The Rockets have thrived on James Harden's "read option" off the drive. The Spurs are making it easy for Harden to drive the lane. Showing the palms of their hands while Harden sets up. Usually, Harden drives and either A) gets a layup, B) lobs to Clint / pocket passes to Nene, or C) kicks it out to a shooter. James Harden is so good at reading the defense and making the correct decision. The Rockets offense wouldn't be this good if it were not for Harden's decision making. However, the Spurs have figured out a way to trick James Harden. When Harden reads the defense, he is looking at where the help defender is coming from. If there is no help defender, Harden gets a layup. If the help defender is the center's man, Harden lobs it up or pocket passes to his center for an assist. If the help defender is coming from the perimeter, Harden kicks it out to the designated spot on the outside. Usually, it's the corner three as Harden is already past the first level of defense. What the Spurs are doing is allowing Harden to get deep into the lane. That's good for a high-percentage shot, but it's also no man's land for a play maker. Being that deep in the lane is also the point of no return. Harden has to make a decision at that point. This makes it easy for the Spurs to decoy their defense. In game 3, the Spurs flashed the corner perimeter defender and had that man immediately jump back to the corner shooter. And by flash, I mean literally took a step towards a driving James Harden and sprinted back to their man. The perimeter help defender had no intention of helping. Just showed. The flashing triggered James' decision to kick the ball out to the corner, but by the time the ball got there, the shooter was covered. The play has now devolved to the lesser option late in the shot clock. How can Harden adjust? Get into the play earlier. Walking the ball up has to stop. Get right into it. That way, if the play still devolves, the Rockets can reset and try it again. Make the Spurs show their defense twice on one possession. Harden should be able to adjust and make a decision with more confidence by then. Go in for the layup, floater, or shot in the paint. Harden feasted on layups, but for some reason, he stopped shooting at the rim. If the Spurs' bigs are defending the rim well, then float the ball up or stop and pop in the paint. Let's not forget that Harden started his solo act on step-backs. It's about time to bring the patented move back. To appease Moreyball, take the shot in the paint. If Harden is tired, let Lou, Bev, or Gordon run the play. Harden camping out in he corner would allow him to rest during play, and it keeps defensive stalwart Kawhi Leonard away from the play. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Harden is too unselfish. If he shoots the ball on multiple possessions in a row, it's almost as if he feels required to pass the ball on the next possession. He made the wrong decision multiple times in game 3 by driving and kicking the ball out to the corner even when the help defender stayed home. Harden has to keep shooting if that's what the Spurs are making him do. The Spurs are heavily relying on their bigs to block shots. While Gasol and Aldridge are formidable down low, they are not known as quality defenders. Harden has to jump earlier into the Spurs' rim protectors in order to increase the chances of being fouled. If he waits too long and takes the ball into the teeth of the defense, all the 7-foot protectors have to do is keep their hands up. Take what the defense gives you. Get the Spurs defense off balance. Gregg Popovich adjusted to the Harden/Anderson pick-and-pop by putting the primary defender on Ryan Anderson. The defensive switch when Anderson picks for Harden is gladly made. If Pop is going to put Leonard or Danny Green on Anderson to begin the play, then Harden needs to call Clint/Nene for the pick, or go one-on-one with who's on him. Leave Anderson in the corner to ensure that Leonard or Green stay honest.
It's not surprising, but it's too bad that this is one of the truly smart analytical type posts here instead of all the generic hysteria stuff, and not a single response. You nailed on the head how the Spurs are effectively messing up Harden's drives with the fake-doubling stuff.
that's hilarious, I was just reading this post at the same time you were responding and thinking along the same lines. Good post, OP.
Excellent post I still think they can adjust, though they have to make their shots I believe that they can win the series even with these adjustments made by Pop, if Lou, Gordon and Nene help Harden if they don't they'll be fishing soon
The Spurs are doing what OKC did to James ... They are making him be a scorer vs an assist man . Game 1 , they let James pick them apart to the tune of 14 assists in 3 quarters . Statistically last game James played very well . 43 ****ing points on 14/28 is great . Sure 5 turnovers is not ideal , but he had 3 steals as well . He was 5/13 from 3 which isn't great , but it's definitely not awful .. In fact what is that ? 40 % ? Lol , I take it back ... That is pretty good The issue is that without easy looks from James , the rest of the team struggles . Lou was our answer to this last series , but he's struggled so far . My idea would be to say hey if you wanna make James a scorer we will take it . James missed Clint ( it seemed) for about 3-4 easy alley oops . If James is going to be our scorer and get into the paint , that connection needs to be on point ... Becuase it's at that point when the scoring becomes just too much, too efficient . As much as it sucked to watch , it was a pretty close game and those alley oops would've made the difference IMO
Great thread but it makes me feel worse. Does anybody remember teams winning against this strategy? We will feel great when Harden has 30 at half but bad when he blows layups in the 4th. It is like the bball equivalent of rope-a-dope. If this is how it has to go, I would think Lou will have to play more and way better in Harden's role to keep Harden fresh.
It's all true, however, the Rockets are not built to get 2 points instead of 3. And that's unfortunate, but impossibly true. The key points I think are: a) We won't score enough points with our defense if we are missing 15 three pointers. b) Our shooters are so used to shooting 3's they can't makes 2's anymore. c) Those big leads or bursts leave us playing a different game, a much tighter game than we are used to d) I really don't think D'Antoni has prepared the team for this eventuality, nor did the regular season. e) So hard to change. Players are creatures of habit, which explains why Harden continues to kick out and drive to the rim.
Remember though, the Rockets' strategy isn't threes only. The strategy is actually high value shooting. Morey and company have deemed that to be three pointers, free throws, and layups/dunks. If those shots are being effectively defended, the next most valuable shot becomes one step away from the rim. The bunny hoppers and floaters. Shots inside the paint. 10 feet or less. It's not quite a mid range shot. The percentage is higher than a jump shot which is worth just as much. Short range shots also create space for the pocket pass downlow. Right now, the Spurs are clogging the restricted area because they know Harden will end up there. That's the sole job of the Spurs' big men. They are relying on the help defenders on the perimeter to force the ball oit of Harden's hands. If he keeps it, he'll be right where they want him at the rim. To alleviate the pressure on the paint, take the high percentage shot away from the rim and inside free throw range. The arbitrary chart would look like this: Free throws = very high percentage; 1 point Rim = layups/dunks : very high percentage; 2 points Short = 10 feet or less : high percentage; 2 points Mid = 15-22 feet : average percentage; 2 points Long = 23-25 feet : slightly below average; 3 points
