After watching all of their first 11 games, this team has me genuinely convinced that it could really be special. Nothing new, but I was wondering what everyone thinks Gerry and Drayton's longterm view is for this team. Assuming that this team lives up to expectations and produces in the postseason (if not winning everything, at least a series or two), many possibilities exist. Judging from his early performance, Roger may be capable of pitching 2-3 more years after this. Unlikely, but if not, the rotation still looks to be formidable without any new additions and losing Clemens. Buckholtz and Hernandez could either: A. Battle to replace Clemens spot as the new #5 with Wade and Redding sliding up. or B. Replace Redding and Clemens as 4 and 5. Either way, both seem like ideal young pitchers to slide in behind Oswalt, Pettite, and Miller. They will have a full season to gain experience at AAA, then be foaming at the mouth for a September callup. Now, looking at the overall payroll, the following salaries could be off the books after this year: Biggio ($7 mil) Kent (6-8) Clemens (5) Hidalgo (12) That's possibly $30-32 million off the payroll by losing four older players, but the beauty of the situation is that all seem to have viable internal replacements. Clemens - Hernandez/Buckholtz as mentioned above. Kent - Chris Burke should be ready to take over as the starter at 2nd and the new leadoff hitter, should Biggio retire. If he can't handle it alone, Vizcaino and/or Tommy Whiteman could play here as well. Hidalgo/Biggio - These two could return, but probably not both. Hopefully, the fairy tale comes true and Biggio can ride off into the sunset with a ring. If not, he could be back at a smaller ($3 mil) price or just retire. I would prefer to let Biggio go and resign Hidalgo at a about half ($6-7 mil for 2-3 years) to play right, with Lane taking over in CF. So, back to the big picture, the Stros could be looking at a $50 million payroll and only one or two holes (CF/RF) to fill. What should they do? My plan would be this: Drayton should look to maintain a $75-80 payroll by reinvesting the profits he will surely make from a good playoff run. 1. Resign Oswalt and Miller to longterm deals, a la Oakland with the Big 3. Give Oswalt $36 mil over 4 years and Miller $20 over 3. That's a combined total of $15 spent to fortify the future. Then, with the remaining $15 mil... 2. Sign Carlos Beltran. I know it's a longshot, but something similar to the Vlad Guerrero deal could be done. With Bagwell set to come off in another year or two, Beltran could pick up his salary slot, while Berkman can slide over to first in place of Bagwell. If Beltran proves too expensive, I would resign Hidalgo at a reduced price and let Lane have CF. Look at the projected two-three year turnover of the rotation and lineup with this plan: Biggio-Burke Everett Bagwell-Berkman Kent-Beltran Berkman-Lane Hidalgo-Lane Ensberg Ausmus-Buck Oswalt Pettite Miller Clemens-Buckholtz/Hernandez Redding-Buckholtz/Hernandez Dotel-Lidge What do you guys think? It seems Gerry and Drayton have positioned themselves well to maintain the momentum created by this offseason and (hopefully) season. While letting those four veterans leave could backlash as a sign of old thrifty ways, maintaining the same payroll, identifying and resigning the young cornerstones early, and bringing in a premier young superstar like Beltran would show that the management is commited to fielding a competitive team. How would you play it if you were Drayton and Gerry?
Beltran is the guy I want...no doubt about it. We should do almost everything in our power to get that guy. I like the way this team is going.
I think both Hidalgo and Beltran are in for big pay days in the offseason. Doubt either will be Astros next season.
I believe the Astros currently have the perfect mix of young and old players... with the young guys at the most important position out there (starting pitching). The way the team performs this year will impact a lot of decisions made in the off-season. 1.) Hidalgo - If he continues at this current torrid pace, he's not only going to be an MVP candidate, but he'll likely be due for a RAISE from his current (previously thought to be albatross) salary. Isn't that funny! Even though its doubtful he can keep this up the entire year, he may be out of the 'Stros price range regardless. 2.) Biggio - Once again... see above. The most likely scenario is that the Astros convice Biggio once and for all to either a.) accept a diminished bench role... or b.) buy him out entirely. His early season surge has put a little more faith into the fact that this guy may have a few good years left... but, as we all know, its how his numbers are in August that will really determine his future. Of course, if he manages to keep this up somehow... this will solidify him for the HOF. 3.) Kent - This is the one wild-card of the bunch. I honestly don't think Burke is ready to be a major league hitter... in fact, I have more confidence in Adam Everett, or even a Willy Tavares, to be this clubs future leadoff hitter. Kent is still very solid... and I'm sure he's enjoyed the harmony and lack of media scrutiny from this Astros clubhouse. Thus, I do believe the Stros should make an effort to keep him around for another 2 years... 4.) Oswalt and Miller - The club already has plans to break the bank for one of these guys... question is, can they manage to keep both long term. Oswalt's groin recovery will likely make him the front-runner to be this club's ace for years to come... but if Miller is able to have a year without any major slumps, it would be wise to lock him up as well. Expect most of the remaining money to goto these two... and not to any improvements or big-name free agents in the lineup. Other things to consider... Dotel has (I believe) one more year of arbitration-eligibility before he must be signed to a huge deal. Thus, expect trade offers next year as the Stros groom Lidge and Harville. Redding is going to face a make-or-break situation later in this year if he can't get his season turned around. He's had some tough luck to start the year, and there's a pretty good chance he'll recover and better his 2003 numbers. Buckholz will get a shot for sure next year... if Clemens retires, he'll likely start. If Clemens sticks around, he'll fill out the bullpen/spot starter role. Same with Hernandez... although if he never regains his arm velocity, he might be better suited to relief pitching/situational lefty. But, there's a good chance that as he builds up his arm strength, his fastball will top 90 again and he'll be a starter. Overall, the ballclub is in great shape for pitching in the upcoming years (which is good, considering we play in a hitters park), but they're gonna be iffy on offense. Berkman, Lane, Everett and Ensberg are basically going to be the big bats that will be around for the long-term forseeable future. Hopefully, they can find at least one more stud in the minors (Tavares, Tommy Whiteman, John Buck, Hector Giminez) that could be a huge MLB batter.
I get the feeling from comments made by McLane and Hunsicker that there is one plan -- this year, and let the cards fall where they may. I suspect decisions will not be made until this season plays out, be that September, or into early November.
Hidalgo will get a contract very similar to what Magglio Ordonez signs for which will be anywhere from 10 –14 mil per…I would hate to think the Astros will lose him for nothing but that could be the case…Hopefully Lane will be ready to fill in…
My bet is that this is Wade Miller's last year with the Astros. Hernandez takes his spot next season. The other four starting pitchers will be back.
Why would the Astros get rid of him while he's still arbitration-eligible? They'll either lock him up to a 2-3 year deal, or go the arbitration rout (one year deals) like they have the last two years. Either way, they will be able to afford these guys at the current payroll, and the likes of Biggio, Hidalgo and Kent's big contracts coming off the books. Also, look for Bagwell to defer even more money so that it ensures that Oswalt and Miller will be Astros for a long time.
