Biden leads Trump. So did Hillary Clinton. For Democrats, it’s a worrisome campaign deja vu

too many things are different from 2016...Trump is done...only things I’m wondering about are if it will be a landslide, if we’ll really sink so low to the point where the president is refusing to leave office, and if right wing domestic terrorists will try anything before or immediately after the election

Biden isn’t anywhere close to being as unpopular or untrustworthy as Hillary

enthusiasm and voter turnout will be high just due to anti-Trump sentiment alone...there are also far less undecided voters

Trump has to defend his presidential performance, and it’s been sh*t, especially when talking about the coronavirus

last time I checked, Trump was losing the senior vote by 20+ points, and he won that demographic handily back in 2016...things are so bad for the GOP right now that they’re worried about losing TX...that’s almost like Democrats being worried about losing California

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

VS

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

To quote the famous philosopher Taj Mahal " If you ain't scared, you ain't right"

 

Biden's likability numbers are better than Hilary's. Hilary may have led in polling but she was a bad candidate. Biden is more likable.

 

Would you rather have Biden behind in the polls?

As I said before, I sure hope that Biden doesn’t go 0 for 27 on 3s and Scott Foster isn’t moderating the final debate.

 

Hillary saw a huge bump after access Hollywood but it wasn’t sustained and only went into election night up 2 points and she ended up slightly overperforming at 3 points.

If Biden is sustaining 7-8 points even with no access Hollywood type of horrible Trump news or more likely the horrible news just doesn’t impact the race anymore, then it’s likely he’s going to still be overperforming Hillary regardless and Trump barely won in 16.

But it’s all about state polls of course. It’s still going to be about winning three battleground states... namely Michigan, Penn, and Wisconsin. You can lose one of those too if you pickup Arizona. If you can find a way to win Florida on election night it’s checkmate.

So we’ll just have to watch the votes come in on election night and at 7pm cst that night we’ll have 70% of Florida counted and we’ll know pretty quick if Biden is different or if we really are that polarized and misinformed.

But yes I have 2016 ptsd too like all of us. I see the signs the electorate and the media especially have learned nothing, and I’m concerned about the polls we might see this week and concerned we might be right back to a 2 point Dem lead in the polls on election night.

 

Media treatment for dismissing Hillary's weaknesses and amplifying Trump's attention generating chaos was one of the blights of 2016.

They really thought they could project a reality that ignored white blue collar frustration across the nation. I guess they addressed some flaws in their cheap and lazy polling, but the root causes for their ****upery are still there.

The fact that Biden is genuinely interested in reaching across the aisle makes all the difference here, but I'm not going to project any confidence until there's an impeachable landslide and a recaptured senate.

 

[Premium Post]
Trump is SURGING in the polls right now, working his a$$ off traveling across the country daily reaching out to voters. This is Democracy. This is America.

Biden is in a damage control pretzel in his basement hoping the press' gag order on his corruption holds... and hoping there's no more smoking gun emails that bust him on selling access to the US government to Russia-China-Ukraine-Kazakhstan. There might also be some even worse things on Hunter's laptop - we'll have to wait and see... Biden is hiding from the press and had to take his granddaughter with him to the store yesterday to shield him from questions about his scandal. That's literally why she was there for those who don't understand the game.


GOOD DAY

 

I’m still worried and will be worried until I hopefully hear Biden will be the next POTUS.

Hillary had an 85% chance to win if I remember right the day of the election and then the wheels came off. Did I like Hillary? Nope. Did I vote for Trump? Nope.

i agree that’s Biden is more likable than Hillary and should win, but I won’t relax until it happens. Hopefully people go out and make it happen.

 

Man I keep preaching this...

It's not that so many people liked Trump. it's the fact that soooooooooooo many people HATED Hillary...

T_Man

 

FIFY

 

I'm more worried Biden might make a throwing error keeping Trump's team at the plate and then pulls the starter for a reliever who walks the next batter, hits the one after that and then gives up a four run homer.

Seriously though while Biden's is more likeable than Clinton and has a wider support than Clinton he is actually underperforming Clinton in some of the swing states. Trump is still very much within striking distance of winning a narrow Electoral College victory.

Also Trump is unlike any other incumbent President in that he's already questioning the legitimacy of the election and threatened to not leave office. This means that it might not be enough to just beat him narrowly. The larger the margin of victory the less likely he will be able to challenge the election.

 

In addition I think that the DNC and the Democratic campaign hasve learned nothing. Hope that people will hate Trump sufficiently. Emphasize primarily identity politics and make little attempt to play to the liberal base, white non-college educated males, instead focus on appealing to Republican or Independent women in the suburbs.

Four years of demonstrated craziness by the corrupt serial liar Trump, his moronic handling of Cove 19 and Biden's better likeability vs Hillary will hopefully be enough.

 

The visualization they're using at the top of the page is much better this time around than 2016.

 

It seems like the liberal base are the one's pushing identity politics. Also it seems like white non-college educated males are the ones that oppose the progressive agenda most of all.

 

Not enough people want Bernie. Like Biden said he beat Sanders with significantly less money.

 

His campaign has been urging people to treat this as a head-up, neck to neck battle. Don't trust the poll - go vote. That's lesson learn from Clinton's campaign relaxing toward the end.

He is attempting to attract and expand the base and is winning over suburban women, 65+, independent. If the polls are correct among those group, it's a blowout win.

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...p-vs-biden-favorability-ratings-2020-vs-2016/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/trump-vs-biden-national-polls-2020-vs-2016/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2016_president/

I went back and looked at the old data. Hillary and Biden have similar profiles. Hillary actually had a pretty good favorability score based on the polls, People say she was a super unlikable candidate the polls say she wasn't. I think her big mistakes were not campaigning in states she thought she had in the bag.

It is kind of worrying because the election is going to come down to a 100,000 votes in a few key battle ground states.

Hillary's betting odds were significantly better than Biden's are 15 days to the election. Biden does about a 3% lead in overall votes, but obviously popular votes don't determine the election.

 

To be fair the Biden campaign is WAY WAY WAY better run so far in comparison to Hillary's campaign. I think it's unfair to even put them in the same ballpark. They had some good people but it was chaotic until Mayor Pete & Liz Warren's campaign team merged and really righted that ship.

But yes the campaign has made sure to let Trump own the airwaves if the News is bad for him, but honestly SO FAR that looks to be working, and the bump after the first debate shows it worked. I thought Biden's lead was at the ceiling, and had no idea he could get 2 or 3 more points, but he did simply by Trump imploding on the debate stage, and Biden looking like an adult.

That being said that strategy COULD backfire in the end like it did for Hillary. Hillary had good reason to take a back seat in the news, and Biden does too, and that's concerning mostly because we all have 2016 PTSD, and we all know that Trump has voters who are looking for any excuse to come home.

So yes I think Biden needs to get on the airwaves a bit more with solid easy to understand policy points these last two weeks... yes like Bernie is very skilled at... Don't trust that Trump will continue to implode because I know for a fact that there are MILLIONS of voters out there who want ANY excuse they can find to not vote for Biden, and vote for Trump. You cannot rely on those voters in any election to do the right thing unless you change their minds.

So I agree... the Biden camp needs to take a gamble and change strategy this week to a "HERE IS BIDENS PLAN" in bright red lights strategy. He has to find a way to knock Trump's nonsense off the airwaves with Positive Biden policy debates... not just rely on a anti-Trump nonsense because Trump is capable of shutting up for a week, and all of those millions of voters will turn on a dime in Trumps favor.