I think Astros would have preferred the pick and be able to use the money to sign someone else. That said, Rasmus is worth the contract and the Astros needed a LF if he left so it isn't a big deal.
You're assuming the Astros only want Rasmus for 1 year or that they won't front load a 3 year contract that on average is 12-13 million per year. It could very well be structured yr1@16m, yr2@12m, and yr3@8m.
Being prepared for him to accept the offer and wanting him to accept it are two different things. Of course we'll never know what he/they truly wanted - but I can't imagine making Colby Rasmus the highest-paid player on this team by a sizable margin was high on their offseason to-do list. The concern isn't enough plate appearances; it's money. They're now paying two OFers $25MM next year; given other needs, do they have another... $15+MM/ year for their OF/DH? That's $40+MM they'd be investing in, essentially, LF/CF/DH/4th OF.
Some posters wrote that they think Luhnow was hoping he wouldn't or was somehow surprised that he did accept. If Luhnow and the Astros didn't want him back, they wouldn't have made the offer. You don't think that playing every day could help to make him more consistent at the plate? I think an everyday Rasmus could hit in the .250 range with an OPS around or above .800. He is capable of it and has done it in the past.
I do not/never had any FO connections, beyond peripherally. I worked with an entirely different group and would occasionally cross into baseball operations - but fairly rare. Do you have FO connections? I'd be interested to know the internal thinking...
He's done it once (2013) since 2011 - and he wasn't playing everyday... Even with that outlier of a season mixed in, his numbers the past four years: .237/.305/.439/.743; OPS+ of 102. (Extract 2013, and his numbers look like this, btw: .228/.246/.424.) He's a + defender with a mediocre bat. I would have loved for that $16MM to go elsewhere.
Yes, but Rasmus is the first player to ever accept the QO. I doubt this is viewed as a terrible thing by Luhnow, just probably slightly unexpected. This decision has more of an effect on Tucker. Barring injuries, I don't see him getting many starts over the foursome of Rasmus, Gomez, Springer and Marisnick. Really think he's either playing first base, or one of Tucker or Gattis will be dealt with the other being the everyday DH.
What do you feel is his true 1-year value? To me, its probably around $12 million... considering he got $8 million last year, they're simply likely to get overall production on par with the average MLB salary for a player of this level on a 2 year deal (provided they don't end up working a long-term deal with him). He was also the highest paid OF "by far" going into last season... with overall payroll expected to go up anyways, things are just pretty much regressing to the norm. Additionally, if you completely jettison Rasmus... you still have a sizable hole to fill in the OF... without any clear-cut way to do it other than either spending a ton of money (more years/money than Rasmus), giving up prospects, or simply trying to make a go of it with a Tucker/Marisnick platoon.
Whatever some other team is willing to pay him... I'd rather explore those other options first, frankly. If he's content becoming the only player in league history to accept a QO and settle for a one-year deal to stay here, my guess is, if you couldn't find anything better, he'd still be available. I just think he's an exceedingly mediocre offensive player and that the team needs to move away from boom/bust hitters.
Agreed, but having four outfielders and two DHs on the roster means that Hinch/Luhnow will have to go forward with one less pitcher on the 25 man roster, which I doubt they want to do.
I think we've established that you don't think much of Rasmus. Whick is OK, to each their own. What I see is a versatile OF, who has posted a very respectable .791 OPS over the last 3 seasons. Including the postseason his OPS was over .800 last year. I agree that we need to move away from the low OBP high K player, but we can do that by replacing Gattis, Carter, and Valbuena. A full season of Gomez over non hitting Marisnick will help in that regard as well. I think getting rid of Rasmus because other guys on the team also have that issue is throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
I'd rather trade Gattis and platoon Tucker and White/Duffy since all those players can actually play a defensive position. I feel like a pure DH (who isn't one of the best hitters in the league) is a waste of roster spot.
But what do "you" think his salary should be? But the QO had to be extended prior to exploring any other options... pretty sure the front office did their homework and figured he would attract attention elsewhere (hence why you have to extend the QO so you can get something in return). The fact that he accepted it merely means he's committed to being an Astro... at that point, would you rather him work to sign a multi-year deal at a lower salary (but more years?), or just have him on a year-to-year deal with no long-term commitment? Sounds like you wouldn't have even wanted him back at last year's salary... which didn't prevent the Astros from going out and addressing other needs.
#1 There is no salary cap, but there is still a budget. #2 How is it well established that is the type of team we will be? Based on one year? #3 Obviously if Luhnow was that worried about it, he never would have made the qualifying offer to begin with. They balanced the pay off (getting a #1 and pool money) against having to pay him $16,000,000 for a single season. He took their QO, (I believe he is the first one ever to take the QO) and the Astros are comfortable enough. He fills a hole in the outfield (although I would have liked an upgrade).
Tucker had an OPS over .800 against righties last year. When you consider that he was a rookie, that isn't bad. He had nearly a .500 SLG against righties. If he can become a little more patient, he has the chance to be a force from that side. The problem is that Gattis hits better against righties than lefties, so he and Tucker are duplicative. I suspect one of them will be dealt. I do agree with your idea of platooning at a couple spots though.
I'm with you; my issue isn't with Rasmus, specifically (I think he's a perfectly decent baseball player); I think my issue is more with his position. If the goal is to find at least one, but more likely two high-OBP guys, and we assume some combination of Carter/White/Reed/Tucker is going to cover 1B, we're down to LF, 3B and DH as opportunities to find those high OB guys and finding one to play 3B, I think, is going to prove incredibly harder than LF and/or DH. Well, we've now sunk $16MM into LF, so we're down to 3B/DH. Obviously, there's a chance Reed/White or an external entity might be the answer at 1B... but a) Rasmus cuts into your money to go get a 1B; b) they'd be fools to assume anything if Reed/White is indeed the answer. Does that make sense?
I've honestly given it zero thought. I don't really care, as long as another team is paying it... They didn't do enough homework.... I have no idea what Rasmus could have gotten on the open market, but it's obvious: 1) he wasn't interested in leaving; b) he wasn't terribly interested in a long-term deal. So unless a team was willing to offer a 1-year/$16MM deal - and he wanted to go there... chances are, he would have been available.
