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Realistic best and worst case scenarios from now until the start of the 2010 season

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by glimmertwins, Jul 17, 2009.

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  1. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

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    ....so it's that time of year for speculation and while we all hope the Rockets win a championship every year, let's get serious and talk about some realistic best and worst case scenarios for the team between now and the start of the 2010 season.

    I think it's pretty apparent at this point that Morey is working on his strategy for coping with what looks to be a "star" less season next year. The question is - what do you guys think a realistic successful season will be and realistically how could it all backfire. I want to include next year's off season in those projections as obviously that's a significant piece to this year's moves with Tmac's expiring, a shrinking salary cap in 2010, a ton of young free agents on the market, and the potentially huge implications from a renegotiation of the current collective bargaining agreement around that time.

    So what do you all think? Remember put some thought into it and keep it realistic.
     
    #1 glimmertwins, Jul 17, 2009
  2. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

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    ...my opinion is our best case scenario this year is:
    As a team: maybe 30-35 wins, no all stars, and a lottery pick in the 9-13 range.

    Individual players: Hopefully Ariza turns into Battier 2.0 with a little more offense. Brooks becomes a little more consistent - maybe averages 15 a game with a couple of 3s. Scola and Landry continue at the current production level, our new center Anderson manages to be a 12/9 guy, Buddinger gets some decent minutes and is efficient off the bench embracing being a role player, and Lowery gets a consistent jump shot(and isn't afraid to shoot it) to go along with his impressive defense. I doubt we move Tmac and he gets some garbage play at the end of the season and maybe even has a few good games left in him to make us somewhat entertaining to watch. As a team we still play decent team defense but now with a much more entertaining up tempo flow - lots of cutting.

    Roster changes: In this scenario, I'm thinking Battier and Tmac don't start 2010 with the Rockets. I have a feeling Battier will be moved before the trade deadline this year - this might be the trade Morey keep talking about. I can't see Battier having a long term future in Houston with Ariza and I think they use Battier and someone else(maybe Landry) to get a scoring 2 guard. I also think Houston picks up Bosh in that best case scenario next year and goes into 2010 with Yao, Bosh, and some sort of scoring 2(a Arenas/Joe Johnson quality player) unless they can somehow manage to get a hold of Chris Paul (remote chance but that team makes weird personnel decisions so maybe). Houston probably trades that lotto pick for a 2nd rounder and some rotation depth.

    ...our worst case scenario becomes:
    Team: Tmac comes back with the motivation to get a new contract and wins us a few meaningless games making us a late lottery pick or worse yet 8th seed team who gets swept in the first round(ironically, this is also the worst case scenario for Tracy's career - another first round loss). We win 45-50 games all against weaker teams and worst of all we win because of Tracy going one on five against bad defensive teams(horrible to watch)

    Individual Players: Brooks regresses - marked by bad shots and not passing the ball well. Ariza's outside shooting plummets and he shoots less than 30% from the 3 line while his intensity drops on the defensive side of the ball. Lowery continues to shoot poorly. Buddinger becomes too passive and gets bullied constantly when he is in the game. Landry hurts that balky knee. Battier starts to slow to the point that teams don't see his defense as a value worth acquiring in a trade. Tmac, does well enough to screw our lotto chances as above. Yao comes back too early only to hurt himself for another year. Our Aussie Center plays well offensively, but gets destroyed defensively and can't stop any opposing centers.

    Roster changes: Yao out another partial year in 2010, Tmac gone, we don't land one of the big names from the 2010 class and instead overpay with a max contract on a 2nd class star like Rudy Gay. Our 2010 pick doesn't work out and we are a 25-30 win team for the next several years with a bunch of players who other teams just aren't that interested in including a shell of Yao's former self.
     
    #2 glimmertwins, Jul 17, 2009
  3. Canadiandude

    Canadiandude Member

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    Best case: Lose a bunch of games and win the lottery.

    Worst case: Lose a bunch of games and lose the lottery.
     
    #3 Canadiandude, Jul 17, 2009
  4. TheGreat

    TheGreat Member

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    Best case: McGrady comes back early at the beginning of the season, he's actually healthy and his knee isn't bothering him. He puts up REALLY good numbers and leads us to the playoffs.

    We lose in the first round.
     
    #4 TheGreat, Jul 17, 2009
  5. Egghead

    Egghead Member

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    This.
     
    #5 Egghead, Jul 17, 2009
  6. Yetti

    Yetti Contributing Member

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    BEST Case ...................
    a) Wafer stays calm and signs with the Rockets.
    b) McGrady recovers from his surgery and regains about 80% of his old abilities.Comes back into full action by October.
    c) Team is the dark horse and plays remarkably well, considering everything!
    d)March the Doctors clear Yao Ming to start training again and early ino April, Yao takes to the court again.
    e) we make the playoffs as the fourth seed in the West with 51 wins and go onto take the big package!
    Come back team of the year! :p
     
    #6 Yetti, Jul 18, 2009
  7. glimmertwins

    glimmertwins Member

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    While a #1 pick wouldn't hurt us, given that we already seem to have a good squad to surround around a star, I'm sure next year's likely lotto pick is a means to end - to acquire an already established star rather than a chance to cultivate a young team like foe example OKC has.
     
    #7 glimmertwins, Jul 18, 2009
  8. DtJohnKimbell

    DtJohnKimbell Member

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    Best case, I love scola but trade him while his value is high, he is gettin up there in age, trade battier too, cause ariza and battier are basically the same player, for a solid player a good one like bosh or somewhere along those lines, we sign wafer, let wafer, ariza, c-bud, JT, Anderson, Brooks, Landry, Dorsey, play alot of minutes and start to hopefully develop in to better players, get a good pick next year and hope that we can still land another star in 2010 with a young good team to accompany this star player
     
    #8 DtJohnKimbell, Jul 18, 2009
  9. rpr52121

    rpr52121 Sober Fan
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    You do realize that the last 4th seed from any conference win the NBA Title were the Celtic in 1969, and in the last 30 years the only 4th seed to get to the Finals were the Dallas Mavericks?
     
    #9 rpr52121, Jul 18, 2009
  10. T-Slack

    T-Slack Member

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    Best case: The Rockets winning the lottery.

    Worst case: Yao coming back at the end of the season, and we end up winning meaningless games. And also Trevor Arzia turns out to be a bad signing, which I think he will and hurting our cap space for 2010. Let me tell you why. Name one person that played for another team after playing in Phil Jackson's system, that went on to be a breakout star. You can't really name any. What I'm trying to say is, Arzia look good when he was playing with the lakers because he was a part of thier system. We'll be lucky if he averages 12 points a game. This will prove to be a bad signing.
     
    #10 T-Slack, Jul 18, 2009
  11. dexkk

    dexkk Member

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    Trading Battier and Scola would literally tank this team. You are talking about rebuilding the team completely (taking 4-5 years before we stock up on good draft picks). I don't think the Rockets will go in that direction.

    I think Rockets are looking to contend for championship asap. This means, we continue to trade/sign role players that can fit the system and go for another contention in 2011 with tmac's replacement and return of Yao for his final year.
     
    #11 dexkk, Jul 18, 2009
  12. Yetti

    Yetti Contributing Member

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    The Houston Rockets did it on the way to their second championship, possibly from 6th place in the west. :p
     
    #12 Yetti, Jul 18, 2009
  13. sabesque

    sabesque Member

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    The worst case scenario is we'll get 82+ games of basketball from a team that has heart, passion and fight.

    If you love basketball, thats a pretty good "worst case scenario"
     
    #13 sabesque, Jul 18, 2009
  14. sabesque

    sabesque Member

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    Worst case scenario:
    • Your allstar center is out for the year
    • your allstar sg/sf is out for at least half the year
    • you have over 40 million on the bench for most of the season

    Can't get much worse. We should kick back and see what becomes of the season.
     
    #14 sabesque, Jul 18, 2009
  15. rpr52121

    rpr52121 Sober Fan
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    We are chatting about the best case scenario, so if Daryl Morey would to take swig of felix felicis...

    1. Buddinger develops in a starting SG by year 2.

    2. Ariza learns how to faceguard from Battier, and learns how to drive from Aaron.

    3. Landry & Dorsey learn how to defend without fouling.

    4. By the trading deadline, Chris Bosh is fed up with the rumours and requests it just be done. We trade for Bosh giving up only McGrady, Battier, Landry, Anderson, Lowry and a protected 1st round pick.

    5. After being traded, Bosh gets sick with mono, requiring him be held out for the rest of the season.

    6. In May, Yao being noble and wishing to only get what he feels he has earned, opts out of his max contract, resigning with a 2 year, 3rd yr player option, 4th year team option, $40 million contract.

    7. We win the Lottery despite winning 38 games by sending Mutumbo to represent us, and pick John Wall.

    8. Scola resigns for $6 million.

    9. Leunan gets a shot with the team.

    10. Skip to My Lou is resigned at the TE.

    11. Brad Miller is signed as back-up at vet min to win a title.

    12. Tired of being in Greece, Josh Childress signs with Rockets because Adelman buys him dinner 3 nights in a row.

    13. Yao takes the summer off and is ready to play come 2010-11.

    AB/John Wall/Skip to My Lou
    Buddinger/Taylor
    Ariza/Childress/Marty Leunan
    Bosh/Scola/Hayes
    Yao/Miller/Dorsey
     
    #15 rpr52121, Jul 18, 2009
  16. sabesque

    sabesque Member

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    hahaha i love it. Please put down the cocktail
     
    #16 sabesque, Jul 18, 2009
  17. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    wow man great post
     
    #17 peleincubus, Jul 18, 2009
  18. Nolocke

    Nolocke Member

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    Best case scenario for a Rockets fan this season is that T-mac gets traded for some players with life in them.

    Worst case scenario? We are living it.
     
    #18 Nolocke, Jul 18, 2009
  19. rpr52121

    rpr52121 Sober Fan
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    I was just talking about being a 4th seed.

    Everyone knows that the Rockets mean business when they are a 6th seed. I mean they have won 8 playoff series as a 6th seed!!!
     
    #19 rpr52121, Jul 18, 2009
  20. tinman

    tinman Contributing Member
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    The worst case is that we lose Rick Adelman.
     
    #20 tinman, Jul 18, 2009
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