Given his play this year and age would you bring him back in FA, or re-sign Brantley instead? Not to mention this would leave you extra money to re-sign a guy like Yuli.
I think it depends on what the market for him is. Can the Astros replace him with someone nearly as good for a fraction of the money and maybe bring back Brantley? Do the Astros even have a spot for Brantley? Will he need to DH much? Coming off an injury will Yordan spend the year as DH?
I think the odds of keeping him have dramatically dropped, assuming the Astros don't go on some kind of crazy run to end the season. If the Astros were still a World Series favorite type team this year, I think there'd be pressure to keep the whole gang together and maybe overpay him if needed. But a down year takes away some of the pressure from fans and gives the team more flexibility to re-tool their finances a bit. Even more so if Verlander ultimately needs surgery and misses next year (ala McCullers the year he came back for the playoffs). I also seem to remember reading that Springer and Hinch were close and Hinch was good at knowing how to get the best out of players, so there may be an element of that to consider.
It is really hard to say without taking big guesses about Springer’s feelings, the free agent market, and the Astros finances. Houston pretty much HAS to add a CF, and pretty much HAS to add at least one bat. Resigning Springer checks both of those boxes. But it’s all about capacity and value. Assuming the pandemic didn’t have a huge impact on payroll flexibility (meaning we can expect Houston to sustain a $200M payroll thru their competitive window), then Houston has money to spend. But they’ve got a lot of looming questions just related to the lineup (Correa’s free agency, Alvarez’s injury history, Altuve’s potential decline, Tucker’s projection, etc.). Springer is by far the best CF available, but there are other viable CF free agents (Pillar, Bradley, Marisnick) who could be good enough to play everyday. And of course there are trade options. I like Brantley and think he will still be viable in LF for another 1-2 years, so assuming the price is in range, I’d love to have him back. Same for Gurriel. It’s just too hard to predict how free agency will play out this offseason. Teams may have zero money and we may see teams not only avoiding free agents all together but also desperately trying to unload even reasonable contracts. In that case Springer probably accepts a QO and Gurriel and Brantley are forced to take 1 year 7 figure deals. Alternatively, things could return to normal, which would mean Springer is a $100M+ player and Gurriel/Brantley are looking for that 3rd year and $50M+.
Here’s the problem for me. You could make the argument that Springer was our best playoff batter in 2 of our last 3 playoff runs, and I put a lot of stock into players that raise their level of play when it counts the most. The elephant in the room, however, is assessing which players took advantage of the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal and assessing how much sign stealing may have inflated each individual’s numbers. That’s an honest analysis the Astros will have to perform that is beyond my ability from afar so it would be an ‘I don’t know’ from afar where it would have been an ‘absolutely’ from me before the sign stealing reveal based on my original assessment above. Would’ve been easier to offer my opinion if the numbers of Springer, Altuve, and Bregman didn’t all collectively decline this season, albeit a strange shortened one in the age of Covid.
I think Lourdes has had some defensive struggles. He probably has the physical tools, but he hasn’t played CF so far. The trade market for CF is pretty barren, especially considering Houstons lack of top prospects to trade. I think Jonathan Villar is an underrated player and I think he could play CF. Signing him to a multiyear deal would also give some insurance at SS if Correa left after 2021. Another thought is that Bregman might be able to handle CF, in which case they could bring in a 3B to replace Springer’s bat. Finally, Tucker probably wouldn’t be an embarrassment in center, as long as the 2 corner guys were above average defensively. Lots of options, but none that look like pure upgrades from having Springer back in CF. He’s pretty easily one of the 30 most valuable position players in the league. It’s virtually impossible to fully replace a player that good.
Speaking on this for the farm system, I'm a bit clueless as to the state of the union with our farm. I know it's not great, but why is it not great again? Did we trade a lot of guys for Cole and Verlander? Or how'd it get decimated?
Trades, graduations, low draft slot, draft pick penalty, small international pool, high picks not panning out. The farm has good depth (especially on the pitching side), but lacks the type of elite prospects who headline trades or project to become star players (outside of Forrest Whitley, whose stock is way down).
Bregman's numbers this season are better than when they were sign stealing. Springer...this season was about the same when they were sign stealing. Altuve's number this season are worse than when they were sign stealing, and worse than they were before the Astros were sign stealing.
If they make a competitive fair offer, there’s a good chance he will take it. if they try to low ball him due to his age or coming off a sub-par season, he will sign elsewhere. He still remains their only plus outfielder and very likely the second most productive hitter behind Bregman.
My main issue isnt with Springer or Brantley, its with balancing the type of players we sign on long term. We already got Bregs and Altuve. That is 2-0 in favor of position players over pitchers. Is it really the smart move to make that 3-0 ? Shouldn't we be looking for a #1 TOR to sign long term?
If the Astros pivot away from Springer and decide to use the money elsewhere there will be some players available. Kevin Pillar will be a free agent and while his bat is mediocre, he is an elite defender. Gurriel Jr. will likely be available in trade and his bat is good. However he isn't a good fielder in center and he will cost decent prospects. Joc Pederson will be a free agent and he is adequate in center field. While his bat isn't fantastic it isn't bad. Jackie Bradley Jr is going to be a free agent and has a really good glove and a mediocre bat. Kevin Kiermaer will be available in trade. He is a little more expensive than the other choices but he is one of the best center fielder's to ever live. If the Astros save money on the center field position they can likely bring back Gurriel and Brantley and get a draft pick from Springer....
We will not be in a position to sign a #1 pitcher long term on the free agent market. Verlander and Greinke are both older pitchers and have expressed interest in seeing what happens. If the Astros believe that Valdez/Urquidy/Javier are legitimate, they should look at signing them cheap. Any of those guys could be set for life and the Astros would have them under control. Although the Astros still have them under control for years regardless.
I’d be totally fine with this lineup next year: 3B Bregman LF Brantley ($30M/2yr) 2B Altuve DH Alvarez SS Correa RF Tucker 1B Toro C Maldonado CF Kiermeier (traded for Abreu, Ivey, and Sanabria) Bench: Diaz, Straw, Stubbs, TBD cheap free agent veteran bat
#1 pitchers that hit the free agent market go for huge amounts of money, which the Astros will not have to spend. The best bet is trading for someone that exceeds expectations (like Verlander has and like Sonny Gray) that is under contract or developing one internally like Valdez. Even guys like Wheeler that had an era of nearly 4.00 last year got 120 million.
It blows my mind that this perception is so strong. News flash: the Astros didn't illegally steal signs last year. Have a look at their offensive production last year. I guess the two independent, separate sources who evaluated the statistics and discovered the illegal sign stealing DIDN'T HELP AT ALL are affirmed by last year's statistics. Springer and Altuve have been hurt this year, and the numbers show it. Springer's production is picking up lately. So was Altuve's, before he got hurt again.
