@saitou, what's ur take on this article, https://investorplace.com/2020/09/with-amd-stock-facing-new-threats-avoid-its-stock/, that calls for selling AMD my 2 cents i think this is just a piecemeal look at AMD, it is not talking about the PC/notebook market, one in which AMD has been, and will continue to be, gaining market share
I don't think the article addressed important factors - AMDs new GPUs that are coming are rumored to be decent and should hopefully offer some competition w/ Nvidia. Also, AMD still has the CPU lead against Intel. Intel still won't have PCIE 4.0 on their platform. Intel also took another hit with Apple eventually removing them - and while the article didn't mention it I think will still hurt perception. So I feel Nvidia and AMD gaining more out of this and Intel still having more to lose here. I think if anything this article has some important reminders regarding Nvidia's ARM acquisition w/ their already powerful GPUs and AI research. I mean being involved with development/licenses for ARM should continue to payoff. Tl;Dr I think Intel is still danger of losing more, and AMD as long as something crazy doesn't happen - like new video game consoles have major recall issue over amd chip/flop gpu presentation then they should still gain nicely in tech for now, especially if strong rumors on gpu before presentation. Regardless though, Nvidia is still moving up.
1. There are legitimate long term threats to the CPU biz from ARM as well as Intel, but this has always been the case. Fact is that AMD are supply constrained at the moment - they are selling out every 7nm chip they can produce. There have been complaints about the lack of availability of AMD notebooks. The new Zen 3 CPU line launching on 8 Oct will extend their tech lead. It isn't just a matter of TSMC's process node either, AMD's chiplet design since Zen 1 has dramatically improved yields and driven down costs, and Intel and Nvidia are both reported to be trying to use the same chiplet design in future. Zen 3 will be on an enhanced 7nm node which will improve clock speeds, but expectations are for 15-20% IPC increase which is due to improved design and independent of node improvements. Better single core performance will help further break into enterprise market segments that deal with per core software licensing. 2. AMD has always been the distant no. 2 in both CPU and GPU sales. GPU and notebooks are lower margin. Highest margin items are EPYC server CPUs, threadripper HEDT, followed by ryzen desktop CPUs (which all share the same chiplets, and allows AMD flexibility to bin them into different segments). While they are supply constrained, it makes sense to concentrate volume on high margin parts. 3. Wafer supply will increase. Based on taiwan reports, this is my understanding of supply situation: 1H20 was at 22k wafers per month. 3Q20 was 30k. Due to Huawei ban kicking in on 14 Sep and Huawei ban also affecting Mediatek who released capacity at tsmc, wafer supply is expected to increase to 50k per month by December. 4. Short term, if they execute as they have been doing the last few years, an earnings meet for Q3 and very good guidance for Q4 is very likely. The one worry I have is yields for PS5. Some reports saying yield is only at 58%, which will eat up more wafers to meet the contract with Sony. For positive surprises, I know chromebooks have been flying off the shelf, and AMD supplies chromebooks with 12/14nm CPUs which are not supply constrained. I'm not sure of the breakdown between intel and amd for chromebooks though. 5. I will re-evaluate my position after Q3 ER. TSMC is definitely a safer play I think, but at least in the short term I'm still quite bullish on AMD. edit: I will also add that it is hard to make predictions about future tech superiority based on today's performance. The technologies powering next gen chips are already being researched and worked on in labs, but we don't have sight of them. For example, AMD filed patents for some of the underlying technologies enabling AMD's chiplet approach back in 2012 back when they were struggling. Also I think the market is so big, all 3 can continue to make lots of $.
Assuming everything goes smoothly for Nvidia/ARM, do you think Nvidia will stick to remaining neutral with the licensing or do you think they'll use it to go into cpu/server market? Obviously I know it's more of an opinion type answer but I think this ARM deal could give Nvidia a lot of leverage they didn't have previously with CPUs. Anyway, really good details on AMD, I think you're right, especially on TSMC and also being bullish at least in short term for AMD, and absolutely agree with you on other points about predicting things/money to be made. I also didn't hear about the rumored yield on PS5.
Yeah, they're definitely better than me. I do work in the tech industry and will read up on technology to stay fresh, and can work on/repair just about anything electrical/mechanical but by no means keep up with yield rate/design/roadmaps like they've shared on the thread.
With the exception of Apple, the rest of the arm chip companies have been relying heavily on arm's reference designs, despite efforts to differentiate themselves from the pack with their own customization. i think ARM under nvidia will continue licensing, but their top engineers will end up in Nvidia, and nvidia will end up with first access to the best designs. While arm looks like the future, it's not a given either. In 2016, even AMD launched an arm-based server chip, but realised demand for x86 server chips was much greater. The most recent to give up on an arm-based server chip was marvell. Amazon has their own graviton chips, but they still buy lots of xeons and epycs.
Speak of the devil lol: AMD Launches First “Zen”-based Chromebook mobile processors for faster web browsing, improved office productivity and better multitasking Acer, ASUS, HP and Lenovo are set to introduce broad range of entry-level to premium systems, bringing the award-winning “Zen” architecture to the Chromebook market SANTA CLARA, Calif. 09/22/2020 https://www.amd.com/en/press-releas...d-chromebook-mobile-processors-for-faster-web
from yesterday momentum indicator, the fast MACD line has crossed over the slow one. lagging trend reversal indicator, SAR has confirmed a trend reversal 20dma appears to be bouncing off the 50 dma
Somehow I had a call on Twitter. No clue why. I suppose I was bored and it seemed like it dipped. Sold it today fasho.
it's executing its strategy well. digital, direct-to-customer, business up 85%, following a qtr during which it had increased ~79%. NKE running apps have more downloads than Peloton apps. China business has been on an upswing the last 2 Qtr i used to play NKE for ERS runs, the trade war w China put an end to that. to be re-visited
Yup, the claims and aspirations out of battery day were impressive, but nothing from it is hitting the bottom or top line for 18 months, maybe even 3 years. A good road map for long term growth but short term it is definitely sell on the news. Support at $350, then $300.
bought a calendar call spread, on the belief that CRWD will be > 170 after the Presidential election, and way before its 3 Dec 2020 ERS bto Jan 2021 170 strike call sto Oct 2020 170 strike call
Any of you own SPI? At one point that thing was up over 3000% today. Of course what set it off was that they were going to start an electric vehicle subsidiary. Today's trading range was something $3 to $46. LOL. It fell off towards the end but it's going up again in the aftermarket. People are like piranhas when it comes to some buzz words.
Sadly, I had to confirm my interest by 8am and I logged in too late this morning. But GoodRx has saved me a lot of money on medications, so silver linings... I'll revisit like I do other IPOs - post lock up...
