I think Detroit will win: 1) Their backcourt is tougher and savvier than the Spurs. Chauncey is probably the worst opponent for Parker to face. He is strong, fairly quick and very smart about using his physical advantages. Offensively he will post up Parker and force a double or switch (Billips was killing Damon Jones on the low block, and Jones has an inch and some pounds on Parker). The problem is Parker can't guard Rip or Prince either. This will create major problems for the Spurs. Defensively, Billips is quick enough (though not as quick as Parker) that with his size he will lay off him just enough to bother the jumper but not exposing himself for a blow by drive. Make no mistake Rip is probably the guy Detroit will go to if they need a basket. But Bowen alone isn't an answer. Rip's game isn't predicated on 1 on 1 breakdowns where Bowen's D shines, but Rip's come from screens and picks where just an inch lets him get that shot off. Thus the Spurs have to rely on switches, not just Bowen, and only Manu of their other guards I think won't get exploited in a switch(Parker--Rip can shoot right over, Barry--Rip can blow by, Beno-Rip can shoot right over). 2) Detroit is great at neutralizing role players and don't leave guys to wide open jumpers under any circumstance. Thus they will render spot up shooters Barry, Horry and Beno relatively ineffective offensively, and the Spurs will be better served using Bowen, Nahr, Parker and Manu higher minutes than previous series as they provide other qualities. Overall it really changes the dynamics of what the Spurs have been doing (Duncan kicking and ball rotation to the open 3 shooter). 3) TD will do his damage, but Detroit has the individual defenders to keep it from being devastating. Detroit does not believe in the automatic doubles. Ben Wallace, Sheed, McDyess, Campbell, maybe even Prince--no team has as many guys to mix and match versus Duncan. How is going to go and KEYS? I think we will see close to a repeat to last year, though I would think the Spurs can win 2. For SA offense versus Det defense, just like Shaq last year, Det will not do the auto doubles and Duncan will get his points. But the rest of the Spurs will have much narrower openings than they are used to. I think the hope, AND KEY with the Spurs offensively is can Duncan and Manu play out of their world, because I think the Spurs will lose every other battle as the Pistons counterparts are more versatile and dynamic players. That was why Miami had a chance, Wade playing out of this world in an inside-outside combo plus Shaq. But when you have the Wallaces, Prince and Rip (who made Wade work, who is stronger and quicker than Manu)--those are lots of top notch individual defenders to throw at them. For Det offense versus SA defense, it may be slow going as well. But when it all breaks down they can bring Chancey to the post, Rip off screens, or free Sheed for the long ball. What a lot of people seem to forget is Miami had a great defense too (within a few one-hundreths of the Spurs), yet the Pistons found ways to score. Offensively they are smart and use any match-up advantage, and they usually are some on the floor. In the end I think the team versatility, flexible scoring options, and backcourt toughness makes Detroit the winner of this series. Too much for TD and Manu to overcome.
Sorry to say I agree with most of what you say. What gives me hope the Pistons will lose is the Spurs' defense can be awesome at times, and the Pistons have a habit of going into scoring droughts. When the Spurs play their "A" game, they are like a machine that destroys teams. But I see Parker going into his shell and losing his confidence once he gets bumped around a few times. This, along with their well known lack of killer instinct and poor FT shooting will be too much to overcome. Very low scoring games; all will be very close. Pistons in 6.
Good points....I agree with all.....and I think the point that apolostolic3 made about freethrow shooting is going to be a big factor.....in close & low scoring games against Detroit, San Antonio's trademark choking at the line is going to doom them.
Whole lot of wishful thinking went into that post DesertScar. You do realize that in the last two years Hamilton has averaged 12.5 points in four games on .333 shooting. Billups will get his but Billups is NOWHERE near as quick or fast as Parker. If they try to play Parker straight up Parker will get in the paint all night long, question is can he finish over the Wallace boys and Prince? If Parker can hit his outside shot, not particularly likely, then the Pistons can kiss their fans goodnight and turn out the lights.
Too much wishful thinking, imo. The Heat were close to the Spurs in statistical defense, but I don't think anyone really believes the Heat are in the Spurs' league in terms of perimeter defense. And that's why I think the Spurs will win this series fairly easy. I'm picking 6 games because it'll be hard to eliminate Detroit at home, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes 5. I just don't see where the points are going to come from for Detroit in this series. The Pistons are a team (offensively) that thrives on the lack of discipline and fundamentals from other teams. Despite his incredible performance last night, Hamilton isn't a guy that can consistently score off the dribble and create. His game is about his superior conditioning and his ability to outwork and outhustle defenders by going around screens and wearing them down with his constant motion. Bruce Bowen is the perfect player to defend that... he's the dream for anyone trying to matchup with Detroit, imo. And if they have to switch, no team in the league plays better rotation defense than San Antonio. Also, since Rasheed doesn't seem to play in the post anymore, Robert Horry is the perfect matchup for him as well. Wallace kills most teams because the power forwards and/or centers aren't comfortable with their lateral movement and playing away from the basket. But that is Horry's game, and it can be Duncan's as well. You won't see Wallace getting the open looks from downtown that he does against most teams. As for Billups, he'll get his points here and there from going into the post. But he won't be able to do it consistently because the Spurs will help Parker down low and leave Ben Wallace open for that 10-14 foot jumper, which he'll miss most of the time. Also, for those of you talking about the Spurs and free throws, Detroit is shooting exactly 0.6 percent higher as a team in the playoffs. I don't think that's a substantial gap that will determine the series. The problem is that Detroit hasn't played a team with the penetration ability of this Spurs team. Yes, they did a great job limiting the open three-pointers against the Lakers. Why? Because the Lakers had a slow team that (with the exception of Kobe) you did not have to worry about driving to the basket. With the Spurs, Parker, Ginobili and even Barry and Horry to an extent love to fake the trey and take the ball inside. You have to give them more space on the perimeter than they do to most teams because everyone is capable of putting it on the floor and taking it to the rim. (Also, while everyone seems to predict that Billups can bully Parker with strength on one end, why doesn't anyone mention that Parker is much, much quicker than Billups and can beat him off the dribble at will?) I think some of the games will be close. Detroit has too much character and resolve to go down easily despite the talent differential. But when the games are on the line, I think the Spurs have the perfect defensive matchups for Detroit and I don't see where the points will come from. Wallace defends Duncan as well as anyone and Prince will be a challenge for Ginobili. But I'll still take those two options down the stretch over the alternatives for the Pistons. Spurs in 6.
I'd admit I want the Spurs to lose, but another who wants the Spurs to win agrees with this assessment... Parker has not faced this physically an opposing opponent in the playoffs since Marbury a couple years ago, and it wasn't pretty. I don't think it will be that bad, but I think Chancey will give him a lot more trouble than visa versa, and Chancey is a much more savvy player. Parker best chance to be effective offensively will be off the break, not half court versus Chancey and the interior help of Detroit. And the Pistons are 2-2 in those games, but more importantly, that was regular season. Lots of adjustments in a 7 game series and they are not just going to send Rip out their on an island on Bowen. It is going to take a very smart and effective collective defense to take away his looks, not just Bowen. Brown and Detroit will be far more deliberate about getting him the ball in good positions. Mia had about the equal FG% that SA did overall and Rip struggled against them in the regular season (as well as the 1st two geams of the series too) but Rip shot well over 50% the last 5 games. Again routing for Detroit, this is a big concern. If Detroit's offense impodes versus SA's defense it might be lead to easy baskets on the break. That is the way for Detroit to lose the series. In a slowed half court game, I think Detriot has more mismatches and adjustments they can do over a long series, only Duncan and possibly Manu will be able to score.
"But Bowen alone isn't an answer. Rip's game isn't predicated on 1 on 1 breakdowns where Bowen's D shines, but Rip's come from screens and picks where just an inch lets him get that shot off. " Are you kidding me? Bowen is widely regarded as the best off the ball defender in the league. Just watch a Spurs game and see how hard he works to deny his man the ball. I agree with previous posters about the problems Horry will create as well. Detroit lives off the mismatch 'sheed creates against other teams' fours. However, when Horry comes in the game, then Duncan moves over to the five, where he'll make an undersized Ben Wallace look even worse than Shaq did in the ECF. And if Rasheed comes over to double, well, I think we all know what Horry does with wide open looks come play off time. Spurs in 6.
Who is better at penetrating and breaking down defenses? Manu Ginobili or Dwayne Wade? The answer to that determines who to place your bets on. I'm betting the series on Detroit.
You're living with a myth common to people who haven't watched Parker's game the last couple of years. Parker was bothered by big, strong defenders in the 2003 playoffs, first Marbury but only in the first couple of games then Parker adjusted and held his own. Then when Parker was having success against Dallas then NJ they threw Finley then Kittles at him with success. Parker has since adjusted and can deal with big/strong defenders. What kills Parker is when he can't hit his outside shot and the defenders can lay off him and go under screens neutralizing his speed. Also when the Spurs shooters aren't hitting from the outside so that when he penetrates and kicks it out it's to no avail. Against poor interior defenses Parker is deadly. That's not the Pistons. When Parker gets out in transition he's deadly. Pistons are not likely to allow that. If Parker is hitting his outside shot he and the Spurs are basically unbeatable but that's iffy. Basically it isn't up to Chauncey. It's up to Parker and to the other Pistons defenders. Chauncey can't stay in front of Parker. He can only play off him and hope Parker's shot isn't falling.
But when you make that comparison, also consider that there's a good chance Miami wins that series if not for Wade's injury. I do think Ginobili will break down defenses better than the injured Wade of Game 7 did. Also, the penetration ability of Parker and the defense of Bowen are much better than Damon and Eddie Jones' abilities in Miami. FWIW, Vegas has the Spurs as a fairly substantial favorite at -240. The Pistons are at +210.
Parker is going to get past Billups; Chauncey is strong enough to knock him on his butt a few times but he might allow Detroit's imposing front line to bruise and batter Tony. McDyess/Ben W/Rasheed W/Elden.... These same big guys can keep Duncan from having many explosive games. Manu has been playing very well and we'll see how well he fares against Rip and Prince. I'd have to give the edge to the defending champs. But it's tough to bet against the Spurs.
I'll break it down... This years Finals will be the most boring Finals in the history of the NBA. And I'm not watching... And... it should be a Rockets/Heat Finals.
Cat, I have to disagree on a couple of points. The Spurs are not another league defensively from Mia (or Indy from last year), and Detroit found ways to score enough. Further, the Detroit from the last two years had been the best team at taking away opponents 3s. Though Detroit wasn't as consistent defensively in the regular season as they should have been, in the playoffs the ratchit up. They, not the Spurs, have the best rotations to the wings and switches (1-5 they have the most interchangable parts) and collective defensive inteligence. I agree with you the Spurs will have to drive. But only 1 guy has been able to do that for 2 years in the playoffs versus Detroit, Wade. Personally I don't see either Manu or Parker being able to do it regularly, neither has Wade's combination of strength, explosiveness and quickness. If any of the Spurs can do it with some success it will be Manu, a lot of onus on him to break them down. But versus Prince or Rip, it will not be easy. Further, Detroit would love to see Horry and Barry try to drive on them, Horry isn't even very good off the dribble against below average defense. I do agree points may be scarce for Detroit, but I think many overestimate the Spurs defense. Their playoff opponents FG% is not that impressive and not just against the Suns, Detroit can free Rip the way Seattle did for Allen--it isn't like they just isolate those guys for Bowen to play. That is not how those teams use their shooters. Further, I would not say Detroit need's lack of discipline and fundamentals to score. SVG's Miami was among the most disciplined and fundamental team defenses. Rather Detroit almost always will have favorable individualy match-ups against opponents--Chancey or Sheed posting up, and use a lot of motion and screen to free up Rip. They are efficient at finding weaknesses, and I see Parker, Beno and Barry all being very exploitable defensively by the Pistons back-court. I think for the Spurs to win they must turn defense into easy offense. Fast breaking is one of their major areas of advantage. But I don't think Detroit and Brown will allow the games to turn into that, and I see more half court match-ups favoring the Pistons. Duncan is going to have to play like a slam dunk MVP (25+, 12+, 3+blk on 50%+ shooting and 70%+FT) and Manu like a legit all-star (20-6-6?) for the Spurs to win, because the other guys will be taken out.
If Larry Brown decides to pound the ball thru this avenue, there is no way in hell Bob Horry is going to stop Rasheed on the low block one-on-one. He is simply not strong enough. This is the same Horry that Mo Taylor used to punish and light up in the paint two years ago. Horry is now older and Rasheed, to put it frankly, is a lot f*#king better than Taylor
Another point in favor of Det winning this series will be the play of Ben Wallace. Look for his play and energy to be stepped up in this series without having to expend as much energy guarding Shaq.
Parker is a better defender than Damon Jones, particularly a Damon Jones on a bad foot. Ginobili is a better defender than Wade. Bowen is a better defender than Eddie Jones. Duncan is a better defender than Haslem. Mohammed and Nesterovic are even better defenders against the pick and roll and guys coming off screens, the Pistons offensive staples, than Shaq is. The Spurs as a team play better man to man and better roational, help defense. They are far more disciplined on defense than Miami. It isn't even close.
That's not really saying much at all. If Parker has to guard Billups all game, the Spurs are in trouble. But if Parker doesn't guard Billups, who is he going to guard? Hamilton is the only other choice, Hamilton will have a field day with that matchup. Det will attack Parker and make him defend, which will take away from his offensive game. Spurs do guard the pick and roll very well, but Det will always make that extra pass. My only concern besides Duncan who will get his no matter what, will be the containment of Ginobili. The best option to guard him will be Prince and then Hunter off the benchl
