A good lease can compete, but you don't get a $7000 check at the end of a lease. Also, most leases only cover 15k per year so a direct comparison would be 5.3 years = $315 per month.
Leasing hasn't traditionally been cost effective for me because I've been a high mileage driver (averaging 30,000 miles per year.... except with my most recent car). My thought was that the comparison was between a guy buying a new one and driving it to 90,000 miles vs. a guy buying a pre-owned one and driving it to 90,000 miles. Of course, then the calculation should include the price of the extended warranty for the new buyer, too, which I didn't include. Personally, I don't have good luck with used cars. I have trouble finding one that matches what I'm looking for (I know when I was looking at my Mazda 6, the available used ones were more expensive than the new one I ended up buying due to rebates, kind of a glut at the dealership at the end of the model year, and the used ones having expensive options that I didn't even want).
