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What if trump wins but loses the popular vote by 8% or so

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Air Langhi, Oct 21, 2020.

  1. Major

    Major Member

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    There's no realistic scenario where Biden loses TX by 1% and simultaneously loses MI/WI/PA/FL/AZ/etc. If he's that close in places like TX, he wins those other states. Voting in each state isn't completely independent of voting in other states. For example, there's might be some crazy scenario where Trump wins CA, but he'll never also TX or FL in that crazy outcome. Even if you ignore all the voting trends from 2017-2020 and go with a theoretical "All of Biden's appeal is with latinos, so he gains ground in TX but doesn't gain anywhere else", he still gets FL. But in reality, his appeal has increased with seniors, suburban voters, and women relative to Clinton (and not actually with Latino or Black voters). Those groups exist everywhere, so it's impossible for Biden to gain 7% nationally while gaining 0% in all of the random states Trump won by less than 2%.

    There's a MUCH higher likelihood of Biden dropping out of the race or getting COVID or dying or whatnot than there is that Biden wins by 10% AND loses the EC. It's not an outcome that should be driving anyone to go out and vote.

    Absolutely - the "Trump wins" outcome is largely based on replicating 2016 but with higher turnout. We already know from 2018 that Dem turnout will surge. Trump's path to victory is there being a ton of people who love Trump but didn't vote in 2016 or 2018 but come out this year. Anythiing short of that is a loss. But if Biden wins the popular vote by 10%, that will not have happened.
     
    FranchiseBlade likes this.
  2. AleksandarN

    AleksandarN Member

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    Hey look it’s limp bizket. Let me guess you are always last to the bizket.

    Keep trollin' trollin' trollin' trollin'
     

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