It will be very interesting to see how Click maneuvers this trade deadline. Despite the early injuries/struggles, there is no denying the talent and expectations of this team. Ultimately we have to see how things are looking once yordan and Urquidy return... but a solid bullpen piece seems almost absolutely necessary. Crane will likely give the green light to make any move necessary to help this team get to where we want them to be
Not sure if I want Merrifield. He was one of many players opening his mouth about the cheating scandal. How would he fit in the locker room after his comments? Would he change his tune and be like, that was the past. They're trying to change their image and I'll try my best to help them do that. I'm happy to be in Houston, they're a good team I now have a chance at a World Series title? Or will he be butthurt getting traded to Houston?
I was not aware of his comments on the cheating scandal. You made me think of an interesting point; this trade deadline, essentially every player on an expiring contract has a no-trade clause. If a guy gets traded to a team he doesn’t like, he can just opt-out of the season. It may make it less likely rental players get traded. I don’t expect a very active deadline. I expect a few veteran relievers to change hands, but no real blockbusters.
Good point on opting out if they get traded to a team they don't want to go to. I wonder if players will come out and say publicly don't trade me to these teams or I'll opt out. Or maybe they don't want to ruin their image so they'll just accept getting traded to any team. Maybe they indirectly say don't trade me to Houston and because it's Houston, people will be like, yeah, don't blame you for saying that. If a player hates Houston so much and they have lots of money already, I wonder if he says nothing. Gets traded to Houston and play a couple of games then opt out. It would be too late for the MLB to reject the deal and Houston would be screwed. Hopefully they just trade for players that are under contract past this season or players who kept their mouth shut regarding the scandal/Houston's apologies.
I'd like to trade for 1B Jake Bauers from the Indians. Because he's blocked at 1B (and OF, where he can also play), he's not even on their taxi squad. Could possibly develop into an answer at 1B. Was a fringe top 100 prospect not long ago in Tampa (Click connection), but was blocked by Choi. Always liked him, and he's still young and still has upside. Especially love his plate discipline. At least worth rolling the dice IMO. Should be able to get him for super cheap.
Gurriel is one of the few who looks like his old self. I want him back next year, won’t be expensive at age 37
Clown Rosenthal: Break up, tear down, sell the cheating Astros! Spoiler When the trade deadline hits on Aug. 31, only 27 days will remain in the regular season. Clubs likely will be much in the same position they are now, grappling with uncertainties. The potential for players to opt out. The fear of COVID-19 decimating their roster. The threat of the entire sport shutting down. If the postseason takes place, it will be with 16 participants instead of the customary 10. The extra spots will provide teams with less incentive to make trades, knowing they might crack the field regardless of whether they add talent. The playoffs also will be even more random than usual, starting with a best-of-three opening series that likely will include no fans, reducing the home-field advantage for top seeds and ending with a figurative asterisk attached to the champion. What general manager would mortgage long-term value for short-term gain under those circumstances, particularly when his owner might be unwilling to add significant payroll after experiencing a revenue shortfall in 2020 and fearing more of the same in ’21? Seventeen days from the deadline, teams are talking internally about how they will approach trades and engaging other clubs on certain players they might like to acquire. But ask executives how much activity to expect, and they respond with a collective shrug, using words like “strange” to describe the unprecedented situation. As one exec put it, “it feels weird to be trading humans right now.” How will the 2020 deadline be different? Let us count the ways: Scouting In a normal year, scouts rack up frequent-flyer miles as they criss-cross the country, getting last-minute looks at players their teams are trying to acquire. This year, scouts not only are prohibited from major-league parks, but also the alternate sites where teams are stocking the rest of their 60-man player pools. The league wants to limit attendance at games to workers it deems essential. Mascots make the cut. Scouts do not. Scouts view that distinction as a slap, another indication of their diminishing influence within the sport. Here’s more evidence: The video and data sharing program the league arranged so teams can gather information on potential trade acquisitions from alternate sites. Teams must opt in to the program, but most do much of their scouting today through video and data, and rely less on information scouts gather in the field. Players at the alternate sites, however, are not competing in actual game situations. There are no statistics, no standings, no consequences for poor performance. The cancellation of the minor-league season means the last time teams saw most of these prospects in legitimate game action was almost a year ago. A lot can change in a year, especially a lost year of development. With so little to evaluate, teams might be more prone to mistakes. Pressure on front offices Remember in 2017, when left-hander Dallas Keuchel called out the Astros for failing to make a significant move at the non-waiver deadline, criticism that helped spur the club to acquire Justin Verlander on the final day of the old August waiver period? Executives are unlikely to experience that same kind of clubhouse heat as their teams attempt to play through a pandemic in a season that carries less legitimacy than the typical 162-game march. “That’s a big part of the deadline that will be missing,” one exec said. In a normal year, teams would have completed about 110 games by July 31. Players will be banged up, tired from playing in the summer heat, eager for the boost in energy and performance that a trade acquisition often provides. Executives talk of players staring at them as they walk through the clubhouse in the days before the deadline, and losing sleep if they fail to supplement their clubs. They feel an obligation to their players, their coaches, their manager, their fans, their city. But what would happen this year if say, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman failed to acquire a starting pitcher? His players would be unlikely to revolt, and so would Yankees fans. The stakes are not as high. The pressure is not the same. Money A number of teams likely will try to address their loss of revenue by reducing payroll, giving clubs that operate with any degree of financial flexibility a considerable advantage. But which clubs actually will be in a position to pounce? Rival executives point to usual high-revenue suspects such as the Yankees and Dodgers, but those teams actually are losing the most money as they play without fans and their accustomed day-of-game revenues. The Dodgers, by signing outfielder Mookie Betts to a 12-year, $365 million extension, bet that at some point the baseball world will return to normal. But that does not mean the team will be willing to go all-out in 2020. Even if the Dodgers win the World Series, they still would not have won one in a 162-game season since 1988. And president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, while generally active at the deadline, is notoriously (and often correctly) stingy with his top prospects. The most motivated teams actually might be longtime patsies such as the Padres, who have not had a winning season since 2010 and not made the playoffs since ’06 but now stand a chance to alter the trajectory of their franchise. Still, in a depressed economic climate, would the San Diego ownership be willing to take on additional salary? Some executives believe if significant trades are made, they are more likely to be exchanges of players with similar pay and service than deals in which clubs part with prospects for veterans. Team control In recent years, the trade value of players approaching free agency plummeted, with teams unwilling to mortgage their futures for rentals they would control only for two months and the postseason. In 2020, that two-month window will reduce to one month, and the postseason in the 16-team format will be even more of a crapshoot than before, assuming it is played at all. So, how much future value would a team be willing to give for say, five outings from a starting pitcher, a dozen or so games from a reliever and 100 to 120 plate appearances from a hitter? The prorated salaries will reduce the financial hit of such acquisitions, but not erase it. The Astros’ George Springer, for example, had his salary reduced from $21 million to $7.7 million, yet still would be owed nearly $3.2 million for the final 27 days of the season. Testing Say a team wants to trade for Texas right-hander Lance Lynn, assuming the Rangers are even willing to move him when he is under contract for next season at $8 million. (The team already is drawing interest in Lynn, but currently is 8-9 and in second place in the AL West, good enough for a postseason berth in the expanded 16-team format.) A club typically might acquire a coveted starter at the deadline, fly him in the next day and pitch him the day after that. But some teams might want a trade acquisition this season to undergo intake testing, possibly delaying his availability for three days — his day of travel, plus 24 to 48 hours as he waits for results. A three-day delay might not sound like much, but in this case, it would constitute more than 10 percent of the remaining schedule. A person involved with the administration of the league’s health and safety protocols said intake testing would not be required because a newly acquired player already would have undergone monitoring testing every other day before the trade. Many teams also possess the ability to conduct rapid tests on-site — tests that are considered less reliable than the ones the league ships to labs in Utah and New Jersey, but at least provide some form of current information. Risk, though, is unavoidable: A player can test negative while the virus is incubating, then positive later. Teams also might react differently to different circumstances. How comfortable would a club be welcoming a player who has just flown cross-country into its clubhouse, no matter what the result of his rapid test might be? A team’s most attractive trade partner actually might be its opponent on Aug. 31 — a player who could simply walk across the field to his new clubhouse presumably would not require intake testing. The same seemingly would apply to a trade acquisition from a team within driving distance of his new club.
Spoiler Sellers In a compressed schedule, fewer teams will be out of contention on Aug. 31. The teams with the two worst records in their leagues, the Red Sox at 6-13 and the Pirates at 4-13, are only four and three games out of a playoff spot, respectively. Such gaps might increase as the season continues, but in a 16-team field, one or more clubs with losing records might secure a postseason berth. So really, how many teams will be more than four games out on Aug. 31? Six? Maybe eight? Rebuilding teams such as the Tigers, Orioles and Marlins — all of whom, ahem, currently would qualify for the postseason — still might prefer to sell rather than chase likely elimination in the best-of-three first round. Then again, why not take advantage of an unexpected moment and give players the chance to experience pennant-race and postseason pressure and build momentum for the future? The answer might hinge on whether the returns for players under control would justify giving up on the year. Another factor might be draft position, but no one knows what the 2021 draft will look like. The March agreement between Major League Baseball and the Players Association states if each club plays fewer than 81 regular-season games in ’20, “the Office of the Commissioner shall have the right, after conferring in good faith with MLBPA, to modify the draft order.” Other considerations also might discourage teams from selling. A non-contender, when dumping a potential free agent, generally is motivated by the idea of saving money, acquiring a prospect and giving the departing player a chance to win. But in the middle of a pandemic, some teams might take into account that certain players could be less enthused about leaving their families, even if only for a month or two. One executive said a non-contending GM might effectively throw up his hands and say: The important thing is, we’re playing baseball. We’ve been together. We’ve asked the players to sacrifice, discipline themselves above and beyond. Let’s just go with what we got. It’s a different year. Competitive integrity is another issue. In normal circumstances, the Royals would be open to trading relievers on one-year deals such as Trevor Rosenthal and Greg Holland. But in these circumstances, the message of such trades with one month to go might damage a team’s culture. The players left behind would not necessarily opt out and sacrifice a month of salary and service time. But if their team conceded, how willing would they be to push through injuries and adhere to the health and safety protocols? And in a season that already is less legitimate than a standard 162-game affair, what would it mean to the league if teams effectively started bailing? Opt-outs Say a team wants to acquire the Astros’ Michael Brantley, a potential free agent who is precisely the kind of professional hitter teams covet for stretch drives. Brantley, 33, will still be owed about $2.4 million at the deadline. Before acquiring him, wouldn’t a team want assurance that he will indeed play the rest of the season? It may sound strange to think a player in such a situation might bolt, but the Brewers’ Lorenzo Cain and Mets’ Marcus Stroman are examples of players who surprised their respective teams and sacrificed millions by opting out after the season started, citing concerns about COVID-19. It would not be a shock if a player who was traded made the same choice, deciding that such a move was not worth the trouble, particularly if he considered the potential reward of a World Series ring less meaningful than in a normal season. The solution here would appear simple: Major League Baseball will approve “windows” for clubs to talk to players if both teams agree. Such windows, typically for 72 hours, are granted when a team wants to acquire a player and sign him to an extension. The existence of a deadline, though, complicates matters. A trade would need to be agreed upon in the days before the deadline — unless the acquiring club, working through back channels (wink wink), received the assurance it needed from the player. Contingencies in trades When the Indians sent CC Sabathia to the Brewers on July 7, 2008, they acquired first baseman Matt LaPorta, pitchers Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson and a player to be named. The teams agreed that if the Brewers made the playoffs, the Indians would choose the player to be named; if not, the Brewers would get to pick. The Brewers qualified, and the Indians chose outfielder Michael Brantley over the player Milwaukee wanted to send them, infielder Taylor Green. A number of executives expect similar contingencies to be attached to some players to be named in trades before Aug. 31, based not only upon whether teams reach the postseason, but also whether the postseason takes place. The condition would work the same either way; a team cannot make the playoffs if the playoffs are canceled. A seller might accept less of a return to avoid the attachment of a contingency. A robust market for a player enables a team to get what it wants without any added conditions. But as teams get creative, a record number of PTBNs might be traded, removing some of the fun from the deadline. It would be difficult for teams to brag about the prospects they acquired if they could not publicly identify who those players were. Oh, but there’s more. The PTBNs would be those players who are not already part of 60-man pools. If a trade agreement filed with the league includes the standard “PTBN or cash,” the cash amount can be no more than $100,000. And here’s where things could get sticky. By rule, PTBNs must be announced within six months of the transaction. Minor-league contracts currently are suspended. If they remain suspended through the offseason, it’s possible the league would not allow PTBNs to be dealt, forcing the team to accept the $100,000 (or less) instead. One executive says such a scenario is highly unlikely, but by the letter of the rule it could happen, and the league has discussed the possibility with teams. Just one more potential complication in an already complex landscape. The Astros Put all of the above factors together, and it sure might seem like teams will find more reasons to avoid trades than make them over the next 2 1/2 weeks. But there is at least one club that, if it chooses, could electrify the market. And that club would be everyone’s favorite sign-stealing brigade, the Astros. These are not the AJ Hinch/Jeff Luhnow Astros, and not simply because Dusty Baker is now manager and James Click is GM. The Astros have been ravaged by the absence of designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, the placement of reliever Joe Smith on the restricted list and the injuries to ace right-hander Justin Verlander and nearly all of their other relievers. At 8-10 going into Thursday night’s games, they trail the Athletics by 4 1/2 games in the AL West, and currently would not be one of the eight postseason qualifiers from the AL. But it gets worse. Baseball America ranked the Astros’ system next-to-last in the majors, ahead of only the Brewers, in its recently updated organizational prospect rankings. Part of the reason for the system’s depletion: The trades of numerous prospects in recent years for Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke and Roberto Osuna, among others. And remember, the Astros’ penalties for illegal sign-stealing included the losses of their first two picks in both the 2020 and ’21 drafts. If ever a team had reason to start over, it’s this one. Potential free agents such as Springer, Brantley and first baseman Yuli Gurriel might prefer to leave Houston rather than remain connected to a tainted franchise. So, why not offer to pay most of all of their remaining salaries in a trade and see what returns they might bring? Why not do the same with Greinke, who will be paid $32 million next season in the final year of his control, $10.33 million of that by the Diamondbacks? The Astros then could spend the offseason entertaining deals for players under longer control — shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Lance McCullers, both of whom are eligible for free agency after the 2021 season, and second baseman José Altuve and third baseman Alex Bregman, both of whom are signed through ’24. The process would start at the deadline. If the Astros turn proactive, Aug. 31 might actually feel like July 31. Other teams also could attempt to seize the moment, saying, “Let everyone else sit on their hands. We’ll zig while the others zag. We’re going for it.” Sounds crazy. Sounds like 2020.
Blah,blah, blah The fact that we have no first round picks gives us even less of a reason to try and rebuild right now. That being said, the national media would certainly hate for that to happen. If it did they might actually have to start behaving like journalists instead of spamming Astro hit pieces for clicks
The media would love the Astros to sell it all and tear it down... and then they'll write piece after piece of how the cheating scandal destroyed a potential dynasty, and how they all had a role in the dismantling of the Astros. Pats on the back galore. Granted, it would be exceedingy stupid for a team that already has Altuve/Bregman locked up, Alvarez for at least the next 5+ years, a bevy of young starters that could literally go either way (set rotation piece, above average bullpen piece), and the possibility of still being able to retain at least one of Springer/Brantley next year and Correa the year after. Nobody should be doing anything reactionary in this farce of a season.
I agree with Rosenthal that this team needs to sell. If we make the playoffs, we aren't going anywhere. Verlander appears to not be returning this year and we lost our closer for the year. This would be a great opportunity to trade Brantley, Springer, Gurriel, Grienke, Reddick, and a few others for prospects. Our window has closed and we should be proud that the Astros made it to two World Series and won 1 of them. It's time to re-build.
Man this is sad. Without adding or extending anyone, Houston projects to be a 90+ win team through at least 2024. If Crane is willing to sustain a $200M payroll like he is this season, they can be a 100+ win team during that stretch. Overreacting to a single injury or a small sample of games during a topsy turby pandemic season is a horrible idea.
Houston should look at surging teams and sell guys like Gurriel Reddick Brantley and or Grienke or Springer. Get some replacements and let them play the rest the year that way u can see where u need to go from there
You do realize that we are losing Springer, Gurriel, Brantley, and Reddick after this season, right? I highly doubt we will re-sign any of them (due to their age and injury history). We will not win 90 games next year with a roster that has holes all over the field and with old pitchers. Grienke and Verlander will be older and more prone to injuries. So explain how we get to 90 wins with older pitchers and holes at 1B, RF, CF, and LF.
Reddick is barely a capable everyday player at this point; he’s off to a hot start this season but projects to be a below average corner outfielder. On the open market he will be looking at a 1 year deal for less than $5m. Gurriel and Brantley are very good hitters with very limited defensive value; the range of contracts will depend heavily on the market, but neither is irreplaceable. Springer is a star player who has shown he can put up MVP numbers; there’s no arguing he would be a big loss and very difficult to replace. All total, those 4 players probably project for ~10 wins next season. This team was projected for ~105 wins with those guys; take away 10 and you’re at 95. So I could stop there. But wait, there’s more! Bregman and Correa are still young, and neither have reached the age where performance usually peaks. The same can be said for Alvarez. Add in likely improvement from Tucker and Toro, and the total net loss in position player wins is likely less than 10. Then, factor in the bevy of young pitching the Astros have who are likely to improve: Urquidy, Javier, Bielak, Taylor, Paredes, etc all are likely to be better next season than they are this season. Finally, if they lose all their pending free agents and don’t sign anyone else, their payroll would project to ~$150M. Considering this seasons payroll was about $210M, Houston would have PLENTY of money to add significant contracts to improve the team. $60M in one season can go a long way to replacing 3 everyday bats. Granted, if Verlander ends up needing TJS, that money would likely have to be used to address the rotation. But no matter how you slice it, Houston still projects to have a playoff-caliber roster in 2021. Looking out further is cloudier, as the projection is more dependent on young players like Tucker and Whitley panning out. But at a minimum this team has a legit shot at another WS next season and passing up that opportunity would be extremely stupid. ETA Current projected 2021 roster with salary and war: CF Straw $600k, 0.5 war 2B Altuve $29M, 4 war 3B Bregman $13M, 7 war SS Correa $13M, 5.5 war DH Alvarez $600k, 4 war 1B Diaz $3.3M, 0.5 war RF Tucker $600k, 2 war LF McCormick $600k, 0.5 war C Maldonado $3.5M, 1 war Bench: Jones/Garneau/Toro/Dawson $2.4M, 2 war total Total for position players: $67M, 27 war Rotation: Verlander, Greinke,McCullers, Urquidy, Javier $63M, 15 war Bullpen: Bielak, Pruitt, Valdez, Smith, Devenski, Taylor, James, Pressly $18.8M, 5 war Total for pitchers: $81.7M, 20 war Total for roster: $149M, 47 war (opening day 2020 projection before the pandemic was $210.4M, 54.9 war)
Justin Verlander is under contract for 2021 and one of the 3 best pitchers in the world. The Astros are not dealing him if he is healthy, and if he isn't healthy no one will want him. Zach Greinke is under contract through 2021 as well, and leads the majors in FIP this year and so far in his career as an Astro has an era of 2.85. The Astros are not dealing him either. Reddick is a throw away player that has little value on the trade market and can easily be brought back if the Astros are inclined. Gurriel is a 36 year old first baseman that is good but not a star. No team is going to give up much for him in a trade, and he is someone that isn't likely to get a big contract in free agency. Brantley is remarkably similar to Gurriel in production and while he is a few years younger, he is getting close to full time DH duty. springer is the one that would hurt. The Astros also have a lot of younger players that appear able to fill the holes at little cost (Urquidy, Javier, etc).
There is no way I would pay Gurriel for a three year deal. And for the .only he will be asking for would be an insult to everyone looking to sign him. 36yrs old and qould be looking for his last payday. No way 15m+ a year..... Reddick should be sold away today. Its Tuckers job do or die. Brantley could net us some promising pieces to the pie with the way he is hitting. Springer might get us something decent as far as prospects. I'm looking at Ryan Mountcastle. To take over at First if we could nab him in a trade. The Orioles are surging. I would also look for another OFer or two and Pitching.
