Biden leads Trump. So did Hillary Clinton. For Democrats, it’s a worrisome campaign deja vu

attributable to Russians IRL's misinformation campaign targeting blacks.

in 2020, Russians have outsourced the misinformation dirty work to West African hackers

https://www.washingtonpost.com/

 

I believe turnout declined because of the candidates and thats not simply Obama being black. Sanders has his following and Clinton really has no following

Trump at least solidified tbe Republican base. Also in the general he was the populist candidate in an election ripe for a populist

 

POLL: RACE TIGHTENS TO 3 POINTS!!!

https://www.investors.com/news/trum...ns-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/

 

Early returns in Florida favor Trumps significantly. Democrats need a +650,000 vote advantage heading into election day to have a shot, and as of now, it looks like they are far short. Actual voting data by party in Miami-Dade and Sumter counties do not show enough strength for Democrats. It's why we've seen a big move towards Trump in the betting markets in FL in the last 2 days.

 

Clinton had a pretty strong female following and for some reason, a strong Hispanic following. Biden does NOT have a strong Hispanic following, particularly among males. Biden was very weak in the primaries with the Hispanic vote. To my surprise, the immigration point has not been made very forcefully by the Democrats during this cycle... I figured we'd see "kids in cages" over and over on commercials... even though they were Obama's cages. Because of this, I can see AZ, NV, and even CO and NM as being stronger for Trump than people are predicting currently.

 

My opinion on immigration is that it was the biggest factor in Trump winning Reagan Democrats and like i said during the detention center outrage, Democrats won't win those voters back. Those voters support the detention centers

 

Biden's odds to win the Presidency have actually gone up the last 24 hours or so.......

 

Why worry about running commercials with kids in cages when Trump gives new ammunition nearly every day....... plus the democrats only need to bring up COVID or the thousands of times Trump has been caught lying.

At this point it isn't about kids in cages or anything else.... you either like Trump or you don't, and in a few weeks we will see which way the American people want to go.

 

Other polls conducted at the same time such as the NYT / Sienna and Economist / YouGov still show Biden with about an 8% lead.

 

Race tightens to 8 POINTS!!!!!


Biden needs to top iso-ing Harden to run the clock down and take some BS 3 at the end of the shot clock!

 

The fact that red states like Georgia are even close is a huge problem. It's like if Rondo is shooting and hitting threes you know you're about to have a really long and frustrating night.

This little chart is from NYT but it summarizes what Trump is dealing with.


Biden is going to lose a few of these close states to be sure. Georgia, Texas, Florida, sure I could see him losing those states...but if he wins Ohio? PA? NC? It's over and done with giving what we know now. There are so many paths to victory for Biden that I think we're going to know night 1 how the election is going.

 

I think he shouldn't bring in Josh James to pitch the 8th but instead get Pressley in for a 6 out save.

 

VERY unscientific poll, but just driving around Kingwood I'm seeing TONS of Biden signs. And even more shocking than that are all the Sima signs I'm seeing.

4 years ago, there were nothing but Trump signs. And 2 years ago nothing but Crenshaw signs.

 

Don't screw up on the 1 yard line!

 

Calling it now. Biden Takes Texas. If that happens, Trump has no shot to win.

 

2016 ptsd I know but let’s not overthink this.

As already mentioned there were 3 major differences in 2016.

1. Hate for Hillary. I knew plenty of moderates who didn’t vote for Trump they voted against Hillary. I have never seen a politician hated THAT much. Not even Trump now.

2. Voter apathy. Many people myself included skipped the polls in 2016 because we wanted Bernie not Hillary. We never thought Trump would beat her. Well we were wrong and we, myself included have been damn sure voting early this year.

3. Populism. People love to hear an outsider rail against the government. But now he’s no longer an outsider. He’s a dirty, filthy, politician like all the rest. But who has also presided over millions losing their jobs and thousands their lives. How exactly did he MAGA? Wall paid by Mexico? Obamacare repealed and replaced? Thousands of shiny new coal jobs?

In 2016 we were all surprised by the silent majority swinging the election to the right. This time we will be surprised how far off the polls are the other direction. It will be a much bigger win than 8%. Just keep the faith and vote.

 

I think reasonable independent voters can agree that Biden taking in millions of dollars through his son from foreign countries is disqualifying. This is the type of corruption that makes people sour on lifetime politicians like Biden.