I get that you have a higher TS% shooting threes than midrange in totality – much higher. Not Rocket science. But there is a difference the usual stats don’t show – covered threes vs. open threes. Does anybody have any stats for covered 3PT% vs open 3PT%? Does anybody have any stats for how many covered threes we shoot compared to the other top teams? I just hear about how many threes we take, and they constantly talk about the marching orders for the team being shoot more threes – the more the better. But IMO, you shouldn’t be jacking a three until somebody (Harden) does something to draw a double team. Double teams give somebody an open shot. That’s the way it’s been since I started watching Olajuwon’s Rockets. A related question I have – that I have asked before without a real answer – is…..does the primary backcourt creator (i.e. Harden, Westbrook) really have to shoot so many threes to open up their drives? What would happen if Harden just shot 2 threes a game? What would happen if Westbrook never took another three? Because I don’t see Ariza drawing too many double teams and kicking it out to Harden for an open three. You gotta figure Harden isn’t wide open on the perimeter too often. Harden's threes are going to be harder than his teammates'.
Just tested it. just shot 30 wide open threes and I made 4. Then had my bro guard me and I made 3. Difference is marginal. Let me know if you need anything else
I have been thinking about the issue of totality of threes vs broken down categories. I think the optimal ISO pull up three rate is lower than what we see sometimes. In harden's best games, he takes maybe 2-3 for the whole game. When he just takes them multiple times in a quarter it doesn't usually turn out well. We could definitely remove some highly covered threes (probably ~25-30%, 37-45% TS% for more consistent shots in the paint that are closer to 50-55% even when somewhat forced). We're also not taking into account any advanced stats like probability of getting rebound or giving up a fast break from jump shot vs closer shot.
Charles Barkley kept taking 3s because he felt it opened up drives. So if it makes a difference for Charles Fat b*stard Barkley, then it makes a difference for Santa Beard Harden and Speedy Westbrook Gonzales for sure.
That's what I'm interested in - how many three attempts are really necessary for a creator to keep the driving lanes open? Westbrook heaves up 8 missed threes in a game - that has to be way more than necessary. I understand going to the basket is harder on the body, so maybe you preserve yourself. This has been a question of mine since way back when I saw TMac settle for jumpers at important moments. Westbrook has been a bigger focus, because his 3PT%'s are never impressive. Harden's are worse this year, so I also question the shot selection.
Double Teams aren't the only way to get someone open. Tell that to the GSW for the last two years. As for your last question, Harden IS a three point shooter. He always has been. He has shot 5+ threes per 36 minutes every year of his career. (Compare that to Westbrook who shot under 2 for his first three years. You can't really compare the two.) He's also a primary playmaker, always has been, too. So, I don't really understand that question. If the defense gives him a three, he's going to take it. Does that explain shooting 9/gm. No, but it does explain why he's not shooting 2/gm, ever in his career. Hell, even Jordan (in an era of illegal defense making ISOs easier) shot over 3.5 per game in the playoffs for 3 of the last 4 titles (covering 56 playoff games). I'm willing to bet in this era, Jordan likewise would be shooting that many during the season, and probably over 5 per game.
doesnt nba.com hnave more advances stats like this now? i havent been there in awhile but they have shot locations like corner 3, top arc, etc. if they still have its in the players page somewhere.
Rockets 3pt% depending on defense distance 0-2 ft --- 22.9% 19th in league 2-4 ft --- 33.8% 6th in league 4-6 ft --- 36.1% 15th in league 6 + ft --- 40.1% 10th in league Attempts per game at each defender distance 0-2 ft --- 0.8 attempts 2-4 ft --- 7.0 attempts (leads league) 4-6 ft --- 16.6 attempts (lead by far) 6 + ft --- 15.4 attempts (2nd behind bkn) So the vast majority of our shots are coming from open to wide open looks. Common sense dictates the more open the higher the efficiency and this proves true. I anticipate that the 7 shots defended well (0-4ft) are a combination of 3 things. Jimmy pull-up threes, very good defense and late shot clock shots. But it does go to show that mikeD isn't lying when he says the offense could be much better. @oakdogg
from an eye test, i think most of harden's 3 comes up from contested 3s, the most typical one i can remember is that he takes the ball up the court, does a few between the leg dribble to make the defense back off a little bit and then steps up and shoots 3, that's not a good shot in my opinion, he rarely makes it
Actually his eFG% on his contested pull up 3's is the close to eFG% of every single shot in the NBA. It's an extreme luxury to have a shot he can get at any point be a league average shot.
Doesn't NBA.com show % of attempts at each distance. Showing our rank in % of attempts is more interesting than pure volume, since we simply shoot way more than anyone. In other words, how picky are we in shot selection based on defender distance vs the league.
