Note how these two forms are converging.... Tropical Depression Fourteen, Advisory #5 Site Forecast for University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, TX Valid: 09:00 AM CDT 21 Aug, 2020 Discussion: Depression Fourteen is forecast to become a 60 mph tropical storm before striking the Yucatan. Beyond then, the forecast is highly uncertain. Landfall could occur anywhere from the middle Texas coast through central Louisiana. A stronger system will move faster and more toward Louisiana while a weaker system will move slower and toward Texas. The forecast is quite uncertain over southeast Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible near the coast, though the risk may be decreasing a little. We cannot rule out some power outages. General Rainfall Amounts: Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches may be possible on Tuesday as the storm moves slowly ashore. Storm Surge: Tides may increase to 2-4 feet above normal on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Laura Advisory 8 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Friday August 21, 2020 Current Location: 17.0N, 60.0W Geographic Reference: 45 miles NE of Guadeloupe Island Movement: West-northwest at 13 mph Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 80 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 125 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1011 mb Key Points 1. The northern Leeward and Virgin Islands could see winds to tropical storm force later today into tonight. 2. There is a chance that Laura could be a hurricane when it impacts south Florida and the Florida Panhandle. 3. Forecast uncertainty, especially concerning the intensity, remains high. Our Forecast A reconnaissance plane inside the depression has found a very weak and poorly-defined circulation well south of overnight estimates. Winds near the center are very light. However, the plane found wind gusts of 50 mph to 60 mph in squalls about 100 miles northeast of the center. Because of these stronger winds to the northeast, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Laura. There are now some squalls developing to the northwest of the center, which is a sign that the wind shear is beginning to drop off. This should allow for some slow strengthening over the next 24-36 hours as it passes the northeast Caribbean. Since the center is located about 60 miles to the south of overnight estimates, we have adjusted the track southward such that it now crosses the islands of the northeast Caribbean, passing very near Puerto Rico tomorrow morning. All tropical storm-force sustained winds should be located to the north of the track, so Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands may escape the sustained tropical storm winds but experience wind gusts to 60 mph in squalls as the center passes. Laura is predicted to pass north of the Dominican Republic from Saturday evening through Monday morning, passing the Florida Keys on Monday afternoon. Once in the Gulf, we think it will track to the northwest, making landfall early Wednesday morning near Pensacola, FL. It is possible that we may be adjusting the final landfall point farther west along the Gulf Coast in future advisories, possibly as far west as the Mississippi coast. The environment south of the Bahamas should allow Laura to slowly strengthen as it passes north of Cuba, possibly to near hurricane strength by the time it passes the Florida Keys Monday afternoon. Although we are predicting max sustained winds at final landfall will be 75 mph, it is quite possible that Laura's winds will be stronger, or even weaker, than we are forecasting. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico: There will be a chance of scattered power outages. Some street flooding could also occur. Bahamas: Power outages are likely. Street flooding could also occur. South Florida: There will be a risk of scattered to widespread power outages along with street flooding. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: The greatest impacts are expected to be confined to the lease blocks off of Florida. However, outer bands of squalls may impact the lease blocks offshore southeast Louisiana on Tuesday. There will be a chance of hurricane force winds Tuesday and Wednesday for the eastern Gulf. Increased seas are also likely.
What is the ‘Fujiwhara effect’ and could we see it next week in the Gulf of Mexico? What you need to know: The Fujiwhara effect By: Debbie Lord, Cox Media Group National Content Desk Updated: August 21, 2020 - 6:27 AM The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical systems that could enter the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. The areas of disturbed weather are Tropical Storm Laura and Tropical Depression 14, and while forecasts can and do change, the NHC forecast calls for both systems to become hurricanes before making landfall in different spots along the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico. To have two tropical systems in the Gulf, potentially making landfall near the same time is unusual and could lead to something that is even more rare – the Fujiwhara effect. Content Continues Below What is the Fujiwhara effect? Here’s what we know about the rare phenomenon. What is the Fujiwhara effect? The Fujiwhara effect happens when two tropical systems come near, then orbit each other, or possibly merge into one system. What does ‘Fujiwhara effect’ mean? The term “Fujiwhara effect” refers to the interaction between the two tropical weather systems. It is named for Sakuhei Fujiwhara, a Japanese meteorologist who first described the effect in 1921. How does it start? A couple of things have to happen for the Fujiwhara effect to take place. First, there have to be two storms involved. Second, they have to be within 870 miles of each other. Scientific Simulation: What happens then? According to the National Weather Service, one of three things happen when the storms come near each other. “When two hurricanes spinning in the same direction pass close enough to each other, they begin an intense dance around their common center,” the NWS website explains. “If one hurricane is a lot stronger than the other, the smaller one will orbit it and eventually come crashing into its vortex to be absorbed.” Or, if the two storms are close to the same size, they can gravitate toward each other until they reach a common point where they either merge or they spin each other around for a while before they spin off in different directions. The third possibility is that the two systems come together to form a large storm instead of two smaller ones. Will it happen this time? Tropical systems move and intensify based on a number of factors, and the Gulf of Mexico is a defined area, so it could happen.
One my least favorite thing about being a grown up is having to worry about a natural disaster. As a kid, impending hurricanes always gave me a sense of excitement and wonderment. I never worried that i wouldn't have a roof over my head or food since I didn't know better and my parents always took care of the hard stuff. Now that I am an adult, hurricanes just gave me a sense of dread. I worry about the my family, my home, and wide scale destruction all around. I wish I could just be a kid again.
Position yourself where its not a significant issue. I'd rather deal with hurricanes than rampant tornados and earthquakes.
Yeah, I thought hurricanes were cool when I was a kid and even when I was a single adult with no kids and no house. Born and raised in Houston and they never really made me nervous.....until Harvey. Harvey ass-raped Kingwood and much of it still hasn't recovered. Since then, there's been a lot more new construction and it's flooding every time it rains for more than an hour. Just moved from the front to the back last month. Was hoping not to get initiated so soon! I'd be down with "Fujiwara" sending this thing the hell away from Houston.
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory 6 Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Friday August 21, 2020 Current Location: 17.8N, 84.5W Geographic Reference: 230 miles SE of Cozumel Movement: North-northwest at 12 mph Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing slowly Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1007 mb Key Points 1. The depression is slowly becoming better organized 2. The depression is predicted to make landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow afternoon as a moderate to strong tropical storm. 3. There remains a high degree of uncertainty once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Our Forecast Tropical Depression Fourteen is slowly becoming better organized. There are a few storms developing near the center. If this trend continues, the system should become a tropical storm later tonight or early tomorrow morning. We are still forecasting the depression to become a moderate to strong tropical storm by the time it reaches the Yucatan tomorrow afternoon. Heavy rains could also continue into tomorrow for the Cayman Islands. Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the forecast confidence drops significantly. The forecast track will be highly dependent upon the intensity as well as interaction with Laura. For the time being, the only change to the forecast track from earlier is a slightly earlier time of landfall near the Texas / Louisiana border early Tuesday morning as a strong tropical storm. This is primarily based upon the system moving a bit farther north over the past few hours than we were previously forecasting. The overall reasoning from earlier remains valid. A hurricane would likely move faster and to the east of our forecast. The hurricane models favor this scenario. A weaker system will likely move slower and is more likely to move inland between northeast Mexico and the middle Texas Coast. This is the solution of the global forecast models. In addition, if Laura would move into the central Gulf of Mexico, this system would be forced well to the south and west of our forecast track, likely into South Texas or Mexico. There also continues to be uncertainty with regards to the rainfall forecast. While we expect some reduction in the forward speed as the system approaches the northern Gulf Coast, the air mass may be a bit drier than normal. Expected Impacts on Land Cayman Islands: Street flooding is possible. Yucatan: Power outages are likely near and to the north of the track. Street flooding is also likely, especially north and east of the center of circulation. NW Gulf Coast: Possible heavy rains have the potential to cause street flooding at a minimum. Power outages could also occur. Expected Impacts Offshore Squalls could reach the deepwater lease areas off of Texas and western Louisiana by Sunday night or Monday morning. Sunday is likely to be the final day of good flying conditions. Winds of tropical storm force are forecast for the lease blocks off of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Tropical Storm Laura Advisory 9 Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Friday August 21, 2020 Current Location: 17.2N, 61.8W Geographic Reference: Near St. John's Island Movement: West-northwest at 19 mph Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 45 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1009 mb Key Points 1. The northern Leeward and Virgin Islands could see winds to tropical storm force tonight and Saturday morning. 2. Landfall on the Gulf Coast has been adjusted westward to near Mobile Bay, Alabama. 3. Both the track and the intensity forecast confidence remain below average. Our Forecast Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that Laura remains very poorly organized. We cannot find a well-defined center in satellite imagery. Squalls have diminished in all quadrants as well. However, we do see indications that the environment in its path is becoming a little more favorable for development and strengthening. At the very least, Laura may produce wind gusts of 50 mph to 60 mph in squalls as it passes across the northeast Caribbean islands over the next 24 hours. Because Laura continues to track south of the previous forecast, we have adjusted our track farther to the south. The center of Laura may cut across the northern Dominican Republic Saturday night and near the coast of Cuba on Sunday. The proximity to land will likely limit its ability to strengthen until it reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Once in the southeast Gulf of Mexico next Monday afternoon, we expect Laura to slowly strengthen, possibly to a hurricane, by Tuesday night. There remains considerable uncertainty in Laura's intensity across the Gulf. Latest model guidance indicates that Laura may not reach hurricane intensity. There is also considerable uncertainty in Laura's track across the Gulf. The trend in all model guidance is not only for a weaker storm, but for a track farther west across the Gulf. We have adjusted the landfall point to near Mobile Bay on Wednesday afternoon, which is slower and farther west of our previous forecast. It is possible that we will be making further westward adjustments in the track and adjustments in the predicted intensity over the next several days. Much will depend on how Laura interacts with the Dominican Republic and Cuba this weekend. Once inland, Laura should track steadily north then northeastward while steadily weakening to a remnant low on Thursday. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico: There will be a chance of scattered power outages on Saturday. Some street flooding could also occur. South Florida: There will be a risk of scattered to widespread power outages along with street flooding. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: The greatest impacts are expected to be confined to the lease blocks off of Florida. However, outer bands of squalls may impact the lease blocks offshore southeast Louisiana on Tuesday. There will be a chance of hurricane force winds Tuesday and Wednesday for the eastern Gulf. For fun, I made this:
There are so many variables at play and its silly to post computer models at this point, but the latest GFS is out and does nothing with Marco and thinks Laura is a threat for the upper texas coast. Remember there is so much at play here. I would be shocked if this actually happens.
