not sure what the infatuation is with Marisnick... seems pretty average to me. If we really are trying to field the best team possible i don't see how he starts.
He's young and toolsy. He's got elite defense and speed with average-upside power. If he can hit even reasonably well (.260-.270 with a .310-.320ish OBP) he could be a 3-4 WAR player. Even if the offense doesn't come around, as long as its not Singletonesque, his defense could be worth 1-2 WAR.
thats if he comes out firing and can keep it up... Fowler is already a 2 WAR player so i dont like the idea of pushing him out for an unproven guy if we are trying to actually win. if we are still looking to the future than sure throw out the young guy but Fowler imo should be the starting CF.
They had Fowler in CF even with Springer and Marisnick last year. Why would anyone assume the team changes that?
Fowler is the CF now, he was the CF when he came back last year, and he was the CF after Porter was fired. He's the proven MLB player that will carry weight over the still unproven Marisnick. Lastly, in his contract year if he doesn't want to play LF (which was the case last year), he's not going to play LF. If he demands a trade, the Astros will be forced to dump him for peanuts (as it is, they're shopping him around due to his impending free agency). Also, Marisnick should not be the LF. They should try and acquire one. The only way Jake will become an everyday player is if Fowler is hurt or traded.
Exactly... and if anything, they need an upgrade at LF to complement Springer/Fowler for actual runs. Fowler is not going to lose games with his defense... and will create more runs at the plate than Marisnick. An upgraded LF from Grossman/Pressley/Marisnick will contribute even more runs. More runs = more wins. Upgraded LF/Fowler/Springer is better than Marisnick/Fowler/Springer... and they should look to acquire an OF if they are serious about winning now.
I hadn't read back through the thread to see why you asked that. Fowler should start over Marisnick no question. But among the younger guys Marisnick does have an upside greater than anyone other than Springer and Singleton and that can't be ignored in the conversation.
Agreed there... makes the decision to hang on to Pressley AND Grossman all the more peculiar (but also makes sense if they plan on moving Fowler before the season starts).
Fowler posted a 1.7 WAR in 505 PA, Marisnick posted a 1.4 WAR in 237 PA. I don't see how you guys seem to think it's "obvious" that Fowler is the more valuable starter. He has posted a -44 Defensive runs over his career. I am in favor of pushing Fowler out in favor of Marisnick in CF. Even if Marisnick never gets his OPS over .700, I think his elite defense in CF makes him as valuable as Fowler.
Marisnick is an elite defender, while Fowler is below average. Marisnick in CF will likely produce a higher WAR than Fowler in CF or LF. Like you said, wins are wins, so Marisnick in CF it is.
It's this simple. I don't understand how people can't be interested in Marisnick. His defensive value alone makes him worth playing every day if it is center field. I would love to see Fowler moved, Marisnick to center, and then use the Fowler money to go after a left fielder. Also, take a look at Marisnick's AAA numbers in 2014. Give this guy some time and it looks like he can be a .740+ OPS guy. Not great, but really good when paired with his defense.
It's kind of complicated the numbers determines (using film study and computer comparisons) how many more or fewer successful plays a defensive player will make than league average. For instance, if a shortstop makes a play that only 24% of shortstops make, he will get .76 of a point (1 full point minus .24). If a shortstop BLOWS a play that 82% of shortstops make, then you subtract .82 of a point. And at the end, you add it all up and get a plus/minus. If you want a more traditional raw number. Marisnick posted a 2.57 range factor while Fowler posted a 2.18 range factor. Considering Fowler played the most chance heavy position, while Marisnick played the chance light RF that is a massive difference.
But he didn't produce a higher WAR at CF than Fowler... and will likely never be a top of the order type hitter like Fowler is now. If they get the price they want for Fowler, move him... especially if they're getting actual MLB-ready players back. If they're serious about winning now, however, they'd be a better team with an upgraded LF, Fowler and Springer.
Fowler's ability to get on base and be a formidable top of the lineup hitter is what will keep him in the lineup over the "sub .700" OPS Marisnick (I know he's not sub .700, but he won't be in any lineup at that level). This offense was at its best last year with Fowler/Altuve getting on base at an elite level at the top of the order.. combine that with Springer/Carter and a possible bounce back from Castro, and that's close to a legitimate major league lineup. This team has been bad for so long, and the offense has been anemic for so long, that some of you have forgotten what's involved in cultivating actual consistent run production.
The Astros won't be "forced" to do anything. Fowler can request a trade all he wants, doesn't mean it has to happen.
You're not going to waste a roster spot on a player that doesn't want to be there. The Astros will not be playing hardball with their own players... especially not ones that actually have a semblance of trade value. But as it is its a moot point... by all accounts, Fowler's either the CF or he's being traded.
