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“People are just not going to guard Russell Westbrook in the Playoffs”

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Asian Sensation, Jul 15, 2019.

  1. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    That may all be true, but isn't that precisely the point they were making in the video? It forces us to have the ball in Westbrook's hands to maximize his effectiveness, but Harden is far better in iso than any player in the league and miles ahead of Westbrook in that regard. Surrounding Westbrook with better shooters doesn't solve that problem that he can't shoot. In the crunch Harden and Westbrook will both have to be on the floor and Westbrook will affect spacing.
     
  2. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    To be clear he is still going to be a mediocre to terrible shooter next season, but this is due to WB's propensity to jack up some truly mind boggling shots. He is very much like Josh Smith in this regard. That said, he is a decent enough catch-and-shoot player where you can't just completely leave him alone when Harden has the ball either.

    The hope here is that by virtue of playing on the same team with another high usage player like Harden, he has the ball less and therefore has less opportunities to make those boneheaded plays as well as more energy to succeed on said boneheaded plays.
     
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  3. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    So this is where my opinion differs a bit. Westbrook having the ball means he is running PnR and ISO matchups. Like with CP3 the last 2 seasons, this means Harden gets to stand around and rest 25+ ft on the perimeter. Now if Harden has the ball and is playing point, I feel that WB has shown us with more than enough sample size that he is a decent enough catch-and-shoot player that he can punish the D more often than not if they sag off him to help on Harden. Of course, it remains to be see but this is my hope.
     
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  4. harold bingo

    harold bingo Udoka Only Fan
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    Last year in the first round of the playoffs against Portland. I've tried to find more clips of this happening but haven't really been able to, but I did find two articles that talked about it.

    https://deadspin.com/the-blazers-really-want-russell-westbrook-to-keep-shoot-1834216198
    https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...tions-get-interesting-westbrook-pg-ousted-okc

     
  5. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    This hasn't been the case playing next to Paul George for the past two years. Even though George was more efficient overall and in iso, Westbrook took far more shots on worse efficiency in the playoffs. In the first postseason together Westbrook took seven(!) more shots than George. This was the case even he was playing next to KD and Ibaka, who could space the floor better than OKC's current squad. He took more shots (per minute) than KD on worse efficiency. Westbrook wasn't efficient even with a better squad.

    I'm hoping for the best as well, but this is something the team will need to work through in their scheme, not pretend it isn't a problem at all.
     
  6. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    No one has said WB will suddenly become this efficient player. I certainly haven't. in fact, I have asserted the opposite multiple times. What I AM saying is that our offensive system and our personnel should help with his efficiency and that one of the key things people are concerned about (him playing off Harden when Harden has the ball) may not be as big of a concern as most think given the catch and shoot ability that WB has shown. At the end of the day, WB will still WB since that's what he does. Playing with another high usage player however means he will have less possessions where he is handling the ball. Less possessions => less chance for stupid decisions => hopefully higher efficiency.
     
  7. gmoney411

    gmoney411 Member

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    Harden likely has to play off the ball more with those lineups and I think that's a good thing. Let Harden rest off ball earlier in the game and then have him doing the ball handling more rested in the 4th. The small ball lineup is often the closing lineup.
     
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  8. jowman

    jowman Member

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    Windhorst is disgusting to look at. He’s the last guy that should be talking about Westbrook given his body can’t accomplish 1/10000 of what Westbrook can do.
     
  9. BreakYoSelfFool

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    I'm talking about Russell cutting to the basket without the ball, not James or Paul. Paul and James are 2 guys who don't play off the ball. First of all they neither really has the speed to get as open on cuts and neither of them gets the same cushion Westbrook does. Westbrook is a different kind of player, check the video I posted earlier. He scores regularly on give and goes and backdoor cuts. He isn't Reggie Miller or Rip Hamilton running off screens, but he will not let the defense ignore him. Especially knowing James will get him the ball if he gets by his man. Heck if Clint slipped to the basket more when the defense wasn't looking he could avg 20pts a game. James will have the ball in his hands and will continue to iso, and Westbrook will make the defense pay if they don't give him the proper amount of attention. And if they overreact to Westbrooks motion, Harden will bang a stepback in their face.
     
  10. DooghMaster9

    DooghMaster9 Member

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    this whole situation is where harden is gonna earn his money. hes gotta go in alpha male mode and gain control. hes the higher basketball iq player, hes mastered the rhythm of our style, and needs to be the guy, if he can manage to be the leader and westbrook goes all in then the sky is the limit. westbrook can still catch from 3 in the normal rhythm of our offense. if no one guards him he can collapse the D with a furious drive and dish it out to a more open floor with shooters ready, while occasionally taking it all the way to the hoop and occasionally attempting a 3. hes not the triple threat that harden is, but his attack is valid and gives a variability to our offense. his attack in our offense can nearly make him a triple threat too but in a different way. stagger the minutes, get russ out there with shooters, have 2 solid units that vary a bit in style, then have a death squad unit with harden and westbrook on the floor at the same time. we never have a hard time getting leads, but we do happen to lose them quite often, we get out of rhythm and play panicky. i think the russ unit might actually mitigate this if he accepts his role. he can attack the rim and dish until we regain our rhythm. if he simply doesnt overdue it trying to play hardens style and develops a more planned attack it could be scary. theres room for both styles. llet harden run the show when theyre both on the floor. i dont care what anyone says, our style is strong, and westbrook has the potential to fill some voids within it. if we can look at it from the perspective of maximizing strengths and using westbrook to fix problems we already have as opposed to changing the whole team dynamic than we are headed in the right direction.
     
  11. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    Westbrook's issue is the pullups, those kill him.

    If you're just going to leave him wide open, then he's going to hit enough shots to beat you.

    In last year's playoffs, WB shot 35.3% on wide open 3's. In the regular season he shot 32.6% on wide-open 3s.

    He also shot over 50% on drives in the playoffs.

    If you believe that Portland was leaving him unguarded, then it obviously wasn't working. Nobody is intentionally going to allow a guy to shoot 35% from the arc and still get to the rim. If a guy is hitting 35% when left wide open from behind the arc and still getting to the rim and scoring over 50% of the time, how is leaving him unguarded a good idea?

    Now look at pull up shooting, this is where it gets ugly.

    In the regular season, WB shot 31.4% on pullups and 26.4% on pullup three's. In the playoffs, his FG% on pullups went down to 26.8% overall and 20.0% on pullup threes. Those are the shots that you don't want him taking.

    It's not that Westbrook needs to start doing something that he's never done or possibly can't do. Instead, it's just a case of him needing to stop taking the crazy pullup shots.

    He's always gotten to the rim and scored well and he'll now see more spacing than he's ever had. He needs to continue to be aggresive in getting to the rim. If he just stops taking the wild pullup shots, then we should be fine. There's definitely things he can do within the offense, he just can't counteract them by taking a bunch of incredibly inefficient pullup shots.

    In our offense he'll get open looks (everyone does). In this year's playoffs, he shot 39.1% on catch and shoot 3s. Those are the 3s that he needs to take.

    The trick is going to be to get him to cut out the pullups, take the open 3s that he gets and be aggressive going to the rim. Anything else that you get in transition or put backs is even better.

    If he does that we'll be fine. The interesting thing is that we now have two guys who on a particular night can go nuclear and win the game for you.

    Westbrook has the skills and athleticism, he just has to reign in the bad attempts. In last year's playoffs, he was crazy good in the clutch, with a 87.2% TS% in the clutch (last 5 minutes of the game and score within 5). He can help you in many ways. I'm guessing that the Rockets plan to emphasize the things he does well and to try and reduce/eliminate the ineffient things that he does.
     
    #191 aelliott, Jul 16, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2019
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  12. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    We'll definitely have fun watching it play out next season. I'm just not encouraged about Westbrook's off-ball ability, shot selection, or decision making even playing next to Paul George and Kevin Durant. He shoots a lot no matter how the offense is structured around him. I expect his attempts to remain in the 18-20 range. I just hope those are mostly heading towards the rim.
     
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  13. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    The upside for us is that despite his poor overall shooting, he tends to lead his teams to more victories than not. He is certainly not Harden, but we aren't bringing him in to replace Harden either. Either way, I completely agree that this season will be a fun one.
     
  14. Deckard

    Deckard Blade Runner
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    Really good post, @aelliott. 39% on catch and shoot 3's? If he's not covered, the opposing team has gone crazy! I bet we see that % increase during the regular season with the open looks he'll have, but I don't know how well he did in that department before the playoffs last year. Be interesting to know. Also like the major bump in his FT percentage in the playoffs. He's going to love playing for us, in my opinion. Regardless, Russell being clutch in the playoffs, and he has a proven history there, should be huge for us. The more you dig into his game before the deal, the more interesting his addition looks for the Rockets.
     
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  15. UTAllTheWay

    UTAllTheWay Member

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    From the ESPN article harold bingo posted:

    Russell, when you have a night like this, where you shoot the way that you did, do you change anything, or do you continue to do what you've been doing, considering the defense they were running at you?

    "Change what?" Westbrook said.

    Do you change the way you approach your shooting...?

    "Have I changed in 11 years?" Westbrook interrupted, staring back.


    This is the crap that drives me insane about him. The reporter asked a legitimate question and his answer was "Have I changed in 11 years?"

    It makes me wonder what's going to happen at the end of games when James gets tired of watching Westbrook shoot bad shots and he has to tell him "Enough BS, let me handle the ball."

    I would like to think they have a good enough relationship that James could do it, but it's tough to tell right now.

    However, I was all for the trade. I think he can help us get over the hump, but he HAS to be willing to adjust, otherwise it will be doomed from the start.
     
    #195 UTAllTheWay, Jul 16, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2019
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  16. harold bingo

    harold bingo Udoka Only Fan
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    My ONLY hope here is that he's in a new system, new city, new coach, new everything. In the past it's always been moving pieces around him but the constant was that he was in OKC and it was their way of doing things. I'm hoping that being added to a new team that already has everything in place, with a new coach and new front office, maybe he'll be more willing to shift his game around.
     
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  17. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Like @aelliot and others (including myself) have mentioned, it's mainly his propensity for jacking up terrible shots off the dribble that kills his efficiency and a big part of that just comes from poor shot selection and decision making. Personally, I don't expect that to change. I do expect Harden and MDA to take the ball out of WB's hands more when that happens though.
     
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  18. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    That 39.1% was only over 5 games. In the regular season he shot 32% on catch and shoot 3s and 35.4% on Spot up shots. If he hits at even those rates, then we're fine.

    I do think that he'll have many more driving opportunities than ever before. Hopefully, he pushes the ball and gets out and runs with Capela some. He's also going to get his share of rebounds and he will draw defenders and pass.

    That being said, I wan't too thrilled with the trade. WB can do things to help but I would have preferred it if we could have acquired a players with some size that could have helped us in other areas. Maybe that wasn't possible.

    For me, Westbrook adds to our strongest postion (backcourt). I was hoping for some front court help.

    Nothing is ever as black and white as posters here think. He's not going to kill our offense and he doesn't immediately make us the favorites for a title. The reality is somewhere in between. Hopefully, the deal still hasn't been finalized because we're rolling in an additonal player. That could be big.

    Harden is going to do his thing. He's not going to suddenly start playing off the ball and running off screens. That's not what he does. Harden will still be ball dominant but not as much as last season...that was going to be the case even if CP3 were still here. There's a lot of possessions in an NBA game. Both WB and Harden will run the offense at times. WB played with a teammate that took the 2nd most shots in the league last season, it's not going to be that big of a change playing with Harden.
     
  19. aelliott

    aelliott Contributing Member

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    Nice post by one of my favorite posters.
     
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  20. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

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    RW reminds of that open gym player that you tactically gas up so he can shoot his broke jumper. "I bet you can't shoot from there" or "I'm giving you that 3" and they fall for it cause you know they can beat off the dribble at any point.
     

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