Carmelo Anthony’s Value By Alex Prewitt and Howard Megdal HOWARD MEGDAL: Carmelo Anthony’s value to the Knicks is such that they should trade whomever it takes to get him, and give him a max contract, without thinking twice. As Alex details below, there are some limits to his game that aren’t present in LeBron’s or CP3′s. But to paraphrase Rick Pitino, “LeBron James isn’t walking through that door. Chris Paul isn’t walking through that door.” So the Knicks need to figure out how to get the best possible talent to complement Amar’e Stoudemire and the rest of this team. And secondary players are nice- but a player like Anthony is necessary for a team starved for frontline talent. And in the abstract, trading Danilo Gallinari or Anthony Randolph- rumor has it one or the other would need to be at the center of any deal- would seem like a lot to give up for an imminent free agent. But with Gallo profiling as a three- Carmelo’s spot- and Randolph at the four- where Stoudemire plays- both players wouldn’t figure into the Anthony/Stoudemire Knicks, or would play out of position. So Alex is right. Anthony isn’t quite a LeBron/CP3-level talent. That is why, I believe, Donnie Walsh tried to get those two first. But now, it is time for New York to go get Anthony. Only in such elite company would that feel like a disappointment. ALEX PREWITT: There’s no doubting Carmelo Anthony’s ability as a top-flight NBA player. Through seven seasons after leading Syracuse to the NCAA Championship, ‘Melo has never averaged under 20 points per game and has led the Nuggets to the playoffs in all seven years. But with rumors swirling regarding his imminent departure from the Rocky Mountains and Anthony’s pending free agency next summer, we can expect that some squad will throw a gaudy contract at ‘Melo to make him the cornerstone of the franchise. But does he belong in the elite level of players deserving of a max salary, or in the upper echelon of NBA studs along with fellow ’03 draftees LeBron James and Dwyane Wade? At face value, ‘Melo’s statistics suggest that he’s one of the top scorers in the league. He’s ranked in the top 10 in ppg over the past five seasons and his career field goal percentage is a respectable .459. The basic issue with per-game averages, though, is that they fail to convey efficiency, and thus overall value. Looking at the metrics reveals a player obsessed with shooting, a player whose scoring numbers have been overvalued and have overshadowed his inability to better those around him. Anthony’s value is astronomical right now, but he cannot do it alone (the Nuggets have been bounced from the playoffs in the first round in six of the past seven seasons). Sure, Carmelo’s a player who will consistently put up 20 points each night, but he also took the most shots per minute of any player in the entire league in ’09-10. He also missed the most shots out of anyone this past season, had his shot blocked the second-most times and even has a paltry offensive rating when compared to his teammates — sixth-best on the Nuggets, behind the likes Birdman, Nene, Billups, Ty Lawson and Afflalo. If you’re a fan of Player Efficiency Rating (PER), then try this one: ‘Melo ranked 13th in the league in PER last season, and that was a career-best. For some reason, ‘Melo is viewed as a top-five player in this league, even if the numbers simply do not back that up. Only once has he played more than six games in any given postseason — in 2008-09, when the Nuggets got by the seventh-seeded Hornets and the sixth-seeded Mavs in 10 total games — and his career field goal percentage in the playoffs is a lowly .424. And only once (this past season, when the Nuggets tanked in six to the Jazz) has Anthony had a better scoring postseason than a regular season. Simply put, ‘Melo hasn’t demonstrated the pedigree — or the durability, for that matter — necessary to justify giving him a max contract. Per-game statistics are overvalued in the age of advanced statistics, but a squad like the Knicks will still throw obscene amounts of cash at Anthony next summer, blindly ignoring the sheer volume of shots that ‘Melo hurls up on a nightly basis. Furthermore, Anthony hasn’t demonstrated the secondary attributes like rebounding or passing that other max players like LeBron or Chris Paul have in spades. Whichever team lands ‘Melo next summer will be getting a high-profile player with good box-score numbers. But they’ll also be receiving someone who will not make their team into a championship contender. http://perpetualpost.com/?p=7572
Some points I agree. I don't think Melo is in the class of Lebron, Wade, Kobe, Durant and Howard--I think the hands down 5 best players. (Paul could rejoin that group with a year like 08-09 instead of 09-10). That said, of course he is a Max salary player. He is better than players like Gasol and Joe Johnson and Bosh and Stoudamire and Pierce--who are reasonable max salary player. The difference is unlike say Lebron or Durant--he isn't a total steal at landing with a new max contract, because if it was an open market those guys would be worth double the max (or more). Anthony is certainly worth more than the average 12 million guy, or worth more than two of the average 7 million guys--in fact he is probably as good or better than half the guys at the max salary, even though a handful of those guys are worth far more than that and thus truncate the distribution. So anything less than the max would be an insulting and unrealistic offer to Melo.
Not many here want to hear any criticisms of the guy. They want their 'superstar' and they don't care who it is.
I posted the original article a week ago in a different thread: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=5522109&postcount=281 It definitely makes valid points. Carmelo isn't in the same class as Lebron, Kobe or Wade. He just doesn't do much to make his teammates better and he takes alot of shots. Ok, so does that mean that you don't trade for him? Well, that depends on how much you value the things that Carmelo does well. He'll definitely score the ball for you and he's very good in clutch situation at the end of games. Do the Rockets need those things? Sure they do. We've always had a problem of going through cold spells where we had trouble scoring and we just aren't very good in crunch time. So, yeah he definitely provides some things that we're missing. Of course until you know what it would cost to get him it's impossible to say if we should or shouldn't acquire him. If you can do it without giving up any of your starters then it's a no-brainer. If you only have to give up, say Brooks and some young guys and picks then you probably do it. Obviously if Denver's price tag is too high then you don't do the deal. Whether or not we should acquire Anthony (assuming we get the chance) shouldn't depend on whether or not he's a superstar, he's not. It should depend on if we can do a deal for a reasonable package.
As much as I want Melo to come to Houston. I've come to my senses, I think you are right... We've been desperate. Too willing to take any superstar that even mentions Houston... Bosh... Melo... Iggy... Hmm...
Every player has faults. If there's ever been a faultless player, I'd like to see him. Akeem was out of control and didn't trust his teammates. Clyde dribbled with his head down and was mediocre from 3. Barkley was a fatty who didn't play D. The question, like aelliot said, is whether or not we'd win more games with him or with the guys we'd be trading away. Seems like an unproven theory, since you post in every thread.
Agreed. I think those 5 or 6 are still a cut above people like Melo, Brandon Roy, Chris Bosh and all. There's a difference between an all star like Melo and a superstar franchise player like those 5/6. Dwight is there simply because of defense.
"Every player has faults. If there's ever been a faultless player, I'd like to see him." I agree with you, same with me here i want to see the faultless of the player so that we can told him about his faultless.
if we were to get carmelo, it would be strictly for scoring. we know the rest of his game isn't there. he doesn't play great d, and he definitely doesn't pass. but he is a bonafide scoring machine. he is one dimensional, but at scoring he is virtually unstoppable. alone carmelo cannot win, but with billups the nuggets got to the western conference finals last year. carmelo would just be the cornerstone of adelman's offense. morey and adelman would build a champion around carmelo. they know his deficiencies, but the way he plays, he can score for years to come. he is a small forward, most small forwards aren't great passers. carmelo alone cannot win, but with the right supporting cast, which the rockets would have there is no denying his scoring ability. we would be unstoppable
also at least he won a national title in college, so we know he isn't one of those guys that is just a natural born loser
No one on the NBA is a natural born loser, even with scrubs like Ryan Bowen or Luther Head or Steve Novak. You've got to show something to get in the league in the first place. And this article is spot on. I've thought about it a lot, and I'd only trade for Melo if we go all-in on him, i.e. trade KM as part of the package. The best way to utilize Melo is make him the volume scorer of the group and surround him with dead-eye spot up shooters. There's no way Martin and Melo will be able to co-exist, both of them need the ball a lot to be effective and we need to drop him 'cause we'll be paying Melo the max. Yao, Scola, Melol, Lee and Brooks sound like a championship starting 5 to me, esp. if we get to keep the Knicks picks, Patterson, Miller, Lowry and Battier as depth.
disagree. there are guys that for how good they are couldn't really win at any level. they obviously had individual success. but there are guys that had no team success all the way through
I don't understand the knock against Carmelo's rebounding in the article. Carmelo's career rebounding(6.1) per 36 min is nearly identical to Lebron(6.3). It's 0.2 rebounds higher than Paul Pierce(5.9) and Kevin Durant(5.9).
the way carmelo plays, i think he can go on for a long time. we don't need him to do anything but put the ball in the hole. leave the rest of the winning up to brooks, scola, lowry, battier and the rest of the winners on the team. clutch city is back. i'm serious, we are back. as a 25 year old who was 9 and 10 when we won titles, i can honestly say for a long time we became the least clutch team in the league. it was like all the clutchness was used up in those 2 title runs. we could never catch a break. and then the van gundy era was just dark and gloomy. losing games 70-65 and having the worst offense in nba history were bad times. mcgrady era was an all around shame. but these guys we have right now are young winners. you put carmelo with losers and he won't do ****. but you put him with these rockets and he will go down as a winner. morey and adelman are the ****. it feels great to root for a time that is being managed so properly. no more botched drafts. i still remember being a little kid and screaming about us not drafting rashard lewis. we drafted bryce drew, eric dickerson, and mirsad turkan over him. wow, those were bad times when a 12 year old was calling out the organizations draft blunders. but if we don't win a title or at least make the finals in the next 5 or 6 years i would be very surprised. the future is bright
if we get carmelo, adelman will turn us into a consistent power. all he needs is a solid offensive player to go through on the wing. while he plays different than these guys, he can still score every bit as good as drexler and webber could. while drexler was way way better than carmelo, carmelo can score just as well. webber and carmelo are totally different players, but equal caliber players. adelman took the blazers with drexler to 2 finals where he lost to phil jackson and jordan both times in 6 games. he then took the kings to the western conference finals with chris webber where they controversially lost game 7 to phil jackson and kobe. so far we are the only team from the west to take the lakers to a 7th game in the last 3 years. and that was with no yao, no mutumbo, no size, about 7 players and artest shooting 4-25 every game. this year the lakers will 3 pete because that is all that phil jackson does, seeing as how he has done it 3 other times. so we need to figure out a way to reign in the upcoming 4 or 5 years. once philly boy retires, adelman and the rockets can rule the west. think about it, nobody else in the west in the lakers first 3 pete or now have taken the lakers to 7 games other than adelman. after this upcoming year, the west is open for grabs and we are in the perfect position to set up shop. while the 2000's were a clear cut failure, the 2010's are ours. duncan has maybe 2 years left, the mavs are old, nash is old, utah will never win it. the lakers will be around for a while to compete and will probably win another title even after the 3 pete. but the thunder and blazers are the only other young teams in the west that are up and coming. so basically we had one down decade where we constantly underachieved( i am so glad that crap is over). i am amazed at how young and deep morey has made our team in the last 3 years out of nothing. the only players left from the 07-08 rockets is yao, scola, battier, hayes, and brooks( who was a rookie). we have somehow added kevin martin, kyle lowry, courtney lee, chase buddinger, brad miller, jordan hill, patrick patterson and the knicks future draft picks, and tons of cash and space. how the hell did he do that since 2008. no other gm in the league could have ever rebounded from mcgrady's salary debacle and yao's constantly being hurt that fast. this guy knows how to draft and he values players better than anyone. if he can work out a trade for carmelo, than we can definitely win around him. if morey had been around 5 years ago and put young talent around mcgrady and yao we could have possibly won a title in 2005. morey is so sly it is scary. and this is coming from a guy that spent my whole life talking **** about rudy t's offense, carol dawson's draft picks, van gundy's pathetic offense and gathering of 98 knicks players, but i have yet to find anything wrong with morey's moves. i am always picking apart different decisions coaches and gm's make and calling them dumb. but one thing is for sure, morey knows what he is doing, and if he is able to trade for carmelo, we will be instantly the 2nd best team in the west, and the team of the future in our conference
