40 is still considered a long life in a lot of third world countries. A childhood friend of mine who lived in Mexico for 10 years said that late 20s was considered old in the Mexican interior due to diet and lack of healthcare.
i don't see how a year of social distancing/isolation is going to be sustainable frankly, our society just has too much invested in the entire infrastructure to be otherwise. I think treat and manage these outbreaks may have to become the new normal, along with a lot more death.
With my limitless supply of hoarded toilet paper I will become the new John D Rockefeller, titan of industry. Spoiler (not really true...anybody got a roll to spare?)
You said the magic word, infrastructure...why pay for office space for half a year when your workers are getting the job done in their own home office on their own internet? And they're happy to do it? They are saving money by not driving, not putting wear and tear in their vehicle and not paying for fuel. They're also able to sleep longer, so they're more productive. Chances are they will eat at home, which will encourage better health over eating a Big Mac every day. So the infrastructure changes. Close down or downsize your offices. You have a conference room that everyone comes in and parks at with their laptops for a brainstorm or big work session or big meetings. Your internet and power bills are lower. All very situational based on your industry but as I said earlier in this thread, if you're banging out cyber-widgets, there's not a huge reason to be at the office. Good managers with good productivity measuring tools don't mind virtual spaces.
I think a lot of people will be dealing with agoraphobia for a long time. My wife absolutely refuses to go anywhere outside of our neighborhood.
You either live in a strange place, or with strange people, or you have a strange view of society. People will be going back out, people are craving to go back out.
That's a very black and white assessment of a very nuanced observation. -Telecommuting is way up (leaving for work) -Brick and Mortar sales are way down (leaving to shop) -Live entertainment sales are way, way down (watching something in person) I never discounted social interactions. That's a product of biological imperative. Humans are pack animals and need to socialize so it's going to happen. However, not many people shake hands or hug new or causal acquaintances anymore. People don't have to touch to be next to each other. Look at East Asian societies where bows are the accepted greeting. So why would we go back to: -Driving to an office when productivity is as good or even higher at home, where the company doesn't need to pay for office space or utilities -Going to a store when we can order online, unless it's an emergency, impulse or too big to ship -Watch a movie in a big dark quiet room with great sound when we can have that in our own home Yes, some things are going to come back. But it's never going to be the same. You're going to see people in 20 years who refuse to shake hands.
There's a pretty big debate right now in architecture and development circles about what is going to happen to office spaces. Prior to the pandemic there was a very big trend in retrofitting offices to the open concept and terms like "informal meeting space", "free form work space" and "collaboration space" were really hot. There was a lot of talk about doing away with fixed desks and encouraging people to mingle and work in ad hoc clusters. The idea was that type of organization could lead to a better work environment by encouraging interaction and exchange of ideas. Of course there would be a other stuff exchanged too so under a pandemic those type of spaces are exactly the most risky. In the last year there's been a rush to reconfigure offices, making them more segregated and controlled. The hated cubicle partitions are back along with plexiglass partitions. Workers are encouraged to stay at their desks. What we're seeing is not a decline in productivity with those practices and people working from home. That leads me to believe that we will see a decline in office space and we won't be going back to large open offices. For companies looking at the bottom line why would you want to spend money on a lot of square footage if you don't need it to be profitable. My guess is that following COVID-19 we will see a trend away from office development and more towards housing. We might see office buildings even converted into housing.
Art Vandelay of Vandelay Industries? In the job market, if the only difference between two jobs was WFH or work in a tiny box, which would you choose? This was becoming a trend before the pandemic. I know people who left my company just for this perk. In response, my company instituted an even better WFH policy to retain talent. There are some jobs that require you to be on site. There are some that are just for control purposes. Most of the control freak managers/owners are Boomers and older. These people are exiting the workforce now. It's in my original prediction- they can't or won't change so they leave.
Open concept spaces were for executives to be able to see their people working (control) and to save money on office space. Study after study showed that "collaborative" spaces and open concepts actually lowered individual productivity. It was really all about squeezing as many people into a space as possible. Now that a company can get people to work from home and be MORE productive in most cases, that'll be the new trend.
From the D&D These Older Workers Hadn't Planned To Retire So Soon. The Pandemic Sped Things Up August 23, 20215:07 AM ET Norma Jasso, 62, sped up retirement plans after her daughter asked for help with a new baby. She stands with a highchair her father had commissioned from a shop in Sinaloa, Mexico. Her daughters used it and now her grandson will too. Andrea Hsu/NPR When Norma Jasso first started working from home in March 2020, she thought it was fun. "I could wake up later, not have to commute, not have to put my pumps and my working clothes on," says Jasso, who was a regulatory case manager for San Diego Gas and Electric. But soon, her days grew longer. She found herself checking email at odd hours. She missed her colleagues. She'd been with the utility for 23 years and found joy being around people. She hadn't planned to retire for at least five years, but about a year into the pandemic, her daughter called. She was expecting her first child and wanted her mom's help. It was a request Jasso couldn't refuse. "My mom helped me when I had my daughters, and so I thought, how wonderful. I could pay it back, pay it forward, pay it with love," she says. She met with a financial planner to figure out whether she had enough money to retire. To her surprise, her 401(k) retirement account had grown considerably, thanks to market gains during the pandemic. Just before Christmas, after weathering a difficult hurricane season, she moved to rural Alabama to live with a nephew. With no easy access to transportation, she can't imagine being able to find a new job. "I wish I could say that I could embrace retirement, but it scares me — not being a part of something," she says. The closest place she can think of where she might find a job is at the nearby Dollar General store, but with the delta variant surging and no one wearing masks, she's not interested. "I don't want to be out there," she says. Norma Jasso and her husband, Samuel, are getting their house in San Diego ready for sale. They're planning to move just up the coast to be close to their new grandson. Retirees are reassessing life and setting priorities In San Diego, Jasso has taken stock of this moment. She says she has lived two-thirds of her life already. She has just one-third to go. "What do I want to do with that one-third?" she asks. Prioritizing family, friends and community is high on her list. She's volunteering with the group MANA de San Diego, mentoring young Latinas. And she and her husband are now getting their house ready for sale. They're moving up the coast to be close to their new grandson, who was born in early August.
The lowest life expectancy in 2019 was 53 in the CAR. But I'm sure there are particular regions of nations that have extremely low life expectancy and it averages out. Lowest Mexican state life expectancy in 2017 was Chihuahua at 73.11.
