I like the idea of outfielders with range with the young core of pitchers. So while Profar wasn't on my radar, he definitely fits what I think they should want when not looking at star players. Jackie Bradley, Jr. is another that fits this type of OF. Defense is better than Profar's, but bat is probably in Profar's favor. JBJ is more a known quantity so he may be more expensive.
I keep reading Brantley might get a 3 year $45 mil type deal. I would think that would be fair right?
The issue with Bradley is how much defense is he going to be able to play? We don't have room at DH for him and CF really has to be the #1 priority this offseason for the Astros.
That’s about what I would’ve expected him to get prior to the pandemic. The free agent market is very hard to predict because we don’t know how much money teams will spend. We could see a near total collapse of payrolls around the league, with teams non-tendering really good arbitration eligible players and not spending any money on free agents. In that scenario Brantley is the type of 2nd tier, defensively limited, aging player whose market would be especially affected. It is hard for me to even come up with what I think they should offer him.
They may keep Correa at this point, they just aren’t keeping everyone and it comes down to balancing money and needs.
Do you think giving him the QO is worth it? I’d think a 1 year $18 million deal with the potential to get a pick if he doesn’t take it would be worthwhile for the Astros.
It’s a tough call. There is not too much downside in offering Brantley a one year deal at $19M, with the upside of another stellar year from him or a draft pick. But if the free agent market collapses, there could be some very good values available. For example, what if the market collapses and no team is offering Springer the $150M+ deal he wants? He may then be willing to circle back to the Astros for the QO amount. Or what if 2nd and 3rd tier guys like Profar or Marvell Ozuna or Kevin Gausman end up having to sign for peanuts? Houston committing the bulk of their available funds committed to Brantley carries the risk of not being able to fill other holes or take advantage of depressed prices.
Agree - especially with Springer. The problem is we have to make a decision on Brantley way out in front of knowing the market.
Players have 10 days to accept or reject a qualifying offer. I doubt Springer signs that fast with us or another team. He will reject it and hit free agency. So him exploring the market and then circling back to the qualifying offer is not really possible.
I could see a lot of possible 1 year deals, regardless of QO acceptance... while players may stand to make more per year starting in 2022 after MLB regains some revenues as well as a new CBA gets put in place that possibly leads to more team-friendly revenue sharing models. Throw a player option year in just in case somebody is worried that they’ll bottom out, or get hurt, and hinder their chance of a bigger deal in 2022.
I would think you offer both Springer and Brantley QO's. If you end up with both of them back for a combined $40MM on 1yr deals, you jump for joy - you get an upgraded version of your 2020 offense back (+Alvarez, -Reddick) and don't have any new long term commitments. You have to replace Reddick anyway, so you go with an outfield of Brantley/Springer/Tucker. Alvarez hasn't proven to stay healthy and seems to have chronic knee issues, so it's possible Brantley would end up DHing part of the season anyway.
Even in a worst case scenario I don't see Springer settling for a one year deal lower than his 2019 salary at 21 million. Also, he's going to be 32 during the 2021 post season. Signing a one year deal and waiting until the following year makes little sense for him. Nobody knows the future regarding Covid. He will take the best long term contract he can get. I don't think guys like Realmuto, Springer, and LeMahieu are going to have problems getting paid. Maybe not what they would have gotten without Covid but enough that risking a 1 year deal makes no sense. Mets will have the richest owner in baseball and he's worth 3 or 4 times the next richest owner. They might not have to worry as much about the covid impact. I expect them to pay at least one guy a lot of money.
The thing I'm considering is Springer and Brantley are gone. Why not offer the Mets James and McCullers for Conforto? Offer Correa a 5yr deal and if he bits then we are good if not trade him for some high end Prospects. Grienke offer him and extention and make it budget friendly like 20 to 25 m per but put the incentives in it. Just have opt outs on age and Injury. He would understand. U can try the same with Verlander. If Grienke doesn't go for it ship him aswell more high end proapects
Brantley had about as great a defensive year as could be expected this season. He had plenty of rest at the DH and generally played in smaller LFs. One should not expect opposing batters to continue not to hit bloops down the line against him exposing his lack of a top gear. Hard hit ball right near place where Astros front office thinks a ball is likely to be hit such that positioning and good reaction are all that is important....Brantley is your man. He is likely more valuable as a DH going forward. His bat will still make him worth a QO even in LF. However, for Astros it also slides Tucker to RF which weakens the defense a little as range is more important in left (Tucker's strong suit) and arm is more important in right. For an OF, Astros should be able to get a cheaper option than a QO that helps just as much as Brantley in the OF. Defense costs less (less predictable as aging can affect it severely, and bats can play down the defensive spectrum more easily such as Brantley being a valuable DH when normally a LF) and Astros look to have a lot of opportunities for outs in the OF going forward. I don't think Astros want to pay $18 million for a backup DH and part-time OF when they need 2 full-time OFs even though Brantley will be worth the money in a normal economic situation.
I dug into other teams farms to see who might fit the “high ceiling undervalued prospect” mold Tampa has been so good at acquiring, to see who might be a low cost OF solution. There are probably 35-40 near-MLB-ready OF prospects who other teams might not value or have room for, but here are the ones that stood out: Micker Adolfo, White Sox #9 prospect Blake Rutherford, White Sox #13 Monte Harrison, Marlins #10 Akil Baddoo, Twins #13 Lazaro Armenteros, As #18 Mickey Moniak, Phillies #12 Jorge Ona, Padres #20 Jake Fraley, Mariners #9 Luis Basabe, Giants #18 Justin Williams, Cardinals #17 Josh Lowe, Rays #10 Steele Walker, Rangers #12 White Sox, Marlins, Twins, A’s, and Giants have deep groups of upper level OF prospects who might be had in exchange for the 2nd tier pitching prospects the Astros can afford to part with. I trust Click and co to mine that arena and come away with a good player.
The reason I trust Click is very simple. I trust Crane's ability to hire exceptional people. He's done it in every walk of his business career.
