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This report from Gallup is saying that Obama got a NET bounce from the conventions. Roughly 2 to 3 points. http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/09/obama_mccain_polls_plus_for_ob.html
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20080907/pl_politico/13228 GOP bounce: McCain overtakes Obama John McCain has overtaken Barack Obama in the Gallup daily tracking poll and has his highest level of support in that poll since early May. McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 45 percent among registered voters, by Gallup’s measure. McCain has so far earned the same convention bounce as Obama, though at a more rapid pace. Obama peaked at a 5-point convention bounce in polling published last Tuesday. He was ahead 49 percent to 43 percent in the Gallup poll conducted before the Republican convention. He then soared to 50 percent for the first time of the election, by Gallup’s measure, while McCain fell to 42 percent. McCain’s 5-point to 6-point bounce so far, like Obama’s, remains at par with historical expectations. In the 22 major-party conventions since 1964, the nominee walked away with, on average in most years, a 5-point to 6-point uptick in Gallup’s polls. The presidential polling will likely remain in flux until the middle of next week. Today's Gallup report continues to include some polling conducted prior to McCain's acceptance speech. Tomorrow's report will be the first to include interviews solely conducted following the close of the GOP convention. Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll also reported today that when "leaners” are included, Obama and McCain are now tied at 48 percent. That means that, by Rasmussen’s measure, Obama’s 6-point bounce has been erased. CBS News polling had shown the same outcome midway through the GOP convention. McCain’s resurgence in the polls comes as Nielsen Media Research reported that the Republican convention earned more television viewers than the Democratic convention. Republicans earned an average audience of 34.5 million, while Democrats earned an average viewership of 30.2 million. Obama, McCain and GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin all earned a similar and record audience for their convention speeches, each nearing about 40 million viewers.
McCain/Palin got their bounce! Not surprising, although time will tell if it lasts. If it did, that would be a surprise. Republicans, enjoy it while you can!
This bounce should tell everyone that Republicans want to believe, and that Democrats better not stay home come november
Batman, thank you for starting this thread. As soon as you begin to crow and throw up polls that are favorable to your candidate, things take a turn for the worse for you, don't they? Now, this doesn't rank as high in my book as your Election Day 2004 exit polling debacle, but it is yet another case of PREMATURE SPECULATION on your part. Seems like every time you open your mouth with regard to polls, you are quickly proven wrong. At least this time it took you a week (and not a single day). You are getting better! HO HO HO
Well, Obama has to attack now; he's gone down in the polls and now is when he needs to hit the hardest. Perhaps all is as it should be, but the poll numbers in early September usually mean a net minus once it shakes out in the electoral college. I hope at least there will be a true natioanal debate this time. Nlech.
