You won't see a full fire-sale like they had to in the 2010's because this time they do still have a viable farm system that while being recently pillaged from, isn't in the decimated state it was in 2010. Also, Bregman, Altuve, Correa, Springer are younger than Berkman/Oswalt/Biggio/Bagwell/Lee/Tejada were when a complete tear-down had to happen. All that being said, I would have relished the opportunity for Luhnow to oversee the next reload/rebuild whenever it may be. Having one of the guys who was in charge of Tampa is likely the next best thing.
Your definition of "out of it" and I are completely different. Getting knocked out in the ALDS while our offense gets shutdown and embarrassed on National tv by the Rays pitching is being, "out of it." We are not winning the world series this year without starting pitching so for what I'm concerned we are already, "out of it." Getting in touch with reality is good at times and healthy.
I am generally for keeping prospects and using FAs to get stars/above average players. Trades should be done for needed veterans/stars or to acquire young talent for unneeded players. The Yankees front office does a lot of things I expect the Rays would do if the Rays had money. Other than the Stanton trade, I liked most of the player acquisitions the Yankees have done lately from a value standpoint. From an Astros fan standpoint, I've hated most of their moves. A top payroll and trying to make efficient moves like small market teams have done.
On getting in touch with reality, Nationals last year should have been knocked out of the NLDS and beat a 107-win team to win the World Series. The Astros are not likely to win the World Series without Verlander. Zeus comes down from Olympus and uses a thunderbolt to ressurect Verlander's arm, the Astros are still unlikely (edited, meant unlikely) to win the World Series. The thing is, the Astros still have a 8-10% chance to win the World Series. Most teams don't have that. As such, planning on a future after next year when the Astros are unlikely to have as good a chance as this season is foolish.
Nationals had one of the best pitching duo which won them the series. They threw out their aces on the road and they came clutch. Thats the point I'm trying to make is PITCHING is the only thing that wins in the postseason. Having an offense that complements you is amazing but you have to have at least a solid ace in the postseason. If Verlander cant come back then the season is done. Plain and simple.
The situation today is vastly different than it was in 2006-2011: First, Houston’s core of players is not declining. Yes, they have a lot of value reaching free agency in the next 2 years. But their 2 best players (Correa and Bregman) haven’t even reached their peak age range yet, and Altuve is unlikely to reach age-related decline within the next 3-4 seasons. Second, the current roster is STACKED, especially compared with the Astros clubs of 2006-2011. They have a much better chance of contending (especially next season) than those teams did. Houston projects for ~50 war in 2021, and that’s without signing or extending a single free agent (although it assumes Verlander will be healthy). But even absent of Verlander, they’d project for ~45 war, which is well within the range of contending. Finally, the league has evolved since the last rebuild. In 2011 Houston was able to enter a rebuild with several advantages that simply don’t exist now. Teams didn’t tank, so Houston was virtually guaranteed the #1 pick. The draft bonus structure allowed teams with large pools to maneuver to parlay their #1 pick into multiple top 30 value picks. Fewer teams were using analytics which gave Houston an advantage when evaluating draftees and other teams prospects. Absent those advantages, rebuilding is much less of a sure bet to show results. Houston’s best path forward is to maximize the chances of winning with their current core, likely by trying to extend Correa and/or Springer, continuing to be better than other teams at identifying and developing pitching prospects while being at the forefront of technology/analytics/innovation, and developing an advantage at acquiring international talent. That combined with Cranes continued willingness to spend money and employing an outlook similar to St. Louis and Tampa, of always being willing to listen to trade proposals and accepting short term sacrifices for long term gains, should allow the Astros to be a 90+ win team thru at least this decade.
Off the top of your head, which Astros starting pitcher in the 2017 World Series had the longest outing? It wasn't Verlander... Even more telling... which starting pitcher in the 2017 World Series in the 4 Astros wins had the longest outing, and what was it? That also happened to be the only Astro starter that actually recorded a win in the World Series. Ironically, out of all the dominant starters from last year, Urquidy recorded the first starting pitching win in the World Series. IOW, your premise is bullshit that a team must have dominant starting pitching to win a WS best of 7... its a crapshoot, like most of the playoffs, and you need to have a plethora of bullpen quality arms. And in a season where everybody makes the playoffs... their odds are going to be in the top third regardless of who they have pitching for them.
Now do a "Hitting" thread. "Vaunted lineup!" "Deep lineup!" "Scary lineup!" When and if the bats come around, pitching will go to ****.
Exactly, this lineup is weak at the moment. They need a shake up. Move the guys hitting up and the guys not down. Springer looks sloppy. If he don't turn it around he should be shipped for what ver we could get and hope we can resign Brantley. Reddick should be as good as gone
This is silly. If anything, hitting > pitching given that the difference in production between an elite hitter and a shitty hitter is much greater than the difference between an elite pitcher and a shitty pitcher. Hitters are more in control of what happens in a given PA than pitchers.
In the postseason as a whole, hitting stats typically drop more than pitching stats (i.e., elite hitters have less control in a given AB than elite pitchers). Hitting is more predictable, but if you get a couple of hot pitchers headed to the postseason... Astros have a 3.40 ERA and a 3.88 FIP right now. I was bullish on the Astros pitchers prior to the season, but half the staff is hurt. And yet, they are still producing.
I don't think it's surprising the postseason favors pitchers more than hitters given that with the more relaxed schedule teams are able to shorten up their rotation and can be more aggressive with their bullpen usage such that starters typically don't face a lineup three times during a game, but I don't think that says anything about who has more control over a given AB. Given the rate at which certain stats begin to stabilize, it's clear that hitters have a little more control than pitchers over K/BB and significantly more control over what happens to the ball when it is put in play.
Lack of variability doesn't equal more control on a plate by plate appearance basis. Lack of variability only means lack of variability. Gurriel is more or less Gurriel each at bat. There isn't a plate disciplined Gurriel and a wild Gurriel. There is just a wild Gurriel. Framber Valdez....if he's wild, doesn't matter the quality of the hitter. If he's on, Mike Trout tips his hat. Why does tiring of a pitcher matter so much in three times through the order? Because quality of the pitcher, even if it is the same pitcher tired, matters more than the hitter on a given AB. Why does being aggressive with bullpen matter? Because good pitching affects good hitting more than good hitting hits good pitching. I do agree that batters have more influence over batted balls and K/BB on a macro scale as they are more likely to see representative sampling of pitchers. Change the representation of hitters, pitchers change less. Change the representation of pitchers, hitters change more.
Have some of you guys seriously never watched postseason baseball? Since when is hitting more important than pitching in the postseason? Most elite pitchers stay elite in the postseason which can not even be closely said about hitting. The Stros had a .596 OPS w/ RISP last world series which was the WORST SINCE 1969 and you wanna tell me hitting is more reliable? Most of the posters who refuse to ponder a rebuild are the same posters that will be nowhere to be found when we lose 100 games. I've been to 20+ Stros games every year since 2005 and will continue to support this team. None of this **** matters anyways because the season ill be canceled this season. The smart thing to do is short the gambling stocks cuz this season is doomed.
