Party-switcher puts Kansas Senate seat in play for Democrats Democrat Barbara Bollier, who left the GOP two years ago, is outraising GOP Rep. Roger Marshall as she expands Democrats' path to a Senate majority. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/20/party-switcher-kansas-senate-democrats-430272
This would really suck for the Rs, if the below polls are true. Georgia going blue? That sure sounds like a sucker's bet. We will see. On Tuesday, former vice president Biden made two stops in Georgia—a state where he holds the narrowest of edges in The New York Times aggregate and that is also fielding two competitive Senate races. In fact, Civiqs polling released Tuesday put Biden ahead by five points in Georgia while Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock both have a shot at breaking the 50% threshold and potentially avoiding a runoff to win the seat. Senate-A: Ossoff 51%, David Perdue 45% Senate-B (special): Warnock 48%, Doug Collins 23%, Kelly Loeffler 22%, Matt Lieberman 2%
I think this might be a bit too high on the Democrats but I think its fair to consider both toss ups. The big question will be what the runoff electorate looks like. Runoffs in Georgia always favored Republicans but this year could be different.
The ads have been interesting. Warnock's ads are great and pretty much always positive. Loeffler's ads are all about how about how conservative (and Trump supporting) she is and casts Doug Collins as some kind of Liberal working against Trump. Collins ads are about how Loeffler is just a liar. Ossoff's ads are a mixed bag of negative and positive ads. Perdue ads are pretty much just negative ads. And I get like 4 Jon Ossoff is a liberal monster mailers every single day.
Political ads are really the greatest advertisement ever made for Netflix and other ad-free streaming services.
Monmouth came out with a Georgia poll just now that largely mirrors this result so maybe this is more real than I thought. And Monmouth's previous polls in Georgia have tended to be more Republican leaning than average.
Unfortunately, I think a Biden victory will sort of be cathartic and like popping the air out of a balloon. I imagine if either race goes to a runoff, the energy on the Dem side will have dissipated.
Well we'll see. Normally I'd agree but if the suburban shift is supercharged this time, I'm not sure that will be the case. I actually feel somewhat comfortable in a Warnock vs Loeffler runoff. Loeffler has gone so far to the right that I think she might just get wiped out in the Atlanta suburbs and I think Warnock will get enough rural black turnout from Southwest Georgia. Now if Ossoff gets stuck in a runoff, then I'd be worried about him. In that case, I think there's a real chance that Atlanta suburban voters split their vote and vote for Warnock and Purdue.
Too bad this sitting senator isn't up for reelection... imagine the stones required to as a corporate executive if an employee was fired for criticizing her on social media?
This, BBS denizens, is an actual snowflake. She even literally looks like a snowflake. Being any public figure whining about unkind social media is pathetic. But then trying to use your elected position to somehow punish those who criticize you? She needs to move to Putin's Russia.
That is so above and beyond. So very very M A G A Why move to Russia? Trump is President. Retribution for slights is the name of the game.
This is quite a year with KS possibly in play. That said RCP still has KS as likely GOP with polls showing Marshall with a narrow lead. This is one of the things that is so frustrating about this year there are a lot of races in places where Democrats rarely win where they are within the margin of error of winning. Those states could possibly swing blue and this could look like 2008 but likely they remain red and it's even possible the Republicans still eke out a narrow majority.
I can see that but I also could see dems wanting to run up the score and there being a huge influx of money and organization going for the dem candidate. Will be interesting.
