The war's over, guys. Jeff Bagwell is in the Hall of Fame and whatever opposition exists is now just empty noise being shouted into a vacuum. Have at it, Joe Smith.
Jose Altuve is running ~10 points behind Bagwell in bWAR at roughly the same point in their careers. And Altuve's peak may very well be behind him. He's going to need a ridiculously impressive end to his career to get into Bagwell's (WAR) orbit. Bregman has a real shot; he's ~3 points off Bagwell's early career bWAR. Will be very interesting to see where he ends up.
I think Altuve will have a longer career than Bagwell. Plus, I think 2b defense gets valued more highly than 1b, which should help make up for Altuve's lack of power compared to Bagwell. I am concerned though, like you mentioned, that Altuve's peak might be behind me. There were plenty of occasions last season where I kept expecting Altuve to turn it on, and it didn't happen. I think it'll be close. I hope Bregman continues to mash. It's a joy watching both of them play.
Depending on the methodology.... I don't think it'll be close. Altuve is nearing 60% of Bagwell's total plate appearances and trails in bWAR by 41.4. 41.4! So, essentially, his next ~3,900 PAs (6 seasons) need to be better than his first ~5,500 just to *catch* Bagwell. And Altuve will be 30 this season and is starting to show wear and tear (his PAs the past two years are down ~115/season). Sure, Altuve could play significantly longer - but, remember: Biggio has ~3,000 more PAs than Bagwell and still trails in bWAR by 14.4. At the end of 2003, Biggio had 9,274 PAs (Bagwell finished with 9.431) and a 61.3 bWAR. He was only able to add 4.2 bWAR his final five (full) seasons. Now, if Altuve creeps into the upper 50s/lower 60s, you could start to argue his postseason success makes up any difference. The emotional connection to him is going to be immeasurable. None of this is to denigrate Altuve, of course, and certainly not to piss all over your post - it's really more to demonstrate that even among Astros fans, Bagwell tends to be underrated. Fans know he was great - I'm not sure many realize *how* great. He is among the 50 greatest hitters of all-time and the second-best NL 1B ever. And this Joe Smith character can play in traffic.
https://theathletic.com/1457115/201...-celebrating-the-greatest-players-in-history/ No. 100: Ichiro Suzuki No. 99: Mike Mussina No. 98: Carlos Beltrán No. 97: Roberto Alomar No. 96: Larry Walker No. 95: Tony Gwynn No. 94: Roy Campanella No. 93: Ozzie Smith No. 92: Bullet Rogan No. 91: Mariano Rivera No. 90: Max Scherzer No. 89: Mike Piazza No. 88: Curt Schilling No. 87: Charlie Gehringer No. 86: Gary Carter No. 85: Sadaharu Oh No. 84: Cool Papa Bell No. 83: Phil Niekro No. 82: Kid Nichols No. 81: Ferguson Jenkins No. 80: Carlton Fisk No. 79: Derek Jeter No. 78: Clayton Kershaw No. 77: Miguel Cabrera No. 76: Willie McCovey No. 75: Justin Verlander No. 74: Frank Thomas No. 73: Brooks Robinson No. 72: Robin Roberts No. 71: Bert Blyleven No. 70: Sandy Koufax No. 69: Monte Irvin No. 68: Gaylord Perry No. 67: Hank Greenberg No. 66: Robin Yount No. 65: Ernie Banks No. 64: Johnny Mize No. 63: Steve Carlton No. 62: Smokey Joe Williams No. 61: Arky Vaughan No. 60: Pete Rose No. 59: Reggie Jackson No. 58: Jeff Bagwell No. 57: Rod Carew No. 56: Joe DiMaggio No. 55: Bob Feller No. 54: Chipper Jones No. 53: Buck Leonard No. 52: Adrián Beltré No. 51: Al Kaline No. 50: Nolan Ryan No. 49: Warren Spahn No. 48: Ken Griffey Jr. No. 47: Wade Boggs No. 46: Eddie Mathews No. 45: Bob Gibson No. 44: Cal Ripken Jr. No. 43: Yogi Berra No. 42: Jackie Robinson No. 41: Tom Seaver No. 40: Roberto Clemente No. 39: Nap Lajoie No. 38: Carl Yastrzemski No. 37: Pedro Martínez No. 36: Christy Mathewson No. 35: George Brett No. 34: Cy Young No. 33: Jimmie Foxx No. 32: Mel Ott No. 31: Greg Maddux No. 30: Johnny Bench No. 29: Eddie Collins No. 28: Randy Johnson No. 27: Mike Trout No. 26: Grover Cleveland Alexander No. 25: Pop Lloyd No. 24: Rickey Henderson No. 23: Albert Pujols No. 22: Lefty Grove No. 21: Joe Morgan No. 20 (tie): Frank Robinson No. 20 (tie): Mike Schmidt No. 18: Tris Speaker No. 17: Rogers Hornsby No. 16: Alex Rodriguez No. 15: Josh Gibson No. 14: Lou Gehrig No. 13: Roger Clemens No. 12: Honus Wagner No. 11: Mickey Mantle No. 10: Satchel Paige No. 9: Stan Musial No. 8: Ty Cobb No. 7: Walter Johnson No. 6: Ted Williams No. 5: Oscar Charleston No. 4: Henry Aaron No. 3: Barry Bonds No. 2: Babe Ruth No. 1: Willie Mays
I can't believe they put the steroid users in there and are just willing to pretend like it didn't matter. The mentality is f'd up. They need to clean up the list.
I can't believe Beltrán is on the list at all while several bona fide Hall of Famers are omitted. I don't think dude had a hall of fame career. Am I underestimating him?
Some of this may be due to his longevity, but he's 53rd all time in runs scored, 62nd in hits, 34th in total bases, 28th in doubles, 46th in home runs, 24th in XBH, 41st in RBI's, That probably warrants discussion for Top 100. His career numbers are extremely similar to Andre Dawson's, who is a hall of famer. Beltran (20 seasons) .279 AVG, 2,725 hits, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 Runs Dawson (21 seasons) .279 AVG, 2,774 hits, 438 HR, 1,591 RBI, 1,373 Runs
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29142768/90-yes-90-wild-mlb-seasons-only-happen-1990s Owns the highest ranked season of the 90s by a 1st baseman
For bagwell to be 10 behind Griffey Jr shows accurate value. Griffey Jr was ranked slightly ahead of bagwell due to injuries suffered by Griffey. Then chipper Jones, an outfielder, is ranked four ahead of bagwell primarily due to national league dominance of braves. The braves went to national league playoffs more often than Astros so it makes sense that chipper Jones is ranked ahead of bagwell on the best 100 baseball players.
He's a definite HOFer (though we'll see how much the scandal effects that). He was a very good player for a very long time. He'll get bonus points as a switch-hitter (something I've always thought was kind of silly since what really matters is your ability to hit both types of pitchers). Guys don't play 20 years, make 9 all-star teams, and then not go to the HOF, unless they are tainted by roids or ineligible.
Chipper played 2 seasons in the OF to make way for Vinny Castilla. Chipper Jones is one of the top 5 3B to ever play the game.
Glavine, smoltz, and glavine could easily replace Frank Thomas, Pete rose, and Mike piaazza. How is Frank Thomas on the list and Jermaine dye, white Sox world series MVP not listed!?!?
Ryan was more of a legendary pitcher than a great pitcher. They have him as the 14th best pitcher and it's hard to argue with the 13 ahead of him. Satchel Paige is probably the most arguable as we unfortunately don't know how he would have fared with a full career in the major leagues.