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[ESPN Insider] Soph 20: Biggest Disappointments

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by playdo, Mar 22, 2014.

  1. playdo

    playdo Member

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    It's not a player's fault that he gets drafted high or that much is expected of him. Teams draft players because of what they have done and, more important, what they might be able to do.

    I have frequently written that it is a mistake to think a player has arrived after one good month just as it is a mistake to think they are doomed for failure because they had a bad month, season, or even two seasons. However, it is fair to evaluate second-year players to determine just where they stand in the league.

    There is not a defining connection between players younger than 22 who start out poorly -- some end up figuring it out, some don't. As discussed frequently, much of that success or failure results in large part to where the player is playing, who he is playing for, etc.

    For these five men, though, there has been ample opportunity for them to consistently impress. But this season they have all taken a step backward or sideways. Here are the most disappointing players of this class:

    SOPHOMORE 20 RANKINGS

    1. Anthony Davis, Pelicans
    2. Damian Lillard, Blazers
    3. Andre Drummond, Pistons
    4. Terrence Jones, Rockets
    5. John Henson, Bucks
    6. Jonas Valanciunas, Raptors
    7. Jared Sullinger, Celtics
    8. Bradley Beal, Wizards
    9. Miles Plumlee, Suns
    10. Dion Waiters, Cavaliers
    11. Brian Roberts, Pelicans
    12. Terrence Ross, Raptors
    13. Thomas Robinson, Blazers
    14. Jeremy Lamb, Thunder
    15. Mike Scott, Hawks
    16. Khris Middleton, Bucks
    17. Draymond Green, Warriors
    18. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats
    19. Maurice Harkless, Magic
    20. Kendall Marshall, Lakers

    Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bobcats

    The concern about MKG going into his rookie year was that, though he was the youngest player in the draft in terms of his birthdate, his body was already fully formed. That meant he was probably beating up inferior and weaker athletes for most of his career, which wasn't going to happen often in the NBA. Still, coming out of college, he projected to be an excellent cutter and transition player with athleticism and feel. But, thus far, he hasn't made an impact in those areas.

    MKG has taken advantage of his rare matchup edge on the offensive glass, however. And his length and strength on defense are part of Charlotte's overall success, to be sure. He could be their top overall defensive player. But the fact the Bobcats are a bit better, metrics-wise, with him on the bench than on the court is not a surprise. Wings who can't shoot or score cause all sorts of crowding problems for the other four guys on the offensive end.

    For MKG to take a huge step forward on offense, he must either learn to find more ways to get to the rim or clean up his jump shot, which is really problematic and makes him reticent to be aggressive. His free throw stroke only furthers his concerns and is a big reason why he gets to the rim so infrequently.

    The Bobcats expected more from the No. 2 overall pick, naturally, and their front office is surely imagining what the team would look like with Andre Drummond instead. Like it or not, MKG has to live with those comparisons.

    Harrison Barnes, Warriors

    Ask any member of the Denver Nuggets last season about Barnes and they'll tell you the Warriors suddenly gained a huge advantage when he replaced an injured David Lee in that series. Based on that performance, it was fair to expect a big jump in Year 2 for the supremely talented wing. Instead, it looks as if his move to the bench with the arrival of Andre Iguodala has hampered his confidence. He is a huge step down from Iguodala on offense and defense and knows he is not helping his team.

    Barnes may be the best overall athlete in this class but, like MKG, he's not getting to the rim often. His overall lack of aggression translates into few free throw attempts and he has become more of a one-trick pony (a good 3-point shooter) even though he's getting more minutes than last season.

    This is a man who should be dynamic on the wing in transition and, as a second-unit player, abusing wings in the post (he has the potential to have a strong post game). But it's just not happening. Barnes is only 21, and still growing into his body, so there is hope for him. Perhaps we'll see another postseason surge from him.

    Austin Rivers, Pelicans

    During Rivers' rookie season, I could see he was learning how to get by his defender but wasn't ready to finish around help defenders. There was reason to believe the game would slow down for him some in his second season, helping him to finish around the rim better or just shoot better. But both areas continue to be major problems for him. His minutes are down because his production is the same or worse in almost every metric. And if Jrue Holiday hadn't been hurt, we'd probably almost never see Rivers play.

    Rivers' burst of speed off a stop-and-go move is still close to elite level, but it doesn't result in anything good often enough. Still, his ability to break down defenses does create open looks for teammates off a swing pass or two and his competitiveness on defense is a plus. So all is not lost here, especially considering his age; at 21, he can still get much better.

    But when your dad is an elite coach, and when you were one of the top prep players in the country who went to Duke and got drafted in the lottery ahead of John Henson, Jared Sullinger, Terrence Jones and Miles Plumlee (all who would look very nice playing next to Anthony Davis -- even off the bench), expectations are exceedingly high.

    Andrew Nicholson, Magic

    Earlier in the season, Nicholson had the look of a very distinctive player -- part Al Jefferson, part Ryan Anderson. Few big men in the NBA can score in the post efficiently and stretch defenses with a 3 or long 2, and it appeared Orlando might have that kind of player in Nicholson.

    Then 2014 hit and Nicholson's minutes and production dropped almost immediately. He has not scored 10 or more points in a game since Jan. 2 and it looks as if Orlando is concerned about his defensive liabilities. He can mask his less-than-athletic body on offense with his special set of skills, but it's harder for his coaches to hide it on defense, as evidenced by his lack of playing time.

    Orlando has a number of talented young prospects; until recently that group included Nicholson. Now, as a 24-year-old that has to deal with new talent coming on board in June via the draft, the future is uncertain for him. But his potential skill as a 3-point shooter (it is not yet a reliable weapon) may still allow him to specialize as a shooter off the bench down the road.

    Alexey Shved, Timberwolves

    Shved has all the tools to be a very good starter in this league -- he's tall, long and very athletic, and he's a skilled dribbler with a good feel for passing the ball. But not only has he not materialized into a starting-level player, his inconsistent focus and effort have often made it tough for his head coach to play him at all.

    The Wolves are desperate for bench help at any position and would love for Shved to fill a role as a scorer, a defender, an energy guy, or just a playmaker. But he hasn't been able to fill any of those roles and his stay in the NBA looks as if it could come to an end soon. It's not a question of talent, but an inability to utilize his talent to create any kind of impact or moderate production.
     
  2. WinkFan

    WinkFan Contributing Member

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    The hell. If can't do the job you were hired to do, it's your fault.
     
  3. vstexas09

    vstexas09 Contributing Member

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    Is Royce White not considered a sophomore?
     
  4. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    Wasn't hard to see that Austin Rivers would turn out to be a scrub.
     
  5. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    Don't get the hype over Jonas. Every time I watch him he looks way out of his depth
     
  6. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    Since he didn't play in an NBA game last year, I guess he's considered a rookie now. Like Blake Griffin.
     
  7. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    To be fair, other than the top 3, none of those players are particularly great or consistent.
     
  8. NotChandlerParsons

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    Ew, what's Dion Waiters doing at #10.
     
  9. DudeWah

    DudeWah Member

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    How is D-Mo not in that top 20 list when T-Rob is? :confused:

    Also the title kind of confused me. It's not top disappointments. It seems like it's top 20 sophomores and then the 5 biggest disappointments.
     
  10. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Pretty good list. Hard to make one of those without criticism

    But yeah, since Royce White played some games for the vipers last year, he is a sophomore. It's not like Griffin being injured all year.
     
  11. Codman

    Codman Contributing Member

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    I hate the Suns, living here in PHX, but I love watching Plumlee. I was not sold on him at first because of all the raw skillset, but man, he is going to be a special player.

    One thing that I notice about him is the power. He works so hard, too.

    Glad to see TJones on there. I hope Morey doesn't "PatPat" or "Landry" him. Good lord...we have not treated our PFs well in awhile. (cough cough Scola)
     
  12. Codman

    Codman Contributing Member

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    Why would DMo be on the list? In comparison to that list, he has a long, long way to go. At best, he's an honorable mention.
     
  13. WFU Guy

    WFU Guy Member

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    As a Bobcats STH, I believe these kinds of opinions of MKG are that of statisticians and occasionally tuning in moreso than folks that actually watch the Cats play night in, night out. His contributions rarely make it to a stat sheet let alone a highlight reel. But he keeps a ton of offensive plays alive and is the only player that Clifford allows to go after offensive rebounds. His jump shot or lack of it is strongly minimized when Henderson shoots from the outside. When Hendo is staying within 10 feet, MKGs lack of a shot crowds the lane and hurts offensive productivity. Thus the went to get Gary Neal.
     
  14. CantGoLeft

    CantGoLeft Member

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    DMo's box score stats aren't very good, but his DefRtg is the best on the team. Could be a bit of a fluke because of small sample size, but he's averaging about the same minutes per game Asik did his last year as a Bull. DMo has been a great PNR help defender this season with his height/length and mobility. I would take DMo over TRob any day.
     
  15. DudeWah

    DudeWah Member

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    That wasn't really a prop up to D-Mo as much as it was a slight against Robinson. That guy is a terrible NBA player in every single way other than rebounding, which he can't even manage to consistently do.

    That being said, however, D-Mo is definitely in the top 20 best players from last year's draft class. Compared to that list? Really? You realize it has Marshall and MKG on there, right?

    Plus (for argument's sake) they have similar stats.

    http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6618/thomas-robinson
    http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6464/donatas-motiejunas

    D-Mo is however a very effective defensive player so his stats don't tell the whole story. Whereas Robinson is not.


    While D-Mo is the better player and an important rotation member for a top seeded playoff team, T-Rob routinely gets subbed out for Meyers Leonard because of his inability to help his team.

    I was reading this article a while back after the portland game because some members linked to their site. It's really telling on just how bad Robinson is at the moment.

    http://www.blazersedge.com/2013/12/23/5240496/playbook-thomas-robinson-benched-meyers-leonard
     
  16. Chamillionaire

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    Bradley Beal should be higher on that list.
     
  17. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Kendall Marshall should not be on the list. Once he showed that his 3pt shooting was a mirage, he's back to being not useful at all as a player.
     
  18. what

    what Member

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    I agree. MKG is far from being a bust, and while he might not be a superstar player or even an allstar, his defensive attributes have clearly made the bobcats into a playoff team.

    MKG might be the best defensive player in the league right now.
     
  19. DudeWah

    DudeWah Member

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    Lawls. Please stop trolling.
     
  20. Jt29

    Jt29 Member

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    Big difference. Blake was seriously injured, royce wasnt.
     

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