I finally got to see this kid Stoudamire in action, and let me tell you, he's gonna be a stud in the NBA. I totally agree that he's far from ready from contributing on any regular basis in the league, but in 2 or 3 years he should be dominant. I didn't even see his game action. All I saw was the high school slam dunk contest, however, that left me convinced that this guy is the real deal, and that, given the chance, the Rockets should really consider this guy as part of their future. He is a sick, sick athlete, as witnessed by the dunk competition. He's 6'10" about, what, 240? He's got incredible size, I mean he was the biggest man in the slam off and, if it hadn't been for a show-off dunk, where he jumped from the free throw line to dunk, he would have walked away as dunk champ. Instead he got second place. Let me tell you that all of his attempts were absolutely amazing, though. He did this one from the baseline where he ran under the goal, jumped, switched the ball through his legs (in mid flight) and reverse jammed it. It was incredible. He got a perfect 10 from all of the judges. He's got a flare for the audience and likes to impress them, and he's got great confidence in his abilities, w/o seeming egotistic, something a young 18 yr old player needs. He can also jump out of the arena, almost with the smaller Vinces and Kobes, and he's 6'10", and has a long wingspan. Like I mentioned, it might take a few years for Amare to develop any kind of slick offensive and defensive games, however, with this type of size/ strength/ and athleticism, the Rocks should consider drafting him to their squad. Who knows, at 18 years old and already 6'10", maybe he'll grow 2 more inches, and put on 20 or 30 lbs; he definitely has the frame to do it. Do you think he'd be a nice pick at the #5 slot?
In a word, yes! Other #5 picks that I would not be upset with would be Wilcox or Butler. The #5 Picks I would be upset with would be Gooden or Marcus.
How can you possibly tell if a player is the real deal based on a slam dunk competition? Here is a list of useful skills in the NBA that are not showcased at ALL in slam dunk competitions: Dribbling Shooting (range and consistency) Rebounding Passing Defense Overall awareness of the game and role Now, here is a list of skills in the NBA that are nice to have, but don't necessarily equate to success: Dunking Get my meaning?
Raven Lunatic listed these factorsas being key for success in the NBA: Dribbling, Shooting (range and consistency), Rebounding, Passing, Defense, and Overall awareness of the game and role. From having followed Stoudemire ever since he made it to Florida, I can say that he is lacking several of those skills. In terms of dribbling - he's fine, but for a big man this is less important. The key is to whether he is pounding the ball in the post or dribbling and giving the other team opportunities to stop him, and he is doing a good job at just getting it done. In terms of shooting - he's another Bo Outlaw. He has no consistancy on his jumper and his range extends to 10ft at the most. He has a long way to come on developing the jump shot - and with his theory of being able to dunk over anyone, I'm not certain he gets it yet. Rebounding - he's pretty good here. Not one of the best, but he gets the rebound. Decent position, though he can get a rebound over most anyone on the high school level. Whether he can do that in the pros remains to be seen....but he'll have a decent shot. Passing - nonexistant. He gets the ball and it doesn't come back out. He has a long way to go to work on this aspect of his game, and may try in an attempt to impress scouts, but for now he's another black hole. In the open court, you don't want your bigman handling the ball, unless his name is Kevin Garnett or Tim Duncan. Amare is not like those two. Defense - oweing to the fact that he was taller and stronger than anyone on the high school level, he played fair defense. He was easily flustered, however, and during his early season swoon, opponents could beat him. His team only finished near .500 for the season and his struggles were a large part of that. Overall awareness of the game - he's a competitor, that much is certain. But does he have the basktball smarts yet? No. In other words - if you take him, you've got another project on your hands. With EG to develop and more pressing needs for a SF or C, it makes little sense to draft another PF, especially considering who the Rockets have there. In other words - just say no to Stoudemire.
mfclark Thanks for the great summary. It's refreshing to get some personal and objective observations instead of unfounded boasts.
Good summary, but I think you left out one of Stoudamire's most impressive qualities. His ability to run the court. I saw him in the McDonald's All-Star game and a high school All-Star game in DC, and he runs the court like a bull. I'm almost to the point where I just want the Rockets to draft the best big man available. I don't care if he's labeled as a PF or C. The line that divides those two positions barely exists anymore. The only way you can tell the difference is because the center sucks and power forward doesn't. There's are no true centers in the draft the Rockets should take over Stoudamire with the 5th pick, so if you're only looking to draft a true center I think the Rockets should probably jusy worry about that another year and draft a small forward. Don't waste a top five pick on someone like Marcus or Borchardt.
Rockets seem to stay away from young guys. If Amare is like Garnett or Chandler than he may be a good selection. But HS big men (centers and PFs) develop a bit slower or fail to make the jump since they relied on their size advantage rather than ball handling, jump shot, etc.
He can get out in the open court, that's for sure. He'll be there to finish the play. But - you don't want him being the one to bring it up the court; that aspect of his game is nowhere near ready. For most teams, the difference between PF and C is very little. But, most teams with a true center are the ones near the top of their conference. If you have the chance to get a top center at the top of the draft, you have to jump on it...Ming yes, others probably not. However - with the depth you have at PF on the Rockets, it is much easier to take a star SF to fill that "hole" in the draft and worry about center later than to reach for a PF or C and leave that hole at SF wide open. Too many teams have quick, athletic stars at SF to leave that position to be manned by a slower, jump shooting forward, no matter the system Rudy runs. Unless the Rockets and EG himself think he will play 3 for the rest of his career, that's where I think they need to look and worry about center either through trade or a later draft.
The exceptions are notable. Both Francis and Griffin only finished one year of division one college ball. More to the point, Rudy and CD knew that Griffin would take 2-3 seasons before he became an everyday starter, but they drafted him anyway.
The question for me boils down to the Rocks taking a great-now 3 versus a great-later 5 with their fifth pick. The only problem that I have with picking a 3 is that good-now 3s are usually available with a mid to late first round pick. The Rocks should have that type of pick next year with their own or potentially Toronto's pick. Good-now 5s are usually taken with the first five picks. Unfortunately this year's draft appears not to have any good-now 5s. We may disagree about the current status of the club. I think the Rocks would have made the playoffs this year, standing pat, if it had not been for injuries. The basic reasoing is that Steve, Cat, and MoTay were a year older and still getting better, inidividually and as a team. Going into next year, one could use the same reasoning with exception that MoTay is coming back from a tough injury (but KT emergence mitigates that). The Rocks, thus, do not have to have an instant impact player from the draft to be successful next year and get some playoff experience. Given that they have a top pick, this may be the year that the Rocks take a chance on a project player with a great upside. Without injuries, I think the two areas that the Rocks should address with the draft are defense (including defensive rebounding) and low post offense (so that they rely less on outside shooting to win games). Generally with a high pick, teams usually look to grab a player who will be a first tier starter (top third in the league) and who could make all star teams some years. Teams also don't draft players who will compete for PT with their best palyers. Houston's best player's are arguably Francis, Griffin, and maybe Mobley. Projecting out three years, these three players should be the first three options on offense. Given where the best players play, the Rocks should look into drafting a 3 or 5. Thus, this is why I am saying that the choice boils down to a great-now 3 or a great-later 5. Woods and Bulter should be great-now 3s and Stoudamire appears to be the only great-later 5. By the fifth pick, the Rocks may only have one of these players to choose from. You mentioned that Soudamire would enter the league playing the 4. I disagree. I think that by the time he reaches his prime he will be a 5 or a 4/5. Looking at the Rock depth chart at 5 with Cato's minutes per game average, I can see Stoudamire seeing 5 minutes right away, probably taking Griffin's 5 minutes away. Until Stoudamire develop his offensive game, he will likely only be Cato's backup. Offensively he will not contribute much for several years, but this team does not need his offense as much as it needs his defense and defensive rebounding, which should be NBA ready quicker. Seeing that in the long term Stoudamire would give this team a low post offensive threat, good low post defense, and defensive rebounding, he would be a good fit for the team in the future. If he does reach his potential, the Rocks will have a elite center, that is usually only gotten with the first pick of the draft.
Stoudemire could[/B[ play the 5, but he is nowhere near ready for it mentally or physically. If - and that's a big if - he fills out and gains a good deal of strength, he could potentially play a combo 4/5, but I don't see him as any more able to play center than Shawn Kemp ever was. With Cato able to man the middle against the majority of centers out there - all except the elite - and the potential to get a star at the 3 early in the draft, unless the Rockets can get Ming, I'd rather take a 3 to tutor under Rice for a season and then take over. While good 3s may be had later in the draft, great ones usually come from the top of the draft or take years to develop. Personally, I think the Rockets - with health and consistancy - can make some noise in the west soon with a 3 in the draft. Taking a 5 (unless with Toronto's pick) will involve a steeper learning curve (especially for Stoudemire, who probably wouldn't blossom until his 3rd season, and with Griffin around the Rockets have enough waiting to do) with a higher chance to bust entirely on the pick. Plus, many good centers can be had later in the draft - and good ones via trade.
