This talk about Chris Carpenter is confusing me. The guy plays for a team that scores like 7 runs a game on average... so what if he's won 16 games. Does Carpenter have a case for winning the cy-young?
Whoops - hit submit too soon. Whether its right or wrong, voters seem to take into account wins... so unless the voters change their attitudes soon, Roger will have that going against him. Although the whole "historical season" aspect may be enough to overcome it.
To be fair, it kind of is. Roger's wins got him the award over Randy's superior performance because Randy didn't get any support. Where Roger this year has the advantage Randy didn't is that he's on course for one of the most insanely brilliant and consistent seasons in history. Randy was very good last year, but this year Roger is just incredible.
well then it's the same as clemens beating garcia in 2001 with the 9th best ERA even though garcia was leading the league in ERA. and garcia had a very good record (18 and something), but since clemens was 20-3 with all of that yankee run support, the voters gave it to him for some reason. clemens should easily win it over carpenter at this point if the voters were rational (i don't understand how he's doing it after not being this good for a while, but all he does is go 7 innings and give up 0 or 1 runs and he has a nice win/loss at 11-4), but history says they should give it to carpenter b/c he's got a nasty ERA and a nasty amount of wins and pitches a lot of innings and plays on a very good team. of course, clemens has been so amazing, and is now in the 1.30's, that it might be impossible to ignore. either way, count on the voters continuing their love affair with clemens and giving him another cy young.
2 games up still....but the Marlins are 1 back in the loss column. I would prefer to get about 5-7 up. DD
How is it confusing you? I love the stros...but Carpenter is ridiculous this year. He's leading in wins, 2nd in ERA (with a GREAT ERA, mind you...just not as incredible as Roger's), but he leads Roger in basically every other category. K's, CG's, not to mention he beat Roger straight up.. I want Roger to get the Cy, but Carpenter has a pretty airtight case over Roger right now (though not by much). I heard on one of the ESPN shows that if you take away one of Carpenter's bad outings, then his ERA is a lot closer to Roger's.. so basically he's one bad start away from equalling Roger's ERA, and leading him across the board otherwise..
Yes... but the bottom line is that his ERA is not close to Roger's. I agree that Carpenter has had one helluva season... but in the end the voters will vote for Roger (with possible east coast bias), so as Astro fans, we shouldn't really need to argue it (that's what Cards fans are doing right now... with vehement anger). A couple of interesting ways to look at it: 1.) If Carpenter and Clemens switch teams, things would be made a lot more clearer. Roger would have more wins, the same fabulous ERA, and maybe perhaps he has just one complete game playing with that offense that can put up 7 runs a game for him (I wager it would be one of Roger's earlier starts where we lost three straight games 1-0). If Carpenter was on the Astros, he has the same ERA, but definitely fewer wins, and fewer IP as a result of not being able to finish all these games because of possible lack of run support and needed to be pinch-hit for. In that case, Roger wins in a landlslide... and its simply based on his wins and ERA. Thus, a lot of the #'s "across the board" are largely impacted by the team you play for, and I doubt the voters are going to do a systematic analysis when figuring out who they want to win. Carp's K's, IP and CG's are far less sexy if he was on the Astros, and as I said before, they would be less anyways because he's not playing for a team that scores as many runs for him. 2.) Its Clemens award to LOSE. That's how the voters give these awards out to the bonafied for-sure HOFers. In the NBA, it was always Michael Jordan's MVP to lose, unless another future HOFer had a career year. With the MVP in baseball, its been Barry Bonds' award to lose even in years where his team didn't make the playoffs. Until Clemens either becomes ineffective, or hangs it up, he'll always get the benefit of the doubt regarding the award... especially against a guy (Carpenter) who is having his first breakthrough year after a # of injury-plagued seasons. And has Clemens pitched bad enough to lose the award this year?... hell no.
In other great news ... went to the Mets game in NY to boo Beltran, and I wasn't the only one booing him. He scored a couple runs early off an error and some bad play by the Cubs, but late in the game he hit into a double-play and everyone in the crowd booed and said, "Theres the Beltran we know," and "Give us our money back Carlos!" I really enjoyed that part of the game ... Plus the sCrUBS losing made me feel good
I love watching Clemens and I love the Astros, but it's too much to say Carpenter didn't back up his case for the Cy Young this year. One of the stats that glares out is the fact that he beat Clemens 3-0 that one game. I was hoping like nothing else that Atlanta will pull out with the win yesterday, but Eckstein hit a Walk Off Grand Slam. What it comes down to is that the voters will not pay attention to every single game and how the games were won. They look at stats, and sadly, Carpenter's stats are seemingly more impressive. Clemens has the ERA unlike anything for the past few decades, but a few wins here, more CGs, Ks, etc.... That's hard to overturn. Also put in the fact that he beat Dontrelle head to head wouldn't hurt his case either. It's pretty amazing actually, having Dontrelle, Carpenter, and Clemens all pitch on the same day so many times in a row. Maybe that will get something started in order to get Clemens over the top. A few bad outings by Carpenter coupled with great outings by Clemens should catch the voter's attentions some.
Thought you'd find this interesting: During the last 46 games of 2004, the Astros scored 265 runs (5.76 r/g) and allowed 199 (4.33 r/g). 36-10 record (.783) During their last 46 games, the Astros have scored 235 runs (5.10 r/g) and allowed 144 (3.13 r/g). 33-13 record (.718) League average runs scored/allowed per game in '04 - 4.64, '05 ytd - 4.48 Astros Runs Scored/Game vs. Runs Allowed/Game '05 April - 3.82 vs. 3.64 May - 3.38 vs. 5.14 June - 4.65 vs. 3.42 July/Aug - 4.94 vs. 3.03
Carpenter might win the Cy Young because of wins (irrelevant), but if any voter points out that game, they should have their vote revoked. Clemens was facing one of the greatest lineups in recent history... Carpenter was facing one of the bottom offenses in the NL and an offense that only scored 5 runs the entire series. "Head-to-head" pitching matchups are overrated... they're only relevant if the pitchers are facing two comparable lineups. In the case of the Cards and Stros, it's not even close. Furthermore, Clemens only gave up one earned run that game... two came on the error. imo, the fact that Clemens gave up one earned run that game against the Cards offense is more impressive than Carpenter getting the shutout. Those categories, however, are far, far less relevant than ERA. A pitcher goes out there with the intention of allowing the other team to score as few runs as possible. That's his job. Sure, it's great if he can get a lot of strikeouts. But the first priority is to allow as few runs as possible, and Roger does that at a much greater rate than Carpenter. Almost a full run better. Also, while I'm sure Carpenter had a bad start, one bad start doesn't equal almost a full run in ERA... so to say it would equal Roger's ERA isn't accurate at all. But, the thing is, every pitcher would like to take that one bad start out of their ERA. Clemens gave up 4 runs in 5 innings against STL in June... imagine what his ERA could be if not for that start! It's silly to say "his ERA would be this if not for one start" unless you're taking the worst start away from Clemens as well.
