Nice list... but for the players who made it to the majors, note that most of them did not spend a full season at AAA (Strasburg did not spend half a season there and Heyward was only there briefly). Those guys are perfect examples of how teams don't have their star prospects spend a lot of time at AAA anymore. My point is that AAA is now more for seasoning a player right before he's about to make the jump to the majors, rather than simply being the "highest level" that a player has to prove himself prior to making the big leagues. Sure there are some teams that still will have a great prospect spend large chunks of time at AAA... but it happens much less often now. More often than not, if a player as success at AA, he's going to eventually make it to the majors. He likely will stop at AAA, but not for a large chunk of time. If he is at AAA for a large chunk of time, its either because somebody is blocking him at the big leagues, or he's just not good enough. Teams still have to have space on their AAA rosters for the career minor leaguers and veterans that will be able to step in in case of injury.
That's true for top tier prospects - just as top tier players in the NBA are ready right out of high school. That does not mean, however, that the rest of the players don't get valuable experience and improve their game by going to college. The vast majority of MLB players spend significant time at AAA and rightfully so - there are only small exceptions that make the leap from AA, and those are the elite guys. No current Astros prospect qualifies in that camp of being so good that they don't need experience at the AAA level.
I'm sold then. I'll admit the first thing I thought when I saw that video was that he was on something, but that report is true then by all means draft this guy if you can.
I never said they should skip AAA alltogether... but MLB-ready prospects spend less time at AAA nowadays than they did 10-15 years ago. Its no longer a league where scouts and organizations put players in to "prove" themselves over an extended period of time. That's largely done at AA. Unless you're on the cusp of making it in the majors, and the team is tuning you up in AAA (like the Nats did with Strasberg), a teams "best" prospect is not going to spend all that much time there.
A team's "best" or elite prospect is not going to spend all that much time anywhere. It's a steady progression or, in some rare cases, a big leap. Not much has changed down on the farm. The laws of nature still prevail. And, right now, J.D. Martinez is hitting like Robert Redford in The Natural.
I don't think the evidence shows that at all. That's true if your best prospect is Heyward or Strasburg. If your best prospect is at the level of, for example, a Hunter Pence, then they absolutely will spend a decent amount of time in AAA.
I think Wikipedia has some good basic summaries of AA and AAA: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minor_league_baseball#Triple-A Triple-A Triple-A leagues usually hold many of the remaining 15 players of the 40-man major league roster whom the major league club has chosen not to play at the major league level. It has recently been referred to as a "spare parts" classification, because frequently a player who is good enough for the majors (especially if he had signed with a team needing someone to play his natural position) is held in reserve at the minor league level for major league emergencies. Some veteran minor league players are informally called "Four A" players, meaning they are generally regarded as more experienced than a Triple-A player on his way up, yet are not talented enough to stay in the major leagues or do not project as having as much growth in their abilities as those who are less experienced. Some of the top prospects might be assigned here if they are not quite ready for the major leagues, with the potential to be called up later in the season. Players at this level from the 40-man roster of a major league team can be invited to come up to the major league club once the major league roster expands on September 1, although teams will usually wait until their affiliates' playoff runs are over, should they qualify. For teams in contention for a pennant, it gives them fresh players. For those not in contention, it gives them an opportunity to evaluate their second-tier players against major-league competition. Double-A Some players will jump to the majors from this level, as many of the top prospects are put here to play against each other, rather than against minor and major league veterans in Triple-A. A small handful of players might be placed here to start, usually veterans from foreign leagues with more experience in professional baseball. The expectation is usually that these players will be in the majors by the end of the season, as their salaries tend to be higher than those of most prospects.
I put a lot of effort into that copy/paste. I think everybody made valid points about AA vs AAA. I think there have been some minor shifts in how organizations view and utilize these two levels over the last decade or so but nothing overwhelming. The bottom line is that AAA has a lot of older, fringe players as well as aging, former prospects while AA has a much higher percentage of players still viewed with high upside. I think Nick is absolutely right that organizations will often use AAA as nothing more than a spring board for younger, better prospects. There are exceptions but relatively young players that the organizations is excited about, like J.D. Martinez, probably doesn't go up to RR at this point since he is unlikely to be in the majors anytime soon.
But Hunter Pence spent 25 games at AAA vs. 136 at AA. For comparisons sake, Lance Berkman (who was a much higher thought of prospect... a first round pick, and overall considered to be "fast-tracked" by the organization), spent 112 games at AAA 10 years ago. My point is that if a guy succeeds at AA, most organizations will almost assuredly promote that guy to the majors at some point... most will go to AAA for a little bit, but its merely just for a taste (whereas in years past, guys were made to "prove" themselves at AAA just like they had at AA).
Every prospect is different. Tim Lincecum skipped AA and went straight from A+ to AAA. He didn't stay long in AAA either because he's an "elite" player. Dave Winfiled went straight from High School to the Padres. Then, you've got your J.R. Towles and Jason Lanes of the world. You've got Albert Pujols who spent a full season at A and had less less than 85 AB at A+ and a handful of AB at AAA before joining the Cardinals. Every prospect takes a different road, but most prospects have always had to have pretty good success at the AAA level. Some players prove themselves good enough to make the jump to mlb after high school, college, A, AA as we've seen in some cases. Players like Joe Mauer, Hanley Ramirez and even Michael Bourn to an extent follow the theory that "elite" prospects spend time in AA and don't waste their time hitting against AAA pitching (whether or not you consider them has-beens or never will-bes.) As for the Astros, we don't have any Joe Mauers or Hanley Ramirezes or Dave Winfields right now. We've got a Jason Castro, a Kobe Clemens, a Brian Bogusevic, a Wesley Wright and a handful of other guys in AAA and a Jordan Lyles and some prospects in AA and a J.D. Martinez in Lexington (who is why this debate started I think.) In the ASTROS farm system, in my opinion, there is not much difference between Lexington and Lancaster, but a large difference in pitching at Corpus. And, I think if a guy can hit at Corpus, he'll do pretty well at Round Rock. That's up for further debate. Maybe in the draft we can get one of those "elite" prospects. Time will tell.
Castro went 2-4 tonight with a HR and 2 RBIs. Average now up to .284, and he's been pretty consistent at the plate now for an extended stretch after his horrible start. Also, not Astros related... but Mike Stanton (see above list, #3 ranked prospect) just got promoted to the big leagues straight from AA. Dude was raking there (already had 20+ HR's). He's only 20 years old and was a 2nd round pick by Florida in 2007. Not bad.
Castro's 6 for his last 11. Dude's mashing as of late. Q and Cash better start hitting (and they have lately) or the calls for Castro will begin to get noisy, I think.
I have no idea why this guy isn't in High A or much less AA. He is turning 23 years old soon and other than Jay Austin, he is probably the best OF prospect in the system. TJ Steele and Jonathan Gaston had awful Aprils in Corpus but have show signs of life lately. However, Steele has terrible plate discipline. It's really bad. The outfielders in High A other than Austin are not prospects so just move him up. Doesn't make any sense to me.
