Obviously, a lot of factors have played into making this 2020 season what it is. Myself, like some of you, like to look at what the biggest factor is. If I had to say what failure had the most to do with things, let me take you through my thinking. 1) The first thing that jumps out to me is the home/road disparity. 20-8 at home, 9-20 on the road (as of this writing). 2) So I then went to look at offense and pitching splits. Offense: .723 home OPS, Road: .720 OPS https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/splits/_/name/hou/houston-astros 3) The offensive numbers are almost equal, so what about pitching? Home: 3.11 ERA Road: 5.49 ERA https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/splits/_/type/pitching/name/hou 4) OK, it seems pretty clear that pitching on the road was one of, if not the most influential factor for the Home/Road splits. Now lets see which pitchers contributed most to this. ERA.................................Home.Road Zack Greinke SP.............3.86....4.28 Lance McCullers Jr. SP...1.42....8.84 Framber Valdez SP.........3.52....3.60 Cristian Javier RP............2.17....4.97 Jose Urquidy SP..............2.70....3.00 Brandon Bielak RP..........4.20....7.80 Ryan Pressly RP.............1.98....7.11 Blake Taylor SP...............2.08....2.70 Andre Scrubb RP............0.87....1.46 Cy Sneed RP..................1.93....11.57 Josh James RP...............6.75....7.88 Enoli Paredes SP............1.93....3.27 Brooks Raley RP *..........2.16....5.87 As you can see, it wasn't just the rookies, half the staff was significantly worse on the road. Yea I know, this is a oversimplification of their performance. Other things play into it as well. But its a meaningful sample IMO. What worries me is that these numbers took place in empty stadiums. What will things look like when the stands are full, the boos and heckling are so loud you cant hear anything, stuff is thrown on field, and so on....? Anyway, this was my line of thinking. What is yours?
Road pitching... exacerbated by inexperience early, and Lance being a WTF inconsistent pitcher off TJ (not uncommon)... but all of which would likely improve/even out over a full season. Rookies are going to struggle at this level initially more often than not, regardless of fans. I actually feel this whole exercise (along with what's been going on in other sports) basically showcases how little effect fans/cheering may have on these players or on these games. Their bullpen has actually been quite good, ranked #1 in the AL, over the last few weeks.
The answer is injuries/opt outs. Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and the closer all done for the year. Plus the guy that was supposed to be the 3rd best reliever in the pen opting out in Joe Smith. Add Osuna and Smith to this bullpen and I think we win the division. Astros lost 6 extra inning games. Osuna solves a lot of that.
No spring training affected Altuve and Gurriel. Alvarez got hurt. Bregman had an injury in a shortened season. That is why the offense is nowhere near as good as 2016-2019. Cole and Harris gone, Verlander, Urquidy, and Osuna hurt. That’s why the pitching hasn’t been up to snuff. Having Greinke excel and having Valdez breakout helped offset a bit but there was no way they weren’t going to have a drop off without Verlander and Cole. This roster (as it projects next season) is 2 superstar players (one ace pitcher, one CF) away from forecasting to win at the same level as 2016-2019.
1) People getting overly worked up on small sample sizes like a 60-game season. 2) Injuries 3) Injuries
It's actually impressive that they are a game over .500 with all the injuries to key players. Someone posted that the Astros were around .500 in a 60 game stretch in 2017 during a period of lots of injuries. Just need to get hot for a few weeks in October...
If Joe Smith comes back they have 75 million coming off the books. If he doesn't they have 79 million to spend. The only guys in arbitration are Correa, Diaz, and McCullers. Considering they were not very good this season I don't expect their raises to surpass 5 million in added payroll. Gurriel has also tanked his value. He might be signed to a 1 year deal for 6-8 million. I'm assuming Devenski and Biagini are gone, and hoping Garneau is as well. Even if Crane cuts back on the payroll they money to fill the holes.
At this point let's bring back the buzzers and trashcans breh. We'll hit better . Not sure it'll help our bullpen though.
No Gerritt Cole or Verlander pitching every 5 days is a big loss. Losing two 20-game winners is like losing guaranteed wins for a quarter of your season every time one of them steps on the mound. Two aces like that can mask a lot of deficiencies elsewhere and is the most likely difference between contention and mediocrity. Closer less than dependable. Regression in hitting from several of our stars. Injury bug. And you have to question what effect the sign sealing scandal and abbreviated seasonhad on the heart and camaraderie of the team. One also wonders about effect of no Hinch and no Luhnow. As Crash Davis once said, “We’re dealing with a lot of ****.”
The offense, even without Yordan, should have been extremely good. It hasn't been. Bregs is starting to come around, but Correa, Altuve, and Yuli have been complete garbage. The pitching staff losing an absurd amount had every excuse to be terrible, but it hasn't been for the most part. It's been above average overall despite being a glorified daycare.
I'll echo much that has been said already: Losing Verlander even more than Cole. He is the only surefire HOFer on the roster and I think his presence was missed almost as much as his arm The scandal is clearly affecting the position players who were here in 2017. Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Gurriel and Springer are all clearly not themselves at the plate Injuries, injuries, injuries There is a cloud over this team that can only be lifted by a 2020 World Series banner. A rematch and wins against the Yankees and Dodgers would be the dream scenario. Of course that title would be disparaged (short season, expanded playoffs, etc) but it would be sour grapes as opposed to speculative or confirmed "cheating"
Outside of pitching, which we knew would regress without Cole and (unfortunately) Verlander, the biggest dissapointment has been the overall offensive funk. The Chronicle had an interesting piece this morning: They also talk about the inability to make in-game adjustments between ABs due to less video access. Guys like J.D. Martinez swear by it, and it looks like, based on the article, Correa (and the batting coaches) are used to using it as well. Could be a reason for the first inning success as they go up with a plan and then struggle to adjust once the pitcher makes an adjustment? Bregman has been a notoriously slow starter, Yuli was last year as well. Hoping a couple of days off before the playoffs gives them time to refresh, clear their minds, and go over some more film on their ABs. If they play the A's, they should look for tendencies on how the A's alter their approach in-game with their pitch selection. Maybe the guys could start mapping out their counters with more focused preparation. This obviously goes out the window, to a large extent, if they play the AL Central. The other big factor, IMO, it'd be great if they get to the ALDS and can have their families in the bubble. I can't help but think some of the home/road disparity is due to the isolation grind. If they can't be together on the road, at least they can be with family and not be away from them for long stretches like they were with the road trips this year.
Even with all of the listed reasons for current mediocrity, I don’t think this is a .500 team over 162. 90-95 wins. I’ll assume Altuve and Correa start hitting their weight.
The one fact I would say is just injurys. I would seriously look into letting the OF go on there way and try and rebuild with Tucker. And McCullers needs a reality check. Jesus H. He is a BullPen guy at best or a trade commodity. Thats just it. We are with out Verlander and need to think about Grienke. Does he wanna stay or is he destine to go.? Thats the biggest thing from here forward. If he wants to go find a good trade piece for him. Preferably a OF. And go forward.
A part of a deal for an above average/fringe all-star type 1B/OF or closer. Bielak is the type of prospect you deal with the emergence of Urquidy, Valdez, Javier, Paredes, etc who’ve been more impressive.
