clippers). SA could simply outbid Indiana, if they become as desparate as you say.

Miller will wait. And he is not worth worrying over a mere 15 days, assuming it even goes 15 days. Guys like Brand are rare. If you can get him to sign an offer sheet, you do it.

 

There is not really much evidence to say one way or another. What seems to usually happen is the team doesn't match, thus making it a successful offer sheet.

Does anyone know how many offer sheets have been matched, and what was the wait.

anyhow, I don't consider it important. It would be if there was another major FA out there, but Brand is the only one, now. You have to sign him and take that chance, <b>if you can get him to sign.</b> 15 day wait be damned.

 

NIKE is right.

A team will make you wait 15 days, GS told us that they were going to make us wait 15 days for screwing w/ them (making them overpay for their player). What did they do?

The Clippers could go either way (wait or jump on Brand), but either way they're going to keep Brand. SA knows this, so they're not waisting their time and watching other players commit to other teams. Common sense. 15 days is way to long to let your second best or third best get nervous. Getting somebody to move is magic. You have to do the sweet talking. SA is doing that sweet talking now.

Why do you want SA to waste their time? A team telling you "we'll match any offer" is incredibly clear. It's tantamount to the very player telling you to bug off.

 

heyp- I'm not saying the Spurs should wait on signing Brand to an offer sheet to first pursue Miller.

The Spurs very well could miss out on Miller because they sign Brand to an offer sheet. Depending on the accuracy of the Heat/Arenas and Denver/Maggette rumors, one of those teams could make Miller a nice offer. As I said, if Indy makes a suitable offer, Miller has no reason to wait around.

What does it matter that Jackson sucked (other than we're pretty lucky to not have his albatross contract)? Ricky Davis had a breakout performance after Cleveland matched Minn's offer sheet.

This is really a non issue, because it seems the Spurs' target seems to be Rasho.

Waiting the full 15 days would be consistent with the Clippers. They have no reason to do so before then, so they won't. Look how long they went in limbo without a coach- Sterling will only match (or not match) when he has to.