[Film-Study]: Breaking down the Capela/Howard lineup

Ohh this a very nice read . Very encouraging !!! Let's get it Rockets !!!

 

Imperfect data.

 

Clarify

 

Wow interesting stats! So we actually don't need a stretch four? Also don't forget Capela is still very raw! Good job JB!

 

How in depth do you want me to go?

 

A stretch 4 is ideal for spacing. The article specifically mentions this:

 

I like hearing that. Stretch 4s are not always the answer. When you have a duo that pick up a high percentage of our own missed shots, second chance opportunities are a much better answer

 

Don't matter just start . You'll know when to stop . The more they merry . Just prove your point

 

First series of questions, 9-3 record. What are those teams? Were they fully healthy? How do they fair against league avg?

115 minutes over 12 games is under 10mpg, what lineups are we facing? Is it the lineups end the game with too, or just SLs?

Let's start there. Very basic.

 

Second set, how does this compare to TJ- Dwight, TJ- Capela, Dmo-Dwight, Dmo- Capela. Lets keep other variables the same, so bev, harden, ariza too. How does it compare in regards to rebounding %s and pts/poss?

 

There is never just a single answer in basketball. The problems with this lineup are the same one we ran into with Asik:

1. Two bigs with no range means far less spacing on the offensive end. This will really affect when Harden penetrates as Capela or Dwight will also be somewhere in the paint taking away space and if they aren't, the defender can just sag off to help out.

2. This lineup only works when we are out-rebounding the other team and when we fail to do so, the offense quickly becomes stagnant. Also, there is the matter of front court depth. If they have to sit for whatever reason, who will replace one of them as C? T-Jones is already questionable in his natural position and playing C was clearly draining and potentially injury causing for D-Mo

 

But Josh Smith is a better defender than Capela...

 

The Rockets have found their own lineup of death
By Danny Emerman  @DanEmerman_SBN on Dec 23, 2015, 7:45a 1 1


Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
J.B. Bickerstaff has struck gold by pairing Dwight Howard and Clint Capela up in the front court. What other combinations have thrived and which have failed?

 TWEET SHARE (6) PIN
Although the Rockets have certainly had a disappointing start, they still have talented, versatile players. And don't look now, but Houston is 10-4 in their last 14 games and haven't lost at home since November. The reason why the Rockets have picked it up is not necessarily the coaching change or a cultural shift, it's the funky lineups that are stifling opposing teams.

Especially with Donatas Motiejunas returning, J.B. Bickerstaff has a myriad of uniquely skilled players to mix and match and find the right formula.

Can the Rockets win by playing Clint Capela and Dwight Howard at the same time? Skeptics would point out the lack of three-point shooting, foul trouble worries, and free throw shooting woes. Can James Harden and Ty Lawson coexist in the backcourt? The numbers are bullish.

The Good

The Lineup of Destruction: Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Capela-Howard

Whenever the 26-1 Golden State Warriors play Draymond Green at center with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, and Harrison Barnes surrounding him, they are virtually unstoppable. Commonly referred to as the "Lineup of Death," the five-man combination outscores opposing teams by 66.5 points per 100 possessions. That is an almost unthinkable number.

Since that production is uncanny and may never be recreated, it would be fallacy to say that the Rockets have anything close to that. On the other hand, the Rockets most effective lineup, with Clint Capela and Dwight Howard doing their best Hakeem Olajuwon/Ralph Sampson impersonation, approaches the Warriors' remarkable lineup in some respects.

With Dwight Howard, Clint Capela, James Harden, Trevor Ariza, and Patrick Beverley on the court, the Rockets zig while the rest of the NBA zags. Instead of spreading the floor and playing with the cliché "Pace and Space," the Rockets lay the smack down by locking down the paint defensively and crashing the boards, creating the "Lineup of Destruction."

In 78 minutes, the "Lineup of Destruction" has out-rebounded opponents by nearly 14 rebounds (the Warriors' Lineup of Death only has a +4 in that category). They have both an offensive and defensive rebounding percentage of 31.4%, which is the best for any combination on the team.

Lastly and most importantly, the "Lineup of Destruction" has a +21.8 point differential per 100 possessions, which does not even compare to Golden State's 66.5, but it is definitely not a modest number. The fact that this is the current starting lineup is very encouraging.

Lineup of Uncertainty: Lawson-Harden-Brewer-Ariza-Capela

Leading the team in point differential per 100 possessions, this five-man combination has the components of a great team: a small-ball squad with playmakers and shooters centered around a capable big.

The jury is still out on this lineup, though, since they have only shared the court for less than 14 minutes, surely too small of a sample size. Although they don't seriously qualify to be one of the best lineups for the Rockets, their +51.2 is worth mentioning. Plus, their high volume of field goal attempts (25.2) is indicative of the type of pace the Rockets want to play.

The Bad

Lineup of Mediocrity: Beverley-Harden-Brewer-Jones-Capela

This grouping has played the sixth most minutes on the team, despite producing a net zero scoring output. They have played 42 minutes together and have a -0.6 point differential.

This lineup does not rebound well and shoots a lot of threes, but expectedly do not do anything spectacular.

The Ugly

Lineup of Chyme: Lawson-Harden-Brewer-Jones-Howard

This lineup is simply abysmal. Led by lackluster performances from Corey Brewer and Ty Lawson, this lineup has been outscored by over 33 points per 100 possessions.

The biggest issue with this lineup by the numbers is the rebounding, as they are out-rebounded by 19 boards per 100 possessions despite having Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones on the floor. What statistics won't tell you is that the reason their rebounding is so poor with that group is mainly effort.

The lack of rebounds for this lineup has led to an absurd number of field goal attempts for the opponent, 37 more than the Rockets to be exact.

Whenever they are on the court together, they play a disgusting brand of basketball that leaves the taste of vomit in my mouth. Thank God this lineup has only played 15 minutes so far.

Lineup of Kevin McHale's Ghost: Beverley-Harden-Brewer-Ariza-Howard

For much of the beginning of the season, the Rockets died with this lineup playing meaningful minutes game after game. For some reason, McHale was so hesitant to abandon components of this lineup (cough, Brewer, cough), it cost Houston several games.

This was an embarrassing attempt at a small-ball lineup with Howard as the lone big. It backfired mainly because Brewer, Ariza, and Harden have been streaky at best from behind the arc. Especially this year, all three of those guysstruggled mightily from deep early on.

Recording an abysmal point differential of -53.7 points per 100 possessions in 25 minutes, this group is worse than disappointing. Say what you will about Kevin McHale, but this lineup surely did not help his job security in Houston.

 

Yeah..the next hand full of games should give us some good ball data to crunch competition wise

 

So why is Capela/Howard working but Asik/Howard failed?

Is Capela just able cover more ground being that much more athletic? So he grabs more boards, defends better away from the paint and can catch and create on offense?

 

Asik wasn't happy playing with another big man like Howard..he cried most of that year

 

capela is way more athletic and quicker than asik so it can work in spurts. Asik is just a traditional 5 who is slow and isn't as versatile defensively. He doesn't react as fast as Capela. Also at the time with Asik, Howard was very much involved on offense. Now not so much. Houston wasn't as perimeter orientated as they are now. Roles have changed since then.

 

I think Capela is able to use his length at PF better than Asik. It compliments Howard because Dwight's all muscle, while Capela's all length. Plus Capela's 6/11 but can guard the perimeter and still cover the paint. He's a PF with enough size to play center, with footwork like a SF.

 

The ideal duo would be Capela (C) & DMo (PF) with Howard traded for other legitimate assets.