Flashbacks to hurricane Ike...very similar path along the southern coast of Cuba and similar forecast cone after crossing the western tip of Cuba.
I saw on the news this morning they were saying that Marco was clearing the way for Laura. I'm not sure what that means exactly but they were saying because Marco was going through relatively the same area that meant that the factors that are weakening Marco wouldn't be there when Laura came through. Also the models show the path of Laura drifting westward. That is obviously bad for Houston but there is also a blob of 90 degree water in the Gulf that if Laura goes over that could strengthen very rapidly.
I can't find it either but here is an old Chron article that has some maps that shows how many areas have the potential to be flooded. https://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2008/09/would-a-category-3-hurricane-surge-flood-your-home/
Tropical Storm Laura Advisory 20 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Monday August 24, 2020 Current Location: 21.2N, 80.3W Geographic Reference: 240 Miles SSE of Key West, Florida Movement: West-northwest at 19 mph Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 75 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 14 out of a possible 50 points (5 size, 9 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1000 mb Key Points 1. Laura is predicted to become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. 2. There is the potential for severe impacts from wind and tidal surge for the northwest Gulf Coast. 3. Forecast confidence has been increased to average. Our Forecast Laura remains on-track this morning as it tracks along the south coast of Cuba. A reconnaissance plane investigating Laura is finding max sustained winds near 60 mph. Laura is somewhat disorganized this morning, with all heavy squalls located southeast of the center. Wind shear that is still affecting Laura is predicted to diminish by tomorrow morning, allowing Laura to steadily strengthen as it crosses the Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday. There have not been any significant changes in the model guidance overnight. Models have zeroed-in in the area from the upper Texas coast to southwest Louisiana. We have not made any changes to our forecast. Confidence in the forecast track has been increased to average, though the intensity at landfall is still uncertain. We are predicting Laura to have max sustained winds near 110 mph when it reaches the Gulf Coast, but the winds could easily be 25 mph higher or lower. There is a slightly better chance that the winds could be a little stronger than we are forecasting rather than a little weaker, though. Landfall is predicted to occur late Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning south of Lake Charles, LA. As an average-sized upper-end Category 2 hurricane, Laura would be capable of producing a storm surge of 12-15 feet near and to the east of the point of landfall. That storm surge could be several feet higher up coastal rivers, like the Neches River running through Beaumont, if Laura tracks inland west of Port Arthur. Tides along the central to southwest Louisiana coast and the upper Texas coast will begin slowly increasing by tomorrow evening, reaching 2-4 feet above normal by noon Wednesday as large waves move ashore. The storm surge will move ashore just ahead of the eye late Wednesday night. Expected Impacts on Land Jamaica: Additional flooding is possible through the morning hours. Cuba: Widespread power outages are likely along the southern shore and in Havana. Flash flooding and mudslides are also likely. Northern Gulf Coast: There is the potential for severe wind and tidal surge damage near where the system makes landfall. Outside of the eyewall, widespread power outages will be possible. Widespread street flooding could also occur. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Squalls will reach the lease blocks offshore southeast Louisiana during the day on Tuesday and possibly the blocks along the upper Texas coast before sunrise on Wednesday. Improving conditions are expected during the day on Thursday as Laura moves well inland and weakens. Seas could exceed 35 feet near the center. . Tropical Storm Marco Advisory 17 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Monday August 24, 2020 Current Location: 28.3N, 88.7W Geographic Reference: 135 miles SSE of New Orleans, LA Movement: Northwest at 10 mph Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 65 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 45 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 45 miles Organizational Trend: Weakening Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1006 mb Key Points 1. Marco continues to weaken. 2. Squall radii were increased only in the northeastern quadrant while the intensity forecast was decreased. 3. Marco will continue to produce impacts to the central and northwestern Gulf coast today into Tuesday while it weakens. Our Forecast The upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning continues to interact with Tropical Storm Marco. The southerly to southwesterly wind shear continues to increase over Marco resulting in the bulk of showers and thunderstorms being decoupled to the northeast of the surface circulation center. This should cause Marco to continue to weaken today into tonight, and Marco could weaken to a remnant low sooner than forecast. Our latest intensity forecast has been decreased to reflect this situation. In addition, we had to increase the squall radii only in the northeastern quadrant while decreasing any squall radii in the southern semicircle to reflect the increasing wind shear and to closer represent the latest radar imagery which shows moderate rainfall associated with Marco pushing into the Florida Panhandle this morning. The center of Marco will pass south of Plaquemines and LaFourche Parishes by the early afternoon today. On our current track, tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast from Plaquemines Parish to Terrebonne Parish. Marco is expected to be a small, weakening tropical storm as it parallels the Louisiana Coast into this evening. By Tuesday morning, we think it will weaken to a remnant low to the south of Vermilion Bay. However, given the latest organizational trends, it is quite possible that Marco could weaken to a remnant low as early as this afternoon or this evening. Due to the shear, most of the heavy rainband activity will remain on the eastern side of the storm. This rainband activity will decrease in coverage and severity as the system tracks farther west tonight into Tuesday. Expected Impacts on Land Southeast Louisiana, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge: Possible heavy rains have the potential to cause street flooding at a minimum. Isolated to scattered power outages may occur, especially in any higher winds gusts contained in rainbands particularly along the immediate coast where there is a chance of tropical storm conditions. Southern Mississippi to Florida Panhandle: Possible heavy rains have the potential to cause street flooding at a minimum. Isolated power outages may occur, especially in any higher winds gusts contained in moderate to heavy rainbands particularly along the immediate coast. Expected Impacts Offshore Southeast Louisiana Blocks: Squalls and winds of up to tropical storm force within the squalls are possible through early Tuesday.
ya kinda confused about that. I feel like in 24 hours will know if you houston getting screwed or not at this point.
Haven't been following (don't live in Houston anymore) but what is the potential impacts/damage of this versus Ike?
So NHC says slightly east of TX Louisiana Border. ECMWF (2019's best track predictor per Wunderground) says probably close, maybe slightly east, to Houston. UKMET (2019's 2nd best track predictor) says west of Houston.
If it hits Houston, expect Ike-like damage. Laura will likely be slightly weaker, but Houston has more people which means it likely take as long for things like power to get fixed.
7 days without electricity. I don't know if I can do that again, brehs. Once in a lifetime is enough. It was also 2 weeks into September, Ike was. The temperatures had cooled down to mid 80s degrees which made it bearable. Still remember helping my sis distribute MREs at the long point baptist church when she was going through her Baptist phase. Nope. Not going to do it again. I'm getting out my sharpie and redirecting it to Alabama. Give me rep points later.
It was 2 weeks for my family but I remember it being beautiful weather and camping the whole time. I doubt it'll be the case for Laura.
Ike was a bizarre storm Cat 4 size and storm surge Cat 2 wind speed -- it did have a massive hurricane force wind area.
Laura should have a similar, but slightly smaller storm surge if a direct hit or slightly west at point of impact. The further west the storm goes, the stronger it will be. Not sure on the width of storms, but Laura should be wide enough to cause wind damage through most of the greater Houston Area if a direct hit or slightly west. Odds of a direct hit are very low. P.S. This is based on rough storm projections nearly 2 days out and just comparing what is being said in various blogs, weather forecasts.
