Hypothetical: Nov 4th, 2020 - Jan 20th, 2021 - After a Trump Loss

As I've been saying I fully expect all sorts of stuff to happen between election day and Inauguration and it's one reason why I continue to say we shouldn't relax. There still exist a possibility Trump wins it outright. It's a shrinking possibility but one that can't be ignored for reasons stated in other threads.

I think it is inevitable that Biden wins the popular vote and it will be larger than Clinton's. What will mater though is how close the electoral college is and by what margins swing states like FL, AZ, WI, NC and PA are won by. FL with both a Republican legislature and very pro-Trump governor I think will be ground zero for stuff. I think on the days leading up to the election we will see intimidation at polls as pro Trump "poll watchers" heed the President's call to go and watch out for fraud. There will be things like polling sites being moved, closed early or other things making it harder to vote. We've already seen some of this.

Following election day I doubt there will be a clear winner for at least a few days as absentee ballots are counted. We are likely to see the lead shift in several states as votes come in I suspect you will see protests sort of similar to the anti-lockdown protests at vote counting sites and intimidation of people counting the votes. There might be counter protests too and I think violence at polling places and vote counting is very possible. There will be calls to stop counting ballots at certain points. There will be several lawsuits to get mail-in and provisional ballots rejected along with a lot of claims of fraud. State courts will be involved but it's likely that this will get to the Federal courts including the USSC.

This less likely but still possible is that voting and vote counting in some states, I'm looking at FL, get so chaotic and muddy that the state legislature steps in and either calls for a halt of counting and certifies a winner even though not all ballots are counted or says that their state election is so messed up that they decide to issue their own electors. In states like WI with a split between legislature and Governor it's possible two slates of electors are assigned leaving it up to courts to decide which ones are valid.

This is very unlikely but at this point not ruling anything out. Due to chaos in counting and certification no clear winner is determined and it goes to Congress. Under the Constitution the House of Representatives votes but it's not majority of House Members but one vote per state. At that point it will be critical to see if the Democrats can flip over at least two state delegations as they will be sworn in before inauguration.

During this whole time I expect Trump to be claiming that the vote was rigged, he won the election and telling his supporters to go out into the streets so the election can't be stolen from him.

A lot of what happens will really depend on how large the margin is and not just in the overall popular vote. A true landslide both in the actual vote and Electoral College will make it much harder to challenge and the best hope for this country is a landslide.

 

To add if Trump has lost and it is certified I think there is almost no chance he can stay in office. He might try to call upon the DOJ and the military but I don't think they will just go along with Trump out of personal loyalty. I don't think he will actually be dragged out kicking and screaming. If it's clear he's lost I bet his family will step in to convince him to leave with at least a little dignity.

 

We all know the worse case is Trump enabling militias to do basically anything. I don't think it'll result to anything other than the FBI thwarting some psycho attempt or some mass shooting (which are harder nowadays thanks to Covid) but it is hard to imagine Trump going out without a fuss.

I think there will be a dominant victory by the Democrats and Trump will flee the country and leave Pence to deal with it. I can't really see him having a future if the loss is bad. People think he's going to run a network but why would anyone on the right be behind him? They will jump ship faster than they ever did George W and turn on him the very moment he loses.

You're already seeing it now as the GOP starts to realize this might be very bad on them, they are whispering in calls about him, insulting him behind his back...

They didn't like him in the beginning, warned he would destroy their party (and he has) and the only reason they have stuck behind him is because they thought the people were behind him. Once it's clear that's not the case, Trump won't have many allies at Fox, in the GOP, and his only fans will be the people that were in his cult.

So I think his only option will be to go elsewhere. He won't have many friends left here. I hope he knows how to speak Russian.

 

I am also starting to think Trump leaving the country is more and more likely. He's currently shielded from a lot of his legal problems but all of those will come back against him once he's not President. There are likely going to be many others looking to charge and sue him for actions as President. He might want to leave the country just to get away from those.

 

Also if Trump loses and resigns before Jan. 21st that might not be a bad thing. Leaving it to Pence to handle the transition might be better for the country. If Pence does pardon Trump he will only be able to do so for Federal charges. Also I still believe that a Biden admin. will have little stomach for prosecuting Trump.

 

Speaking of worst case scenarios I don't think we can ignore the possibility of Trump winning and the Republicans retaining the Senate. I don't think a second term Trump will be able to accomplish much legislatively as the I think there is far less chance of the Republicans retaking the House than of Trump winning reelection. What I fear will happen is that a victorious Trump might be even more vindictive and especially towards states that voted against him. We saw the Federal government quarrel and undermine states regarding COVID-19 and we could see more like that. Whether Barr is there or not we will see the DOJ being bent more as a tool of the White House. We already saw the DOJ being used to defend Trump against a sexual harassment case and it wouldn't surprise me if you see the DOJ being used to defend Trump and even family members like Ivanka and Jared.

We will also continue to see the US government being used to benefit Trump family interests. It wouldn't surprise me if since Trump has many loans that are going to come due during the second term if Trump made the argument that the banks couldn't put him in default as that would be a national security threat or even so far as trading policies for loan forgiveness.

 

I expect him to go to a non-extradition country, resign there, and Pence to take over - and maybe pardon him.

DD

 

I don't think trump can spell dignity and certainly doesn't possess any. My personal opinion is that he'll flee the country close to inauguration day.

 

Pence can’t protect trump from SDNY

 

It will be a very dangerous, unhinged couple of months. He will attempt to do as much damage as possible. Hopefully he just quits and leaves early so the criminal prosecutions can begin..

 

Actually he can since that's a federal district court.

 

My bad. The SDNY can refer their case to the state can’t they?

 

Trump will extradite Hunter Biden to gitmo and start chanting to lock all the Dems up

 

There is no way the intelligence and military community would ever let Trump leave the country. As President, he has been privy to all kinds of state information and secrets, and to allow him to leave would be a massive security risk. There’s a reason every President remains under Secret Service watch for the remainder of their lives and it isn’t just their own protection.

 

I think it will be similar to the other transitions without that dirty stuff obama did. I am sure he won't mind spending his last few years away from the media although they will still be yapping at him.

 

He buys OANN and 30% of this country continues to be annoying as Fck for another year or so.

 

What dirty stuff? My echo chamber said Obama warn Trump about Flynn.

 

I don’t think DJT has ever spent a few years away from the media, and he won’t stop his own yapping next year, win or lose. His yapping begets all the media attention, not vice versa and he craves it, based on all evidence.