[Official] Astros Off Season

Trying not to be sad/mad about how our season ended but given the circumstances we overcame a lot and the pitching actually wasn’t entirely to blame for coming up short. Need to try and resign Springer and Brantley and find a starter and a reliever or two and we should be good with Alvarez and rookies getting better with the valuable experience this season.

 

Need to sign a capable starter who can help us survive the regular season, and a proven reliever to stabilize the pen.

With Yordan coming back, we can afford to lose Springer or Brantley, can't lose both though. If Springers back find a risk/reward corner OF for cheap, if Brantley is back go for pure glove in CF.

Honestly I feel better about our window now than I did entering the season. It seems we have 2 legit quality starters in Framber and Urquidy, 2 decent bullpen arms in Paredes and Taylor, and another great arm in Javier, still not sure about his long term role though. Not to mention Tucker solidfying himself. We suddenly have quite a few young cheap pieces that we can maneuver around financially.

I fully expect us to be the odds on favorite to win the west next season, and we'll be right back in the mix come next October.

 

Proud of the season at the end of the day.

Reaching the ALCS minus JV, Alvarez, Osuna, Smith, Peacock & Pruitt is not something I thought was plausible.

Run it back in ‘21

 

Need to sign 1 or 2 hitters whose nuts do not shrink into skittles during clutch moments.

 

Forrest Whitley....that guy is going to be critical next season. I really hope he can make the team out of Spring Training

2021 Rotation
Framber Valdez
Zack Greinke
Lance McCullers Jr
Jose Urquidy
Forrest Whitley

Christian Javier might have to be a reliever/spot starter for one more year.

 

Evaluating the resources as of today:

Estimated payroll flexibility: $40M after all arbitration raises

Position players (9):
5 established, star level bats: Bregman (3B), Correa (SS), Altuve (2B), Alvarez (DH), Tucker (OF)
Gurriel, a solid everyday 1B
Maldonado, a very valuable defensive catcher who is inconsistent offensively
Diaz, an excellent super utility player
Straw, an excellent pinch runner and defensive OF

Pitchers (12):
Greinke, a fading ace
McCullers, an inconsistent SP with big upside
Valdez and Urquidy, emerging young arms who have shown ToR flashes
Javier, a pitcher who is very hard to project who could be anywhere from a #2 SP to an elite closer to much less
James, Smith, Raley, Pruitt: Middling veteran relievers who probably belong on a big league roster
Paredes, Taylor: emerging late inning relievers
Pressly: a closer better suited as a setup man

Fringy MLB ready prospects: Toro, Stubbs, McCormick, Jones, Scrubb, Garcia, Perez, Sanabria, Castellanos, Bielak, Bailey, Armenteros, Rodriguez

DFA fodder: De Jong, Sneed, Garneau, Mayfield

Non-tender candidates: Devenski, Osuna

Prospects of note: Abreu, Whitley, H Brown, Solis, Santos, Nova, Lee, Pena, Barber

Major needs (1):
an elite bat who can play the outfield

Minor needs (7):
An established ToR SP to replace Verlander and allow Javier to move to the pen
Closer
good backup catcher who can hit
Another good bat who can play outfield
3 elite prospects to boost the farm to be above average

Other considerations: Correa, Greinke, McCullers, Maldonado, and Smith are pending free agents.

 

I trust Alex and Yuli to fix it over the offseason. Such a weird season that I don't think either has taken a step back. I will really have a hard time seeing Springer in another uniform. Especially in the playoffs, so I hope they get it done. Two more bullpen arms and an outfielder to hit 8th and we should be ready to go. Unless there is an obvious undervalued starting pitcher, I'd rather keep the money for Springer.

 

Moves I would try to make:
1. Offer Springer up to $130M/5yr with an opt out after 3 years (If he rejects, sign a cheap versatile free agent who can mix in with Straw: Marisnick, Pillar, Villar, E Hernandez) or swing a trade
2. Offer Brantley $30M/2yrs (if he rejects, scan the market for value)
3. Flip pitching prospects for a SP and a Closer
4. Pick up a good backup C in free agency (Avila, Castro, Flowers, McCann, Chirinos, Ramos)
5. Sign Pedro Leon and Oscar Colas in the J2 class
6. Flip pitching prospects for draft picks or intl slot money

Hopeful 2021 opening day roster:
CF Springer
3B Bregman
2B Altuve
DH Alvarez
SS Correa
RF Tucker
1B Gurriel
LF Diaz
C Maldonado
Bench: Straw, Alex Avila, McCormick, Jones
Rotation: German Marquez*, Greinke, McCullers, Valdez, Urquidy
Bullpen: Pruitt, James, Smith, Raley, Taylor, Paredes, Javier, Pressly

*acquired from Colorado for Whitley, Abreu, Garcia, and Toro

 

Priorities: Resign Springer, sign Correa long term (doubtful he will want to), resign Brantley. Other than that there isn’t much turnover. Get it done Crane. Other notable free agents: Reddick and Peacock.

 

Extend Springer for 5 years 130 million.

I don't believe Correa will sign an extension. If he doesn't sign, I trade him to the Mets. Correa and Luis Garica for McNeil, Nimmo, and Seth Lugo.

Sign James McCann for 3 years 33 million.

Sign Mike Minor, Robbie Ray, James Paxton, or Corey Kluber to a one year prove it deal for 8-10 million with incentives and a 2nd year team option. Hopefully this person eats innings. If not, Javier can slide into the rotation or maybe Whitley.

Springer RF
McNeil 3B
Altuve 2B
Alvarez DH
Bregman SS
Tucker LF
McCann C
Gurriel 1B
Nimmo CF

Bench:
Maldonado, Straw, Diaz, McCormick/Toro/Jones

Rotation:
Greinke
Valdez
McCullers
Urquidy
Minor/Ray/Paxton/Kluber

Bullpen:
Pressly
Lugo
*Paredes
Javier
Taylor
Raley
Pruitt
James

*Paredes becomes the closer during the season.

Payroll goes down 20 million after all my moves and lots of flexibility after next season as well.

 

I wish Lunhow was still around. No offense to Click who could be great, but man Lunhow had a plan.

 

The Mets would be absolute fools to do that deal; McNeil is worth more than Correa by himself.

I think there will be a lot of value to be had in the 2nd and 3rd tier free agent market as well as with teams trying to shed salary of 2nd tier arbitration guys. Click can demonstrate his worth by finding solid cheap multiyear solutions in the outfield, bench/catcher, and pitching staff.

 

I don’t think Correa will sign an extension, but I don’t think that’s because he won’t re-up with Houston.

I love Correa. The dude is a beast. And he’s perfect for this team.

To date, he has not been Mookie Betts or Mike Trout. He has not finished higher than 17th in MVP voting.

he’s great, and I want him back. But he hasn’t proven to be a $30 million a year player, or someone that deserves a 10 year deal.

And that’s why he probably won’t sign an extension. Firstly because that offer isn’t out there right now, and secondly because he wants to see if he can have the type of season that will get him that offer.

What would he get if he were a free agent right now? My guess is a 7-8 year deal worth about $150-200 million, with an out clause in the middle years. That’s a deal for a very good player with potential, but it isn’t MVP-in-their-prime money, and my guess is that’s what he’s aiming for.

So 2021 is the year for Carlos. He either steps up to the moment and there are higher numbers at the beginning of that contract value, or he settles into who he has been...a 5 tool dynamite playing the most important field position at a high level, but not a guy that punishes you in every at bat.

 

Correa is the clear leader of this team. The idea of trading him is dumb.

 

Disappointed how last night's game went but proud of them. Great season, Corona and 'scandal' considered.
When you think about it, in the 2010s it's difficult to squeeze in world series after world series in that proverbial "window". Closest thing to a dynasty were those Giants and they did it every 2 years. Red sox went 6 seasons from their 2013 one to the 2018 championship.
Cubs, Royals, Walgreens will all disappear for a while.

Astros can still keep it going with a slight new cast because they're that talented: Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Alejandro and Carlitos. Teams wish they had 3 of those guys . Five? with Greinke and Verlander coming off the books soon to make some significant signings.
You can open 2 more windows in 7 years. Did Menudo's window close in 1980 when the band singers turned 19? No! They replaced the cast that eventually landed Ricky Martin! $$$$$. The Springer and Verlander window could be over but another one is opening.

So what are we talking about?
Signings: I'll leave it to you guys to tell me which hitters and outfielders would fit best. I would love to offer Tyler Bauer a contract.
1. Bauer
2. Valdez
3. Greinke
4. Urquidy
5. Cristian Javier

 

I have always thought Springer will age like Curtis Granderson. Granderson was a decent player still capable of playing CF thru his age 36 season and had All-star level seasons at age 34 and 35. If length of contract is a major factor for Springer, I would be willing to give him 6 years if it meant being able to sign him at a reasonable AAV. Obviously a shorter deal (something like $110M/4yrs) would be preferable but I would probably be willing to give him $150M/6yrs if it came to it.

 

Yeah...Click will never be able to help build a World Series contender. What has Tampa accomplished?

 

Don't care. He was not good in the regular season. His OPS was 17th among qualifying shortstops. He has never put a complete season together, and he hasn't proven he can play a complete season since his back problems started. If I am Crane I am not comfortable giving him a 7,10, or 12 year deal. He regained some of his value in the post season. IF he won't sign a team friendly extension that removes the risk of injury for him next year then see what you can get in the trade market. Some fans get too obsessed with indivdual players. I don't care if they trade all the core the guys if the ASTROS win next season.

 

Yeah... that’s exactly what I said. Click sucks and will never build a contender. Way to put words in my mouth. Or did you miss the part where I said he could be great in your jump to defend him? No need to. I’m a fan of Click and praised the move when it became necessary. But Click was not the GM of the Rays and there is absolutely no guarantee he becomes what we all know Lunhow was.

So it’s clear, I think we are fortunate to have Click but he has big shoes to fill. Lunhow built this team from almost the ground up and at the beginning of maybe the biggest off season of this group’s era, it’d have been nice to see Jeff around.