2020 Hurricane Season

They have to go through a lot to get to Lambda Lambda Lambda

 

Clap your hands, everybody
And everybody clap your hands
We're Lambda Lambda Lambda and..
Omega Mu

"Not the Mu's! They're a bunch of pigs!"

"You Mu's sure know how to party!"

 

Atlantic Daily Briefing
Issued: 04:35 AM CDT Wednesday September 16, 2020




Active Systems

Paulette
Hurricane Paulette is about 400 miles southeast of Newfoundland with winds near 90 mph. It is expected to maintain this fast forward motion over the next 24 hours and transition to a extratropical low pressure area. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Sally
The eyewall of Hurricane Sally is now over the coast of Alabama. It is also starting to spread over the southwest Florida Panhandle. The worst of Hurricane Sally is occurring within this eyewall. Winds could gust over 120 mph within this eyewall. In addition, tidal surges are expected to cause significant damage to coastal structures. Sally will continue to move inland this morning bringing destructive winds, torrential rainfall and a high tidal surge. The worst of the weather will occur over southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Teddy
Hurricane Teddy is located about 740 miles east-northeast of Barbados with winds near 100 mph. Teddy is forecast to become a powerful hurricane as it passes well to the east and northeast of the Caribbean Sea. Teddy may threaten Bermuda with tropical storm conditions on Monday and Atlantic Canada later in the week. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Vicky
Tropical Storm Vicky is located about 640 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with winds near 50 mph. Vicky is forecast to more westward over the next few days and weaken to a remnant low pressure area over the next day or two. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 46 is located just off the west coast of Africa near 10N, 25W, or about 400 miles south of the Cabo Verge Islands. A general west-northwest track is expected over the next several days. It remains too early to determine whether or not it will make it as far west as the Caribbean. Impacts, if any, to the eastern Caribbean would not occur until over a week from now. The chance of tropical development remains near 60 percent.

Disturbance 38 continues to meander over the western Gulf of Mexico near 22N and 96W, or about 100 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico. It will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Conditions are forecast to become marginally favorable for development later this week. Movement is forecast to be slow and erratic over the next several days. The chance of tropical development has increased to 50 percent.

Disturbance 47 is a non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. The system could gradually become more tropical later this week as it tracks southward and then eastward. The chance of tropical development remains near 20 percent.

 

They should go phonetic instead of Greek:

Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, Foxtrot, Gulf...

 

[QUOTE="rimrocker, post: 13122152, member:

Gulf...[/QUOTE]

Golf

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_phonetic_alphabet

 

"Gulf". Would that be a Freudian slip? No....that denotes feelings. Slip of the keyboard?

Golf.

But "Gulf" works better for this. Hurricane Gulf would ironically (hopefully) just be an Atlantic fish storm.

 

Hey, if we got hit by Hurricane Golf, the gameshow host in chief might actually do his job.

 

Greece is actually about to receive a very rare Medicane with winds expected over 130 mph.

 

Yikes, good luck @malakas !

 

At least he can put away the Sharpie....that hurricane finally hit Alabama.*

*Not to make light of Hurricane Sally and Alabama being inundated.

 

Just saw that Teddy could strengthen to Cat 4 and a lot of tracks are showing it hitting New England..

 

Here's your daily hurricane calf scramble:


Atlantic Daily Briefing
Issued: 04:46 AM CDT Thursday September 17, 2020




Sally
Sally has weakened to a depression over eastern Alabama this morning. However the threat of flooding rainfall will continue through today as Sally moves to the northeast and transitions into a remnant low over Georgia and South Carolina. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Teddy
Hurricane Teddy is located about 650 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with winds near 105 mph. Teddy is forecast to become a powerful hurricane as it passes well to the east and northeast of the Caribbean Sea. Teddy will likely threaten Bermuda with hurricane conditions on Monday followed by an increasing risk for Atlantic Canada by next Wednesday. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Vicky
Tropical Storm Vicky is located about 790 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with winds near 40 mph. Vicky is forecast to continue moving west and transition into a remnant low pressure area later today. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Due to Technical Difficulties the Atlantic Daily Briefing Video Will be Delayed This Morning...

Disturbance 38 continues to meander over the western Gulf of Mexico near 22N and 95W, or about 170 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico. Satellite data this morning indicates thunderstorms are increasing over this region of the Gulf. There continues to be good model consensus that the disturbance will likely develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next day or two. However, there is no model agreement on the potential track. Most likely, it would track westward into Mexico, but it could be pulled northward early next week, possibly threatening the lower Texas coast as a tropical storm. If there remains good model agreement on development over the next 24 hrs, then we will likely initiate advisories later today. Development chances are estimated to be near 100 percent.

Disturbance 46 is located just off the west coast of Africa near 11N, 30W, or about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verge Islands. A general west-northwest track is expected over the next several days. It remains too early to determine whether or not it will make it as far west as the Caribbean. Impacts, if any, to the eastern Caribbean would not occur until over a week from now. Conditions remain marginally favorable and the risk of tropical development remains near 60 percent over the next week.

Disturbance 47 is a non-tropical area of low pressure located about 600 hundred miles east of the Azores. The system is forecast to move east towards Portugal over the next few days. The risk of tropical development has decreased to 10 percent.

 

Hurricane Center: Tropical depression or storm could form Thursday in Gulf of Mexico
https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_836ad296-f8d7-11ea-a3fe-83c9be85af93.html



The disturbance is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly north to northeast on Friday and Saturday.

 

Disturbance 38 Advisory 1
Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Thursday September 17, 2020



Current Location: 21.5N, 94.6W
Geographic Reference: Over the northern Bay of Campeche
Movement: North-northeast at 7 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 85 miles
Organizational Trend: Very Slowly Becoming Better Organized
Forecast Confidence: Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb

Development Chances: Near 100 percent

Key Points
1. There is considerable uncertainty in the precise track, but we are confident in a slow movement.
2. There is a potential hurricane risk to the south Texas coast, northeast Mexico, and the northwest Gulf.

Our Forecast
Disturbance 38 is very slowly becoming better organized in the northern Bay of Campeche this morning. There is now very good model support for development, though there is considerable uncertainty in its exact track over the coming week. One thing that the models agree on is that it will be moving rather slowly over the next 7 days.

To complicate the forecast will be a cold front that will be moving into the northwest Gulf over the next several days. This will drive a large amount of dry air down the coast of Mexico and into the developing low center. In fact, the low may become attached to the cold front this weekend. Such an interaction would slow down the strengthening process, at least initially. By next Tuesday or Wednesday, the frontal boundary across the northern Gulf should have dissipated, allowing the system to strengthen to a hurricane off the lower Texas coast.

Steering currents across the northwest Gulf should remain weak through next Thursday or Friday. Our forecast keeps the center of the storm offshore, which is in line with the model consensus, but it is quite possible that the center will move inland into south Texas or even northeastern Mexico next Tuesday or Wednesday. In the long term, the center could move inland anywhere from northeast Mexico to the Alabama coast. It is just too early to be confident in the long-term track.

There is one more possibility that we cannot rule out. It is slightly possible that the low will remain weak and will be accelerated northward up the cold front and into the northern Gulf coast early next week. The greatest threat from such a track would be increased rainfall along the northern Gulf coast next Monday or Tuesday.

Because of the increasing risk of a strong tropical storm or a hurricane off the lower Texas coast early next week, we will be going RPA positive for the lower Texas coast and offshore waters.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf: Squalls will reach the deepwater areas off the lower Texas coast on Saturday, meaning that Friday will be the last full day for any evacuations offshore.

Expected Impacts Onshore
South Texas: Squalls may reach the lower Texas coast early next week, but tropical storm-force winds should remain just offshore given the current forecast.

 

What does RPA positive mean?

 

Response Plan Activator. In other words, if the company or institution has a hurricane prep plan, time to activate for that area.

 

Looks like it's jogging farther north but still going to bust a u-ey and hit meh-he-co.

Disturbance 38 Advisory 2
Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Thursday September 17, 2020



Current Location: 22.3N, 94.5W
Geographic Reference: 200 miles east-northeast of Tampico
Movement: North-northeast at 6 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 85 miles
Organizational Trend: Very Slowly Becoming Better Organized
Forecast Confidence: Below Average
Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb

Development Chances: Near 100 percent

Key Points
1. There is considerable uncertainty in the precise track, but we are confident in a slow movement.
2. There is a potential hurricane risk to the south Texas coast, northeast Mexico, and the northwest Gulf.
3. No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

Our Forecast
Disturbance 38 continues to show signs of further organization as it drifts slowly north to north-northeast. We are confident that the system will develop into at least a tropical storm. We are also confident that the storm will meander slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. Otherwise, the forecast is quite uncertain. The lack of strong steering currents is resulting in a very low confidence in the expected future track. The confidence in the intensity forecast is also relatively low. Hurricane recon aircraft is heading to the storm now. It will be gathering valuable data that will be incorporated into future updates.

A cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico will complicate the forecast further. This will drive a large amount of dry air down the coast of Mexico and into the developing low center. In fact, the low may become attached to the cold front this weekend. Such an interaction would slow down the strengthening process, at least initially. By next Tuesday or Wednesday, the frontal boundary across the northern Gulf should have dissipated, allowing the system to strengthen to a hurricane off the lower Texas coast.

Steering currents are expected remain weak through at least the middle of next week and potentially as late as Thursday or Friday of next week. Our forecast keeps the center of the storm offshore, but it is quite possible that the center will move inland into south Texas or even northeastern Mexico sometime between Monday and Wednesday. In the long term, the center could move inland anywhere from northeast Mexico to the Alabama coast. It is just too early to be confident in the long-term track.

There is one more possibility that we cannot rule out. It is slightly possible that the low will remain weak and will be accelerated northward up the cold front and into the northern Gulf coast early next week. The greatest threat from such a track would be increased rainfall along the northern Gulf coast next Monday or Tuesday.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf: Squalls will reach the deepwater areas off the lower Texas coast on Saturday, meaning that Friday will be the last full day for any evacuations offshore.

Expected Impacts Onshore
South Texas: Squalls may reach the lower Texas coast early next week, but tropical storm-force winds would remain just offshore given the current forecast.