all it would take is 4 republican senators to save the day. out of 53. 8%. sadly that's too much to expect.
The Venn diagram of Anti Trump Republicans who are also on the fence just enough to put up with, autocracy, for the sake of a supreme court seat, existing in net numbers high enough in electorally significant places...is a not a big shaded area This is a super stable race without a lot up for grabs with urgent issues (pandemic, depression, civil decay) dominating. Maybe Merrick Garland got reluctant Republicans on board the train in 2016, but most of them are....still on the train. If you think Justice Amy Barrett makes it a tossup, you read too much politico or Axios. The scenario of 'Trump loses, nomination delayed past November" is probably equally or more likely than your "Trump wins, shows restraint" model, both because he's currently a 3-1 loser and is physically incapable of showing restraint. If you really want to game theory this out, basically the interesting question is the one I mentioned - does the short run loss of a seat make it worth it to force much needed long term reform? I would argue yes, even before tonight.
Susan Collins and Corey Gardner are two most vulnerable whose senate seat relies on getting some Democratic leaning voters in their states. Murkowski and Romney already are committing publicly to blocking the vote. So the question is if McConnell and the GOP donor oligarchs offer them something they value more than their Senate seats. If there is a nominee that is a merit garland type then maybe it gives a Susan Collins and Gardner some cover. If it’s an obvious hack like Kavanaugh Collins and Gardner can kiss their seats goodbye... but honestly they might have already lost their seats anyways so it wouldn’t shock me if they fold knowing they’ll be rewarded with a multi million dollar a year board seat on a Halliburton type co.
You'll have to explain that one .... The senate majority leader controls what and when. If he want's a vote on a potential nom , it'll happen. I don't see any way for the Dems to avoid a vote.
My job is done here. Exposed for the jackass you are. It is inevitable...my only hope is her last cold moments and her final seconds is in the stark realization that She would be replaced by Trump.
I don't think Mitch (and lol certainly not President Strokes) is measured enough for this. He's succeeded so far by behaving as badly as possible. He's going to continue gambling. Like I said I kind of want him to. We won't survive without structural reform, this gets us there quicker
isnt 45 days not enough time to get someone anyway? and then its election year isnt the etiquette to wait? also if 45 days is not enough you cant fill it in lame duck so this is a jan 3rd deal and if trump wins then he picks in january if biden wins its same story.. i guess the other question is if its contested election and her seat empty @dobro1229 ? btw @RayRay10 some trolls as you see are children and not worth even acknowledgement
Why not? The Garland issue was the first time I’ve seen a serious lack of respect for presidential authority (in my lifetime). Going back to the Nixon impeachment, norms have been upheld. Trump’s presidency could be a trend of chaos or it could easily go back to normal with Biden imo. But I’m also an optimist at heart
Could you at least wait for the nomination before exposing yourself as a biased political hack? 4 republican senator's to save what? Democrats from losing a contest?
So this is yet another hurdle to Biden winning. If the race is close and a state is disputed, there's absolutely no way they won't side with Trump. I had some faith Roberts might vote with some integrity, but that's out the window now. Now we can only hope for some lucky deaths, or else this country is about to be set back 50 years.
I don't get Romney. Is he in political trouble in Utah? I doubt it. Does he dislike Trump SO much that he'll thwart the Republican cause? Apparently. With a 53 seat majority, CAN he block the vote? No.
I highly doubt it. Well, maybe it might just because conservatives tend to not be as vocal or active in their dissent, but I don't see a big change. There will be a large split just within the Democratic party, between the very liberal and the moderates, and Biden will have his hands full with that. You see him doing a single thing in that climate to reach across the aisle? He'd lose more than half his support. I see him being very liberal in his policies (he already embraced the Sander's program, and Harris voted even more liberal than Bernie), making the reaction from the right that much stronger. The one thing that might change is that the Republicans won't make it their life's mission to do everything in their power to get rid of him, at the expense of everything else, which is what has led to much of the divisiveness. Is that what you were referring to?
I think the only real laws are that there needs to be a majority vote. The rest is senate rules McConnell can just change... but of course that comes with consequences. Senate rules make it a very tight schedule before the election. A week alone for debating, after the confirmation hearings which could take a week. Then there are other tactics that could take it all the way to the week before or week of the election. So yeah, it can be done before the election, but it will take naked partisanship that will tear this country apart. If the election is contested, and the court has a 4-4 ruling on anything election related the lower court rulings would stand in that case. That's actually fairly normal and happened often during the last year of Obama's tenure. I think the political pressure really is on the Republicans and Trump although the media folks like feckless Chuck Todd will just keep saying "but do the Democrats overplay their hand yada yada yada".
This isn't good for Republicans nor the country. It's bad all the way around. McConnell is playing with fire - if he pushes through a nominee, it may spark a rebellion in his own party and result in a humiliating defeat. It will also energize Dems probably far more than Conservatives. Furthermore it almost guarantees the death of the filibuster and ensures Biden will be forces to add 4 more liberal justices to undo McConnell shenanigans. RGB should have retired during Obama's first term. No matter what, the country is going to be deeply divided in an explosive way come 2021. It's dangerous times no matter what the outcome. This just ads to the polarization. If Trump wins, Dems will never accept the result. If Biden wins, Trump won't accept the result. We are probably facing the greatest crisis in American history since the civil war.
