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[ESPN INsider] Harden ranked top SG

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by mollamar, Jan 6, 2014.

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tehG l i d e Member

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RRockets said: ↑

Harden is a SG, but he also plays like a PG. Does this contribute to his high ranking?
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He plays like a PG but his assist/turnover ratio is pretty awful.

#21 tehG l i d e, Jan 6, 2014

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pippendagimp said: ↑

that is the weakest crop of SG's i've seen since following the nba
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Just about to say the same thing.:grin:

#22 muas2010, Jan 6, 2014
hamsession Member

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J.R. said: ↑

NBA's top 10 SGs for 2013-14

Last summer, when NBA teams were putting the finishing touches on their 2013-14 rosters, I ranked the league's players by position. Those numbers were based on forecasts for the season now nearing its halfway point, and were generated by ATH, my projection system based on aging curves, athletic indicators and player trait matching. One of the themes of the series was how quickly things change in sports, and sure enough, much has been altered over the past 5.5 months.

This week, we'll be running an in-season update of the rankings. The summer shooting guard rankings can be found here. Each player's "TrueWARP" calculation -- a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results -- is noted, along with their 2013-14 WARP and their league-wide rank in WARP for the season to date.

Because we're extrapolating from a half-season of real results, the methodology was a little bit different from our forecast-based summer rankings. See the explainer at the end of the article for how these rankings were derived.

1. James Harden, Houston Rockets
TrueWARP: 14.4 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.7 | Overall WARP rank: 13

Any concerns about whether Harden would have trouble integrating with Dwight Howard have been answered, as he's responded with a virtual repeat of his breakout 2012-13 season. Harden is still the No. 1 option in Houston, and he has surpassed Dwyane Wade for the top spot in our rankings at the 2-guard spot. Harden's 3-point percentage is about 4 percent under his career mark, so there is a strong likelihood that the second half of his campaign will be even stronger than his first.

2. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
TrueWARP: 12.5 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.4 | Overall rank: 37

You don't get the feeling that Wade and his two-time champion teammates have put the pedal to the metal just yet, so there is a chance he could retake the top spot before the next set of summer rankings come around. Wade has sat out on occasion to rest his ailing knees, which has dragged down his bottom-line value. He has been more passive, but that might be by design.

3. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 8.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.7 | Overall rank: 27

Not much has changed for Ginobili, who is again playing just 23 to 24 minutes per game, but is making it count when he gets on the floor. He's shooting the ball better than he did last season, but has been far less apt to attack the basket. As has been the case for several years, the Spurs are more interested in what Ginobili can offer in the postseason, and there is little to suggest he can't turn it up when the games really begin to count.

4. Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 7.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.8 | Overall rank: 24

The addition of a strong set of role players helped to boost the Trail Blazers into contention, but just as important has been the rapid climb of Matthews into a bona fide third wheel to go with LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Matthews is having his best season shooting the ball, and is now one of the NBA's top long-range threats. His true shooting percentage ranks fourth in the league among qualifying players.

5. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
TrueWARP: 7.4 | 2013-14 WARP: Minus-0.2 | Overall rank: 323

For Bryant, it's all about the career. His non-value for this season is not enough to undermine his established baseline, but obviously the negative WARP Bryant put up in six games before getting injured again is scary.

6. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
TrueWARP: 6.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.1 | Overall rank: 75

Korver was ninth in the small forward rankings over the summer, but he has been used mostly as a shooting guard under coach Mike Budenholzer. Either way, his job is to shoot and no one does it better. Korver's .651 effective field goal percentage leads the league, and his true shooting percentage (.664) is a career-best.

7. Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
TrueWARP: 5.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.5 | Overall rank: 61

As the Jazz have shed veteran players the past couple of years, Hayward has increasingly taken on the alpha role in the Utah offense. His efficiency has tumbled in the process, but his volume increase is enough to push up his bottom-line value. Hayward's floor game has blossomed, especially in terms of assist rate. As Utah acquires better scoring options, Hayward should hopefully be better equipped to provide a higher-percentage style of offense.

8. Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
TrueWARP: 5.6 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.6 | Overall rank: 102

Butler has struggled with his shooting, but has increased his usage rate in his first season as a full-time starter. Butler's 3-point stroke will probably always come and go, but he can really enhance his value by finishing better at the hoop. As is, his most valuable offensive asset remains his ability to attack the lane and get to the line. On defense, Butler has surpassed Luol Deng as the Bulls' top perimeter stopper, and he's one of the best in the league.

9. Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 5.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.1 | Overall rank: 76

Green's greatest virtue is consistency and given the variability inherent to 3-point shooting, it's a trait that serves a specialist well. Green has lost a few minutes, and a few possessions, to new Spur Marco Belinelli.

10. Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves
TrueWARP: 5.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.6 | Overall rank: 96
Martin again lands at No. 10 in the shooting guard rankings. After taking on a lower-volume role in Oklahoma City, Martin is basically replicating the offensive stat line he featured in Houston. Playing alongside Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love, he doesn't have the ball in his hands quite as much, but he has been more aggressive off the dribble when it comes his way.

Next five: Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks; Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors; Louis Williams, Atlanta Hawks; Marcus Thornton, Sacramento Kings; Mike Dunleavy Jr., Chicago Bulls

Ellis and Thompson have both shot up the rankings since the summer. Ellis has replaced many of his bad 3-point attempts with drives to the basket, and he's thriving in Dallas. Thompson has been much more efficient inside the arc, and his defensive profile is beginning to live up to his reputation.

Also notable: Lance Stephenson, Indiana Pacers (17); Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans (18); Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards (25); Joe Johnson, Brooklyn Nets (26); Iman Shumpert, New York Knicks (31)

Stephenson is having his best season by far, but he's still dragged down by his replacement-level first three seasons in the league. As is, Stephenson's 15.0 PER is exactly league average, and he probably has more value to the Pacers than he would have on another team. Gordon is having a solid season, but on the guard-rich Pelicans roster, he's taking on less of the load. Gordon's usage rate is down 6.5 percent from last season. Beal was forecast to be one of this season's breakout players and while he has shown flashes, he has done little overall to augment his great 3-point shooting.
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Where is DeRozan and Tyreke Evans?

#23 hamsession, Jan 6, 2014
hubeijames Member

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As flawed as Harden is, there really isn't any question that he's the best SG in the league. Mostly this is because of the league's weakness at the 2. Kobe, Wade and Ginobli are the only ones really close to his level, but they're dinosaurs, and the gap is only going to get wider. Take the old guys out and you're comparing Harden to Afflalo, Ellis, Korver, etc, guys Harden is clearly two or three rungs higher than.

#24 hubeijames, Jan 6, 2014
mollamar Contributing Member

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muas2010 said: ↑

Just about to say the same thing.:grin:
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Ditto

#25 mollamar, Jan 6, 2014
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You can take the same set of the data, come up with a completed different ranking.

The data is static, it's how you interpret it.

#26 daoshi, Jan 6, 2014
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tallanvor said: ↑

poor Monta. Having his best season and stats guys still hate him.
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yep. but it's ESPN, Doc's comment is a good fit here: "I would call it idiot but I am too classy".

#27 cn0gd, Jan 6, 2014

Rasselas Contributing Member

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J.R. said: ↑

NBA's top 10 SGs for 2013-14

Last summer, when NBA teams were putting the finishing touches on their 2013-14 rosters, I ranked the league's players by position. Those numbers were based on forecasts for the season now nearing its halfway point, and were generated by ATH, my projection system based on aging curves, athletic indicators and…"
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What are "Aging curves?" Like.. Angelina Jolie and Pamela Anderson?

#28 Rasselas, Jan 6, 2014
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cn0gd said: ↑

yep. but it's ESPN, Doc's comment is a good fit here: "I would call it idiot but I am too classy".
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Doc's comment is r****d. He just did what he said he was too classy to do!!!! DAMMIT DOC!!!

#29 Panda23, Jan 6, 2014
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he's playing PG SG now. why put him in the SG list???

#30 Kiddsir, Jan 6, 2014
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Sounds about right. Only 13th best in league because sg is a weak position right now. Based on his GM rating earlier in the year (was he sixth overall?), he's been under-performing.

#31 JBar, Jan 6, 2014
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Kiddsir said: ↑

he's playing PG SG now. why put him in the SG list???
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So you're not glad he is ranked #1 SG?

#32 Pete the Cheat, Jan 6, 2014
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Pete the Cheat said: ↑

So you're not glad he is ranked #1 SG?
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i am not glad his all star voting is behind our bench player Lin. at least he's top 5 SG in this league.

#33 Kiddsir, Jan 6, 2014

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pippendagimp said: ↑

that is the weakest crop of SG's i've seen since following the nba
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Yah I think harden is the best SG only because all others are terrible

#34 Karolik, Jan 6, 2014
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tehG l i d e said: ↑

He plays like a PG but his assist/turnover ratio is pretty awful.
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He doesn't play like a PG. He plays like a SG that creates shots. Every star SG in NBA history had poor Ast/TO ratios relative to PGs. If you want to use Assist/TO ratio, Jordan Farmar's better than Micheal Jordan.

#35 meh, Jan 6, 2014
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Ellis and harden have same stats and % , affallo not mentioned? Wade having monster year and only SG shooting over 50% from field , harden wildly inconsistent on offense and defense. Espn seems to give him the honor by default.

#36 chandlerbang21, Jan 6, 2014
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pippendagimp said: ↑

that is the weakest crop of SG's i've seen since following the nba
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For the past decade or so, SG has been the weakest (read: least efficient) of the five positions. Sure it's been top-heavy with Kobe and Wade, but then what? Sixth man Ginobili? TMac's last good year was about 8yrs ago too. Just as a function of the position, with all the spot up shooting and playmaking with the clock winding down, it's natural that SG will have the worst efficiency of them all.

#37 Spacemoth, Jan 6, 2014
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Harden should be ranked w/ the PGs given he's the biggest ball dominant player on the Rox. Would you really consider Lin a PG whenever he plays w/ Harden in the same lineup?

#38 RocketPowerNick, Jan 6, 2014

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Imagine OKC could have tops for 1, 2, 3 and a top 5 for 4.

#39 YallMean, Jan 6, 2014
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Krover is 6? Wow. What's wrong the SG spot in NBA. NBA used to be filled with great SGs, Jordan, Clyde ...

#40 YallMean, Jan 6, 2014

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