Another gem surfaces in Houston Rob Neyer http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/neyer_rob/42798.html I have seen the future of Houston Astros pitching, and it throws hard. Very hard. Before I get into specifics, though, riddle me this ... How many organizations can match Houston's young hurlers when it comes to pure strikeout power? Billy Wagner ... well, Billy Wagner's not "young" any longer, turns 30 next month. But four years ago, when he was 25, Wagner struck out 106 hitters in 66 innings. Scott Elarton is now 25 years old, and struggling. But before he joined the Astros in 1998, Elarton struck out 596 hitters in 684 minor-league innings; in 1997 and '98, his last two minor-league seasons, Elarton struck out 291 hitters in 279 innings. Wade Miller is 24, and he's struck out 168 hitters in 200 innings since arriving in the major leagues for good last July. (Those numbers just might be even better if Miller hadn't thrown approximately 125 pitches in successive April starts). Roy Oswalt is 23, and he entered the 2001 season with 497 strikeouts in 493 minor-league innings. This year, Oswalt struck out 32 hitters in 31 innings for Triple-A New Orleans, which earned him a summons from the big club. Since putting on the Astros uniform, Oswalt has struck out 26 hitters in 31 innings, posted a 3.19 ERA and a 4-1 record. Next in the pipeline? An impressive young man named Tim Redding. Redding was drafted by the Astros in 1997. And like Oswalt, Redding was not a high pick; the Astros took Redding in the 20th round, a year after drafting Oswalt in the 23rd round. Redding's listed at six feet even and 180 pounds, Oswalt at six feet and 170. And of course, both are strikeout artists. A year ago, Redding struck out 192 hitters in 181 minor-league innings, most of them coming in the tough Class A Florida State League. He opened this season with Double-A Round Rock, and in a dozen starts there he went 10-2 with a 2.18 ERA and K'd 113 hitters in 91 innings. And last night, I was lucky enough to see Redding in Tacoma, where he made his first Triple-A start for the New Orleans Zephyrs. The last time I was at Cheney Stadium, April of 2000, I saw Ryan Anderson make his Triple-A debut for the Rainiers. That night, Anderson struck out 10 Salt Lake Buzzers in six innings. Watching Anderson from a ringside seat, I felt like I was witness to The Next Big Thing. Or perhaps the next Big Unit, as Anderson scrapes the ceiling at nearly seven feet tall. Of course, he's become neither of those yet. After a solid Triple-A season, Anderson ran into the dreaded arm problems, and won't pitch at all this year after reconstructive surgery this spring. But every season brings another great pitching prospect, and Tim Redding is certainly a great pitching prospect. It's one thing to see numbers on a page or a computer screen -- and make no mistake, Redding's numbers are mighty impressive -- but it's something else to actually see the guy pitch. Both experiences are thrilling alone, but somehow incomplete without the other, just as I highly recommend reading Ian Frazier's masterpiece, "Great Plains," and visiting the Great Plains yourself. So how did Redding look? He's more polished than Anderson was a year ago, not quite as polished as Oswalt is right now, and one hell of a prospect. In fact, after watching him the word "prospect" may not do Redding justice. He could, right this very minute, do quite well in a major-league bullpen. In fact, given the Astros' tendency to start their prospective starters in the bullpen, there's really little reason to keep Redding in the minors much longer. Maybe it's time to just give up on Jose Lima, he of the sparkly 6.79 ERA over his last 249 innings. Last night, though, Redding was essentially a two-pitch pitcher. They're two really good pitches -- a 90-plus fastball that occasionally hits 94 or 95 on the JUGS gun, and a sharp slider -- but most starters need a third pitch to keep the hitters honest. Redding does have a changeup, and last night he threw it exactly once ... in his pregame warm-up routine. Redding's "changeup" of choice was instead his curveball, but he didn't really know where that was going most of the time. It might have just been the adjustment to a new team and a new level, but Redding simply didn't have good command of his pitches. And yet, he still managed to toss seven innings of shutout baseball, seven innings that included eight strikeouts and only six baserunners, against the team with the best record in the Pacific Coast League. Which leads one to wonder, what might Redding do with command of one (or more) of his slow offerings? If the Astros are careful, and his body cooperates, we should find out later this summer, or perhaps next spring. So where do the Astros get all these guys? Different places. But I believe that the Astros give themselves an advantage because they're not afraid of short right-handers. Let me explain ... for a long time, there has been a prejudice against "short" right-handed pitchers. Why not left-handed pitchers? You got me, but I suppose it's because teams are always so desperate for lefties that they'll take whatever they can get. But righties, no. This prejudice is so strong that many scouts simply won't turn in a report on a right-handed pitchers shorter than six feet. If he's 5-10 or 5-11, the scout will simply lie, and write down "6-0" on the form. Of course, this sort of subterfuge can only go so far. When Astros executives see those "6-0"s on the form, they must know six feet doesn't always mean six feet. And they still draft these supposed six-footers. Yes, they wait a while, but that's presumably because they know they can. Redding and Oswalt, who both might wind up as rotation anchors someday, were steals as 20th- and 23rd-round picks. Wade Miller's not a little guy -- he's listed at 6-2, which might or might not be inflated by an inch or two, as is the fashion -- but he too was a 20th-round pick (in 1996). Meanwhile, Elarton (who's 6-8) and Billy Wagner (who, with a bushy hairstyle, stands 5-11 in his baseball spikes) were both first-round picks. Now, if only the Astros could find some great pitchers in Rounds 2 through 19 ... ----------------------------------------
I see great things pretty soon from Roy! ------------------ Rarely is the question asked: Guns kill squirrels than REDRUM to fools across the nation?
Man do I feel great about our future pitching rotation. Oswalt -- ESPN guaranteed he would win a Cy Young within 5 years. He's good enough to do it Miller -- Has struggled a bit lately, but still an awesome player who is still very young. Redding -- This guy is the real deal Reynolds -- He's like a rock (or a chevy truck), struggled after surgery but has emerged as his old, dominant self. Elarton -- What happened to this guy? He's pulled a Jose Lima . . . But I think Elarton will snap out of it. He's still young and inconsistent. McKnight -- Where do you put him? He's awesome too! And the astros have lots of other talent. ------------------ CC.net's most courteous driver Oh yeah, and I'm looking for a job right now, so hire me please
Redding looks good, is closer to being ready, but I like Carlos Hernadez more. Also check out these guys: Brad Lidge - could be in pen if wasn't injured Mike Nannini - Look for promo to AA Juan Campos - Another from the academy Robert Stiehl - 1st round pick fireballer ------------------ "Chucky who? I thought we were talking about basketball?" Charles Barkley
Did the Astro's draft any top pitching prospects in the latest draft? All I heard about were the main guys who were position players. ------------------ Feeling claustrophobic, like the walls are closing in. Blood stains on my hands, and I don't know where I've been. I'm in trouble for the things I haven't got to yet. I'm chomping at the bit, and my palms are getting wet. Sweating Bullets Runnin', Ravin', Endin', Out.
I told y'all to keep an eye out for Redding, he is a legit star, he looked like a man-child in AA. But don't worry, there are still a ton of pitching prospects coming down the pipe - Hell, the Round Rock Express probably field a better staff than the Rangers do. ------------------ "I always thought it was something that went around my house" - World B. Free on Defence
umm are u guys forgetting wilfredo rodriguez...... if he would just get healthy he cold be a fireball throwing lefty.... he started out 16 yrs old in the sytems with a fast ball that topped out at 80mph. now he tops out at 98.... if he just gets healthy, watch out ------------------ "The early bird may get the worm, but so does the bird that finished off the tequila bottle the night before"
Remember that along with his 17 wins last year Elarton's ERA was 4.81. It helped that the Astros scored an average of over 7 runs per game when he pitched. This year his ERA is up about 1.5 and the Astros production is down around 1.5 during his starts. Elarton's record last year could easily have been 10-14 if he didn't have the best run support in the league. I like Elarton, but it appears he hasn't fully gotten back to the form he had prior to his injury. ------------------
Elarton's lost about 5-7 mph off his fastball and can't throw his breaking stuff for strikes. That makes for a bad combination when he's down in the count. He can't get hitters out throwing an 88 mph fastball. ------------------ "Oh No..." -Bill Walton in 97 just before Stockton's buzzer beater
Hopefully they'll all pan out, and we can make a run and grab a World Series title before Drayton McLane lets them all leave as free agents. Anyone else notice how well the Stros' minor-league teams are doing? Aren't they just about all in first place? New Orleans is, I think; I know Round Rock won the first-half title in the Texas League; and Michigan was in first last I saw.
I heard that Wilfredo was demoted to the bullpen. He sounds awesome, but if the rumors about difficulty maturing and dealing with a starters role are true, he may not make it . . . ------------------ CC.net's most courteous driver Oh yeah, and I'm looking for a job right now, so hire me please
Greg Miller, from the Everett trade, is supposed to be a stud also. They say that Oswalt had an "above average" fastball, but I think he hit 95 quite a few times last nite. His line may not have looked great last nite 6 1/3 IP, 3 R, 8K's. If Vizcaino had fielded that grounder, he may have pitched 8 innings while allowing only one run. ------------------ "norm, would you like to buy an indian scalp ? This deal isn't gonna make or break me Norm, so don't jerk me around." Harry Carey "Norm, if I had a mohawk scalp, I wouldn't be sitting here talking to you."
i too am pumped about the 'stros future rotation! my prayer is that they do what cleveland did with their position players who came up through their farm system back in the early 90's, and start locking these guys up for a while as they begin to prove themselves on the major league level. the luxury the 'stros have is that they don't need all of these guys to be aces! we have so much good young pitching it's sick! i just don't want to see them in yankee pinstripes because we can't afford to sign them when the time comes. lock them up young! Anyone seen Jason Lane play in Round Rock?? He's the outfielder who is tearing the Texas League up! I am concerned with Scott Elarton. It has been roughly forever since this guy has had a good start. As someone mentioned, he's definitely lost a good deal of velocity...i wonder if there's something physically wrong with him....like an injury we're not hearing about (in the spirit of shane reynolds a couple of years back!). do you think we'll end up trading shane this year??? I think if we're out of it...if we fall further than about 12-13 games back in mid-July or August, trading him wouldn't be such a bad idea. The cost of good starting pitching is high...the Mariners want him, so it would be interesting to see what they offer. Without the kind of young talent our organization has, you probably don't do it. But with that luxury, maybe you do. ------------------
Everyone's overlooking one thing in that article - the just criticism that Miller was forced to throw back-to-back 125 pitch games, and hasn't been the same ever since. If you read Neyer's articles regularly, you know that the man's a crusader about this. By gathering statistical samples of young pitcher's counts, I think he (and others as well) have pretty much proven that it's a *very, very, very* bad idea to let young pitchers throw a lot of pitches. I know that the Astros bullpen sucks (again). But letting Miller pitch another inning or two wasn't worth the gamble. I just hope he's not permanently affected by it. I know Dierker's under pressure to win... but that's no excuse for jeopardizing Miller's career. If Oswalt, McKnight, and Redding start throwing 125 pitch games as well, I'm going to be furious. ------------------ Lacking inspiration at the moment...
Oswalt another solid start last night. Wade Miller back on track tonite. If these young arms along with Shane Reynolds can get us back into the heart of the race, what do you do next? Do you trade some of your prospects for an ace? What do you do with Daryle Ward? If you're seriously trying to contend, you have to keep Alou and take your chances this offseason. If the Mets fall off the face of the earth, what would it take to bring Al Leiter's $9million paycheck and big game experience to Houston? The Mets are weak in the outfield...do you give them Ward and Lidge? Is that enough? How does a rotation of quality ace (Leiter), Reynolds, Oswalt, and Miller stack up against the rest of the league? Many questions if you're Gerry Hunsicker. ------------------ how could you not want c-webb?
If I am the Astros, I don't trade Ward. Right now, he is a good backup to 2 of the 3 outfield positions, and a very good backup to one Jeff Bagwell. If he continues to get no play by the end of the season, I say trade him for a decent player at whatever position has the most need (read: shortstop). I have my doubts that Adam Everett can ever be a major leauger. But I don't like the idea of trading away Ward and prospects for an aging "ace" in Leiter. He is good, but I don't think the 'Stros have what it takes to do anything this season, even if we catch the Cubs. Instead, I would make sure to get some of the young guys as much time as possible, because they will be essential in our campaign to the top of the National league for next season. Then, we will be this season's Mariners, not nearly as dominant, but with a lot of young, new players that really surprise everyone... mostly pitchers. I like our current core of Reynolds (always reliable, if healthy), Miller, and Oswalt. In 2 years, when Redding has come up, and possibly a resurgence of Elarton (although I am not counting on that), we will have the best rotation in the game. That is what I look forward to. ------------------ Feeling claustrophobic, like the walls are closing in. Blood stains on my hands, and I don't know where I've been. I'm in trouble for the things I haven't got to yet. I'm chomping at the bit, and my palms are getting wet. Sweating Bullets Runnin', Ravin', Endin', Out.
Wilfredo Rodriguez was a cannon attached to his shoulder, but he can't control it. He has control problems, not terrible control, but he's not really going to be a star pitcher unless he can start putting his fastball where he wants it to go. But he's young, he will learn. ------------------ "I always thought it was something that went around my house" - World B. Free on Defence
I've followed the Astros their entire history, and they have just about worn me down. When we have pitching, we don't have hitting. When we have hitting, our pitching sucks. There have been a few bright moments along the way, but we've never had an owner totally committed to winning, and we've never had a team that was complete. Thanks to Drayton McLane, games that were on TV in the past no longer are. Still, I like the young pitchers, and they should be the best in the league about the same time Drayton lets all our hitters go. Les Alexander is the only pro owner Houston has ever had who is worth a crap. God bless Les. ------------------ Some days you eat the bear. Some days the bear eats you.
