2015 cap question

I'm sure I heard it here first but I'm hoping that the Rockets renounce Parsons next summer so he becomes a RFA. This will guarantee us the opportunity to retain him long-term.

Lin and Asik are not in the plans long-term. That's basically a given.

 

It's interesting because in 2015 the entire roster outside of Harden and Howard are expiring. It seems to me that you would need to make your moves of Lin and Asik for your big 3 before you extend Parsons. That way you can go over the cap.

 

The Rockets will either make him a Restricted free agent after next year(allowing them to match any offer), or allow him to finish up his current contract, and have him become an unrestricted free agent where he can go wherever he wants to.

Either way, the Rockets can go as far over the cap as they need to in order to re-sign Parsons if they so please, and Parsons wants to accept the Rockets offer if they allow him to be an unrestricted free agent when his contract is up since they own his Larry Bird Rights.

So Parsons isn't going anywhere despite the Rockets cap situation which looks Very good right now for a contending team. There aren't too many contending teams in the league with 2 star players locked up for 4 to 5 more years in their prime with this much cap flexibility.

 

I would think that this February will be a hot-bed trade market for teams looking to tank in a historically deep draft. I dont think it will take 2 & 1/2 years to get a trade done for another star.

Look at the assets the Rockets have now and what they had before they traded for Harden... I would argue that having Asik as a major asset to trade, and all of their draft picks to offer the Rockets actually might have better trade assets than they had back then.

I think Morey is going to be on a mission from now until February to set themselves up for a trade to bring in that 3rd all-star player they need to be the favorites in the west.

 

I actually don't think Rockets will make Parsons a RFA. It sets us up to potentially get screwed a la Boozer and Cavs style. That'd worry me w/ a player as hot as Parsons.

 

"Typically" front offices prefer RFA as a negotiation tactic by telling the world that they will match any offer so dont even bother.... It worked with the Rockets getting Lowry back on a great deal, but didn't work out so well with the Knicks and Bulls with Asik & Lin.

I personally think they will opt to make him a RFA if they have already made a major move to bring in that 3rd piece to ensure they lock him up long term, and not risk losing him in UFA.

 

Sure, but I assume we don't want to just simply OVERPAY him either, right? Because we could offer a HECK of a lot more than we will. My fear was discussed here:

"4. Letting Parsons hit restricted free agency is risky but may be how team does right by him.
The renegotiation-and-extension route assumes that the Rockets do, in fact, pick up their team option on Parsons. However, if the Rockets (1) didn’t have the requisite cap room available to accomplish a renegotiate-and-extend deal, (2) felt that they could potentially lock up Parsons longer-term at a more reasonable cost through restricted free agency than if he hits unrestricted free agency in 2015 and/or (3) feared that Parsons would hold a grudge against the team if it kept him on his dirt-cheap deal for a fourth season, then they might opt to decline Parsons’s team option and allow him to hit restricted free agency in 2014.

Because Parsons would have been under the same contract with the Rockets for three seasons (2011-2014), the Rockets would have full Bird rights on Parsons and could exceed the salary cap to re-sign him to a five-year deal at any amount (up to a “James Harden-level” max contract). Presumably, this option would only be explored if the team had already used up most of its cap space to add a second star player or other significant pieces.

Making Parsons a restricted free agent would likely be a huge show of good faith on the Rockets’ part, but it would not be without great risk. Many of us remember what happened to the Cleveland Cavaliers back in 2004. The Cavs decided to do Carlos Boozer a solid and decline their cheap team option in order to make Boozer a restricted free agent, looking to lock him up long-term. Unfortunately, once Boozer became a free agent, the Utah Jazz swooped in with a huge contract offer. Boozer bolted Cleveland for greener pastures, and the Cavs were left holding the bag.

Also, from a pure numbers standpoint, it is unlikely that the Rockets could save enough money over the course of a new deal with Parsons signed in 2014 — either with Houston or in an offer sheet with another team — versus one he signs as an unrestricted free agent in 2015 to justify foregoing the opportunity to keep Parsons at his currently-scheduled $964,750 salary for 2014-15. Remember, if the Rockets decline their team option, Parsons would still pocket $624,771 from Houston (which would count against the cap) on top of whatever he could get in free agency.

However, if the Rockets are confident that Parsons would work with them on a reasonable long-term deal without bolting as a free agent, their show of good faith may be reciprocated, to everyone’s advantage."

http://rockets.clutchfans.net/3681/chandler-parsons-contract-take-two/

 

If Morey doesn't make a trade for another star before Parson's option comes up, I expect we'll see Parsons play out the remainder of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent. The Rockets should have plenty of cap space in 2015 - enough to offer a max contract - with LMA and Love as free agents and will be able to go over the cap to resign Parsons.

Unless Parsons blows up and becomes a near max contract player this coming season in which case there's no way Morey will allow Parsons on the market.

 

Well and even that strategy has another issue because if pretty much this same team makes it to 2014 offseason then you know the Rockets are going to want/need to add some piece in that offseason on a contract longer than a year and for a price at least equal to the NTMLE and that would likely mean no 3rd star when you also factor in built in contract raises for Harden and Howard.

 

Why....don't we take life one step at a time ;P

We hardly know what's happening THIS season. haha.

Either way, I think Morey will make all the right choices.

I've trusted every of his big moves, Lin, Asik, Harden, Dwight and all his "small moves" in Parsons and Beverly.